Wednesday, 26 December 2012

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?


Winter 2012/13 Weather Forecast Update

December 2012

The first half of December began on a very cold note for much of the country, it also brought periods of snow to parts of the UK including the south, along with blizzard conditions to parts of the north within the given time frame as suggested in the early November forecast release.


The remainder of December has been largely dominated across many areas by rain and strong winds from Atlantic low pressure systems. Even though our original December forecasts (produced in June and early November) stated that a period of moderation couldn't be ruled out around mid-month, with the potential for some extremely windy and wet conditions to develop, the Atlantic themed regime has been far more dominant than expected for this particular forecasting period (hence the wetter than average conditions, rather than drier than average). This part of the forecast has therefore proved unsuccessful on this occasion. However, can others please take into consideration how far ahead these forecasts are issued in comparison to others, and the disclaimer statement about deviations and exact timing of scenarios that is attached to them.

Had the colder conditions from Eastern Europe developed as our forecast and many others expected it to (including the BBC and Met Office), we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 or worse (the coldest December in 100 years), which was also forecast by myself in January 2010 and August 2010 (11 months and 5 months ahead of the event occurring – please see forecast archives and accuracy @ 


Mean temperatures for December 2012 were almost -3C below the seasonal average up until this point of change too.




Claims from the media and headlines in reference to “THE COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS” were also immediately corrected on our behalf, on the date they was released. The archived posts are available to view in the following link below dated 17th November 2012:


A separate posting from ourselves was also made on the 19th November 2012 in the BBC Paul Hudson blog titled “What's behind the coldest winter for 100 years headline?”


(Please see comments section (number 14) from James Madden of Exacta Weather in the BBC link below.


The same information as above was also posted in updates to our followers on Twitter and Facebook on the same dates as above.

Just for the record, our forecast actually stated “with the POSSIBILITY of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES”, somewhat different to the coldest winter in 100 years. It also stated that this was most likely to occur in the December to January period of the upcoming 2012/13 winter.


So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

January and February 2013

In the short term, the Atlantic themed regime looks likely to persist for the first third of January or up until around the mid-month point at the very least. This is likely to bring a mixed bag of mild, wet, and windy weather, with some interspersions of colder weather at times too. This topsy-turvy weather pattern is also likely to result in a number of snow events too, but especially more so across some northern parts of the country. However, as we progress throughout the remainder of January and into the start of February, it is likely that it will become progressively colder, even severely cold at times (especially across northern and eastern parts of the country). This is also likely to bring a number of major snow events across the country during this period, which also includes areas to the south.

Little or no amendment is therefore required to the remainder of our detailed 2012/13 winter and snow risk dates forecast that is available to subscribers in the link below for this given period. We also expect these conditions to persist into the start of spring 2013, with the potential for some record-breaking weather at times in terms of snow, cold, and warm spells too (also available to subscribers in the link below).


Please also feel free to check out the short range section for you area, which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day


Update added: 26th December 2012 (20:15)

Friday, 21 December 2012

*Special Winter Update* 2012/13

*Special Winter Update*

The current mean CET is -1.4C below the seasonal average for December.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Had the beast from the east developed as many others also expected, we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 (mean temps were almost -3C below average at this point).

http://news.sky.com/story/1022049/snow-alert-cold-weather-beast-to-hit-uk

However, we did also state in our early November forecast that:

"a brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some EXTREMELY WINDY conditions to develop at times", 

Although this period of moderation has been less brief than originally anticipated, it certainly has been extremely windy for this forecasting period as suggested.

The Met Office also forecast cold to very cold for December after our forecast was issued
Claims from the Met Office about this winter in the link below about their supercomputers being more accurate than ever in October (after our original winter forecast was issued), that the tax-payer has funded.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355056/Britain-set-to-freeze-in-long-Arctic-winter 

Exacta Weather does not receive any kind of government/public funding whatsoever, yet our long-range forecasts and methodology proves far more successful than the waste of space number crunchers! Please see link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html


Winter is also far from over (January & February), and we also expect potentially record-breaking conditions during the (spring 2013) period too @

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
Added: 21st December 2012
 

Thursday, 13 December 2012

13th December 2012 Update

Thursday will begin on another chilly note for most parts before low pressure begins to move gradually eastwards. With the cooler air still in place across the UK, this will bring the risk of some heavy snow at times across higher ground in parts of the north, with the risk of some lighter sleet and snow showers to some lower levels too. As we head into Friday the low pressure and weather fronts will continue to move eastwards, although these are likely to become quite slow-moving. This is likely to bring some further snow showers across higher ground in the north, with the risk of some further sleet and snow showers to some lower levels of the country too, but especially more so across higher ground in parts as far south as the Midlands/southern England.

Elsewhere will then see the development of some rather wet and very windy conditions as we head into the weekend. This will also bring some much milder conditions to parts of the south, and although parts of the north will be milder than of late too, it will still feel chilly with the continued risk of some wintry precipitation, especially across higher ground.

However, it won’t be long before the cold and wintry weather begins to establish itself across the country quite widely once again.

The original and detailed December outlook that was made available on the 9thNovember 2012 to subscribers also stated:

"A brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some extremely windy conditions to develop at times"
Update added: Thursday 13th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see:


Please also see the short range section for your area that is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of model suggestions:


 


Thursday will see snowfall across higher ground in parts of Scotland, in particular in parts of southern Scotland. It will also be quite chilly in these parts with the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop at times. By Friday further sleet and snow showers will become more prominent in parts of eastern Scotland. It will also feel much cooler in parts of the north throughout Friday too.


As we head into the weekend, we will see a continuation of wintry weather across Scotland. There will once again be the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop again across higher ground, and it will also feel much colder for most parts of the UK too, especially in parts of the north (excluding the far south). The wintry weather is more likely to be confined to the east in these parts on Saturday too. Sunday will bring further snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland, with the potential for some moderate to heavy falls of snow at times. There may also be the potential risk of some sleet and snow showers across higher ground in parts of northern England and to the east of the country throughout the course of this weekend and into next week too.


Update added: Thursday 20th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly


For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see (includes free white Christmas snow forecast):


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html


You can also enter our FREE white Christmas 2012 competition to win a scientific weather station in the link below:


http://www.exactaweather.com/-New__White_Christmas.html


 

Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Paul Hudson BBC Blog Post


Firstly, Exacta Weather is very pleased that this BBC blog and Paul emphasised on the HEADLINE of the newspaper from Saturday about the "coldest winter in 100 years".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/11/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte.shtml

This was also corrected on our Facebook page, dated blog, and our loyal followers were also alerted with tweets on twitter. We also absolutely agree that headlines sell newspapers, but unfortunately we do not write or have any influence on the headlines that sell them. We personally can't see many people rushing out to buy a copy of something that was less appealing in nature.

Our forecast actually states and always has since earlier this year (23rd June 2012 - First Issued) that: There is the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES during the upcoming winter (most likely to occur in the December to January period).

Somewhat different to the COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS!

Our recently released private forecast from the 9th November 2012 also states:

There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favourable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures.

We also expect February to be much milder after a potentially cold and snowy start to the month, which is also an official month of the meteorological winter.

As for Mr Hudson’s comments about "little known Exacta Weather" and "a tiny private weather company", people are free to judge this for themselves in the following links below:

http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2010/12/08/voluntary-forecaster-proves-the-met-office-wrong-again-61634-27786536/

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/exactaweather.com#

Last year’s forecast may have contained unusually low accuracy in comparison to our usual success rate, but this is something that we have quite openly admitted to on many occasions. However, we certainly was correct about the winds that the Met Office failed to miss and also send out a relevant warning for

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/scotland/forecast-is-grim-for-the-met-office-but-are-they-at-fault-for-missing-big-gail-1-2043601

For the others who have decided to contact us about the glorious summer that never happened

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/321080/Glorious-summer-is-on-way

Fortunately, this had nothing to do with us and we played no part in the production of this forecast or the headline, but it is funny how we get the blame and constantly reminded about this too (it works both ways Mr Hudson).

However, a more accurate piece from early summer dated the 15th June 2012 actually stated:

“James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.” (Exactly what happened)

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

James Madden - From little known Exacta Weather & a tiny private weather company that has consistently proven the Met Office wrong on many occasions with their incorrect long range forecasts of mild winters and BBQ summers!

Saturday, 17 November 2012

Potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES...

There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favorable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures.

Snippet from snow risk dates and temperature forecast available (Produced and made available on 9th November 2012) @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html



Sunday, 4 November 2012

October & November Forecasts 2012

October
October is likely to feature near or below-average temperatures as a whole, although some interspersions of milder weather are also likely to develop at times especially in the southern half of the country. A number of frequent wet and very windy or exceptionally windy periods are also likely to develop for many parts of the country at times too. The cooler periods of weather will also see the development of some overnight frosts in places. These cooler periods will also be accompanied by the first falls of snow and some wintry showers in places, especially across higher ground in parts of the north as we progress throughout October.

Result = First falls of snow as predicted + a mean Central England Temperature (CET) of -1.0C 

November
November is likely to feature below-average temperatures as a whole. It is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month and into the start of winter, with the development of some quite severe frosts in places. These cooler periods of weather will be accompanied by further falls of snow across higher ground, and these are also likely to develop across some lower levels of the country at times too. It is also likely to be a relatively drier month overall in terms of rainfall amounts. However, some further periods of wet and windy weather are still probable to develop at times too.

Result = Pending...

The long range winter forecast for 2012/13 that was published on the 23rd June 2012 also stated:

1. A number of exceptional and unusually strong windy periods are also likely to develop at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter period. Some of these winds could also prove to be very damaging and potentially record-breaking in places.

2. The cold and wintry conditions are also likely to arrive earlier this year i.e. in autumn.

Also stay tuned to the 4-day forecasts that are continuously updated on model suggestions at regular intervals throughout each day. Thank you for visiting Exacta Weather.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

Added: 1st October 2012 16:22PM on ExactaWeather.com

Friday, 3 August 2012

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The summer to date has been largely dominated by low pressure due to a displacement of the jet stream. In Layman's terms, this has allowed some extremely wet and unusually windy weather to hamper many parts of the country over a prolonged period of time throughout this summer. 

The following news article from the start of summer also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.
(Daily Express – Friday 15th June 2012 here)

There has also been a large number of flooding events across the country throughout this summer too. The exact timing for the first of these major flooding events was slightly out by a few weeks in terms of my original long range summer forecast. However, we must allow for some standard deviations in weather forecasting and consider that this statement was originally made in February. The forecasting suggestions of flooding from the later part of July onwards still hold some validity, due to some further heavy and potentially thundery downpours that are likely to develop in places over the coming weeks. However, I did manage to recognise the potential for some of these flooding events to arrive earlier and highlighted on this within my weekly and monthly forecasts (also see Floods, Floods & More Floods – Issued 29th June 2012 here).

The following news article also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned heavy rain and the risk of severe flooding would continue into next week. (Daily Express – Saturday 30th June 2012 here)


August also looks like repeating a similar trend, for the most part, although a major pattern change to warmer and drier weather for many is still possible in the later part of this month and into September. However, forecasting confidence has only ever been of medium range for this pattern shift to occur. The alternative and less likely scenario is for a continuation of the cooler and unsettled pattern with a few nice days thrown in here and there until early September. If this pattern shift does occur as my original summer forecast issued in February suggests, then many parts of the country can look forward to a decent run of prolonged sunny spells and very warm temperatures. It may even turn extremely warm in the southern half of the country at times. The August Central England Temperature (CET) is also more probable to come in at more near or possibly above average if this shift occurs too.

Regardless of a possible pattern change to drier and warmer later in the month, a major point is that we have still experienced another cool and exceptionally wet summer as a whole. Another summer of this magnitude is something that I have emphasised on strongly since very early this year. To date, June and July have been exceptionally wet, but they have also been rather cool too. The mean CET was -0.6 below average for June, and -0.5 below average for July. Now I often refer to the CET, as it is a key indicator of climate change. Regardless of those who say it only covers a small area (usually the warmists during cooler summers and winters); the fact still remains that this is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (over 350 years old). The CET is also a statistically useful indicator for a much wider area, as it can be applicable as an agent for northern hemisphere temperatures too.

I also stated in my original summer forecast issued in February that:

If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years (27th February 2012).

I also stated in the same forecast that:

I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters (27th February 2012).

My main concern lies with my forecasting parameters, which suggest that cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters will become the norm for us now, not all of them, but the vast majority of them. We must also consider other important factors such as reduced growing seasons and the problems this will create for agriculture, for which we will need to start making adaptations for.

All of these statements was made by myself, when Royal weather experts and many other forecasters were suggesting a summer of drought and scorching temperatures. The last of the hosepipe bans were also lifted recently too. These are also the same forecasting parameters that have been used within the production of the long range 2012/13 winter weather forecast.

Original Summer Forecast – Issued 27th February 2012 here
  • We are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole
  • I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer
Start of Meteorological Summer + June – Issued 22nd May 2012 here
  • I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for June
Rest of Summer - Issued June 14th 2012 here

  • The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country.
July + Major Flooding UK – Issued 20th June 2012 here
  • I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for July
August + Olympics Forecast – Issued 20th July 2012 here

UK Winter 2012/13 Forecast - 3 page PDF report (Dec,Jan,Feb) available here

Thursday, 28 June 2012

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

After further flash flooding across parts of England and northern England yesterday, the remainder of this week and into next week will also offer no real respite in these unsettled conditions. The brief period of much warmer temperatures turned out to be relatively short-lived, and temperatures will now begin to ease towards more near or below the seasonal average for most. Friday will begin on a generally drier note for most. Outbreaks of rain and blustery showers will also develop and become more widespread throughout the day, especially in some parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also be quite windy and generally cloudy throughout today too. There may be the occasional period of sunshine in between these showers and cloudiness, but the best of any decent sunshine and drier weather will occur in some parts of southern/south-east England.

The weekend will see a bit more of a mixed picture developing. It will also initially remain quite unsettled across parts of Scotland and northern England. There will also be some further showery outbreaks of rain for many throughout Saturday, especially in parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales. Some of these showers are once again likely to turn quite heavy and potentially thundery in places throughout Saturday too. It will also be generally cloudy and quite windy at times throughout the day, making it feel much fresher than of late for most. However, it will be drier throughout some southern and eastern parts on Saturday, and the best of any decent sunshine and warmer temperatures will once again occur in these parts. Sunday may shape up a little better in terms of some developing sunny periods, especially in some parts of southern England and Wales. However, cloudiness and some further showery outbreaks of rain are likely to develop in places. Some of these showers could once again turn quite heavy in places, especially in some parts of the north.

Looking ahead to later next week, and the picture looks set to turn very unsettled again. Another area of low pressure looks set to bring a further period of very wet and windy weather to many parts of the country. Unfortunately, some of this rain is likely to turn very heavy and persistent in places again. This is of particular concern as many parts of the country have recently experienced some very high levels of rainfall, and with the already high river and water levels that we are seeing from this at present, there is a potentially high-risk of some further severe disruption from flash flooding in many parts of the country throughout next week. 

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

As we head into July, we are likely to experience a continuation of very unsettled weather types across many parts of the country. July will also replicate June in many ways, as it will once again be dominated by periods of cool and very wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in normal temperatures in many places for the time of the year. I also expect the Central England Temperature (CET) to come in at below-average for July too.
Now although we have already experienced a number of flooding events in places throughout the start of the meteorological summer so far, I also suggested the most prone time frame for any such major flooding occurrences (based on my own personal methodology, calculations & science).

Key points from my summer 2012 forecast – issued in February 2012
  1. So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole.
  2. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times.
  3. I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer.
  4. My forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.
YouTube Summer Forecast 2012 - (Issued 27th Feb 2012)

Unfortunately, that prone period still concerns me much more than June in regard to a possible string of major flooding occurrences across the country. If we allow for a standard deviation of a week or two from the given dates above and how far back my summer forecast was actually issued, from around mid-July onwards we are likely to be at significant risk of experiencing some very heavy rain deluges and exceptional flooding across the country. This unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some strong winds at times throughout this period too.

Thursday, 14 June 2012

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country. This dominant pattern is also why the country experienced a record-breaking cold and wet summer during last year (as forecast in January 2011), when all three months of summer came in at below-average in terms of temperature. This is in part due to the continued low levels of solar activity and how it also intrinsically alters major factors such as cloud coverage. Weak solar activity is also influential on predominantly negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

There is the potential for a possible shift in this pattern as we progress throughout August and into September, which could result in some warm or very warm periods of weather at times within these months (forecasting confidence is medium range). However, if a pattern shift does not occur throughout the final summer month of August, then we will be facing a summer of similar magnitude to last year in terms of temperature or colder.

This is also why I stated in my original summer forecast in February “I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either.”

Saturday, 2 June 2012

Start of Summer 2012 + The Coldest May in 100 years

Start of Summer 2012

The start of the meteorological summer has seen a marked drop in temperatures and a return to more unsettled weather in comparison to the warm and sunny and weather that we experienced in the later part of May.

(Please see original summer forecast issued in Feb 2012 below/archives & original June forecast issued in May 2012 below/archives)

The Coldest May in 100 years

Firstly, this claim/prediction never came from myself or Exacta Weather. My original May forecast also stated that temperatures were more likely to be near-average or below-average for the May period too. Now even though the warmer weather that we experienced in the latter part of May was much more extensive and prolonged than myself and most other forecasters (who have any shred of honesty towards their readers) had originally anticipated, it could have quite easily of gone the other way too.

Temperatures were almost 2C below-average until the final part of May, hence the reasoning behind my original prediction for near-average or below-average temperatures as a whole for the May period. My original spring forecast also stated the potential for some warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times as we progressed throughout the May period too (issued almost three months ago). Now although the coldest May in 100 years headlines proved to be incorrect for a certain forecaster, I am also not aware of any headlines or long term predictions from the Met Office that appeared to indicate a mini heatwave for the latter part of spring either.

In a nutshell, we are currently in a rather disordered period of time that will bring some difficulties to certain aspects of weather forecasting/computer models, due to the magnetic changes that are occurring within the sun and here on Earth. These factors also have an important bearing on earthquake and volcanic activity as covered in my earlier archived posts and videos. The general theme for the coming years and decades will still largely consist of cooler wetter summers/colder snowier winters for the UK. However, some people will still try to lay false claims in predicting the warmer weather that occurred in May, whereas others such as those with (warmist agendas) will utilise this and any future periods of warmer weather to their full advantage, whilst they still have the ability to do so.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Solar Activity + Start To Summer 2012 + Winter 2012-13

Solar Activity + Start To Summer 2012 + Winter 2012-13

There has recently been a large amount of hype and global media reports surrounding the sun entering a new Maunder/Dalton minimum type state.

Having looked into this in more depth, the bulk of it appears to stem from claims in regard to the quadrupole/quadrupolar sun from the Japanese Astronomical society and international media reports dated from as early as 20th April 2012.


The important factors that I have gathered from this information is that:

According to the Japanese Astronomical society, the magnetic shifts in the sun replicate those that occurred during the “little ice age” when the River Thames used to freeze over in London. Their data suggests that the sun is about to enter a period of reduced solar activity/hibernation, even though the exact opposite is meant to be happening, and in accordance with the professional and scientific predictions to date.

Although this is nothing new in terms of the claims that I have been consistently making in regard to our future weather and climate, it is further weighting towards my scientific suggestions and personal methodology. There are also far easier methods of arriving at this conclusion before the release of this scientific information from the Japanese Astronomical society.

These changes have also occurred much earlier than the leading scientists/professional bodies were anticipating.

I published the following information in an update on the 27th February 2012 (several weeks before the release of this information from the Japanese Astronomical society).

“We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating.”

I have also published/provided the following information on the subsequent dates:

Mr Madden said he believes harsh winters are here to stay. "I think we could be headed towards that," he said. "I believe this is just the start of that cycle." (The Herald Ireland – September and October 2011).

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.” (Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead, that could even replicate little ice age conditions or worse. We could well be heading for a new Maunder minimum. (6th September 2010 – Archived on blog and Youtube channel).

I simply want to make as many people aware of my science theories as possible, because if they are correct, there are some very tough and cold times ahead. (1st November 2009 – Archived on blog).

The sun is currently blank of sunspots and solar activity is at very low levels, striking fears of huge global cooling on earth, similar to the Sporer, Maunder, or Dalton minimum. (22nd January 2009 – Archived on blog).

I also made all of these statements when global warming had a fairly tight stronghold upon the scientific and global community from the alarmists. This particular subject will now be questioned by many in time to come. I have also made very strong scientific suggestions as to how this intrinsically alters our weather and climate.

Winter 2012-13

I strongly emphasised on the strong winds throughout the winter period of 2011/12 in August, before any other suggestions from any other forecaster. I also suggest that unusually strong winds will again be problematic at times during the upcoming autumn/winter period too.

As for next winter, the Met Office representation/scientist who stated “we are currently expecting a series of milder winters” will be incorrect about the upcoming 2012/2013 winter (Aired BBC 2 - 6thNovember 2011).

I also expect that the “series of milder winters” statement was made due to the unexpected rise in solar activity during the late part of 2011, and the expected rises being forecast by other professional bodies for the future (when I have consistently argued otherwise).

I expect large parts of this winter to be very cold and exceptionally snowy in comparison to last year (forecasting confidence is quite high). I also expect these conditions to arrive earlier, rather than later this winter. There may even be the potential for some of the coldest/snowiest conditions in at least a century at times within the upcoming winter. More detailed information to follow on this shortly in the UK winter 2012-13 forecast/updates.

Start of meteorological summer – June 2012

The start of the meteorological summer will bring a wide variation of unsettled weather types across the country. June will also be hampered by periods of cool and wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in temperatures for the time of the year in places. Some of these showers will also turn particularly heavy and thundery in places, with the potential for some further wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow in places (especially across higher ground in parts to the north – in what will be officially summer). The unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some very strong winds at times throughout June too.

Any periods of prolonged warmer and settled weather are relatively slim throughout June. However, one or two widespread warm are sunny periods are likely to develop, but I expect these to be very brief in nature. The best of any drier and brighter weather to be had throughout the month, will more than likely feature in Scotland and some parts of the north. Elsewhere, is likely to experience a generally unsettled and very wet theme throughout June as a whole.

Temperatures as a whole are also likely to be near or below-average for June. However, I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below-average for June (the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old).

(Original summer 2012 forecast was issued nearly three months in older posts below)

I'm taking some short leave to spend some much-needed time with my family, whilst also conducting some important weather-related research. In the meantime, you can still check the latest short-range weather forecasts for your region, that are continually updated at regular intervals throughout each day.

Make the best of the more settled and warmer weather at present.

Don't forget to enter the free Olympics and Euro 2012 competitions for your chance to win a free holiday voucher/weather station.

Sunday, 22 April 2012

UK Weather Forecast – May 2012


UK Weather Forecast – May 2012

As we head into May and the final part of spring, the picture is set to remain relatively cool for the time of the year. There will also be some further wintry showers of sleet and snow at times, especially across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England. There will, however, also be some periods of warmer and pleasant weather at times, but these are likely to be relatively short-lived in nature. Any periods of warmer and milder weather are more likely to be varied in terms of location throughout the month, whist also becoming confined to a certain part of the country. Basically, they are unlikely to become extensive and prolonged across most parts.

The temperature for the May period as a whole is therefore, likely to be near or below-average. The Central England Temperature (CET) for April also currently resides at an abysmal -0.5C below-average. A likely continuation of this pattern as we progress throughout the final part of spring, will mean my original hypothesis of a near or below-average spring in terms of temperature was just about right. This comes after the third warmest March on record, when others were forecasting an above-average spring due to the conditions being experienced at the time. Others were also suggesting nothing as they don't forecast this far ahead.

I stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too”


It is also likely to be relatively dry in terms of rainfall amounts throughout the May period too. However, drought-stricken southern and eastern parts will experience some much needed and heavy rainfall at times. This will unfortunately fail to ease the drought concerns in these parts as we head into the start of the meteorological summer.

I also stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter”

“The rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole”

My original hypothesis of near or below-average rainfall amounts/drought fears for the spring period will also prove to be just about right, if the remainder of my spring forecast balances out as expected.


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.