Sunday, 31 December 2017

December Snow Dates Success & Proof + More On The Way In 2018

Our subscribers December 2017 forecast actually said and got the following right (Issued in September)...

1. Potential major mild spell of weaather
2. Three x widespread snowy periods for the EXACT dates from 100 days ahead

Actual screenshot of our subscribers forecast from almost 100 days ahead showing this in the link below (please view below):


Below is further CONCLUSIVE PROOF LINKS/EVIDENCE/PICS of successful snow dates for the exact dates we told our subscribers & we always say + or - 1 to 2 days for how far in advance the snow dates forecasts are issued (100 days ahead)

In addition to this please note that we ALWAYS issue our long range forecasts before ANY other forecasters in the world and to get such accuracy for each snow dates is extremely difficult and has often been termed "impossible" by standard meteorology, yet we have conclusively proven otherwise in the below and would be grateful if people can view what we are achieving here at Exacta Weather️
First correct subscriber snow dates from 100 days ahead = 7th - 9th December


https://news.sky.com/story/britain-set-for-coldest-night-of-the-year-as-heavy-snow-expected-11187440

In addition to this - One of our much earlier forecast quotes from November + PROOF of JANUARY Freeze/Snow was provided for public consumption via national media stating the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, warned Britain is facing a repeat of the 2010 big freeze that brought -20C in Scotland and lows of -10C in the south.

He said: "We are certainly looking at one of the coldest winters SINCE 2010 and La Nina could have some impact on this.
"We could be looking at some record-breaking weather patterns, more so from JANUARY ONWARDS in terms of cold and snow.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/661580/uk-weather-bbc-forecast-britain-christmas-snow-big-freeze-2010-cold-winter
Invest In Our Future + Non Biased Science & Help Us To Realise Our Future Vision & Values For 2018 Onwards...

Exacta Weather is a small but well recognised weather company who would like to expand and improve on our services and the types of forecasts we offer via the website to the public for FREE. If we had less than 1% of the funding that the Met Office receive each year and ONLY 10 members of staff to rotate on 24 hour day shifts - we are certain that we could at the very least match or challenge the ridiculously high 1500 members of staff who serve the UK Met Office.

We have no hidden motive, other than being passionate and obsessed by the weather, with hopes of adding usability to long range weather forecasting, and in despite of what others/competitors might say...

On this note I (James Madden) would also like to add that I am only 36 years of age, and that I still have a lot to offer in terms of my academic and weather forecasting career, of which I fully intend to bring Exacta Weather along with me for every step of the way!

At present we are limited to the totality and overall services that we could offer to the world. However, if we had that extra and reliable manpower needed to run such operations - we do believe our vision is attainable and we will do everything within our power and hard working ethic to make this happen in the very near future.

So watch out as we implement new additions to the website from 2018 onwards... (Most of them FREE)

UPDATE ADDED: 31st December 2017 - James Madden


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Our NEW SPRING 2018 & Preliminary SUMMER 2018 Long-Range Weather Forecasts Are Now Available To Order + Jan, Feb & Further Ahead Snow Dates

Friday, 24 February 2017

Storm Doris Arrives On Cue To Cause Havoc & Cold/Mild Swings Continue??? + Spring/Summer 2017 Forecasts Update

Storm Doris Arrives On Cue To Cause Havoc & Cold/Mild Swings Continue??? + Spring/Summer 2017 Forecasts Update

Storm Doris wreaked widespread havoc across the country throughout Thursday and has resulted in most and if not all national newspapers covering this on their front pages on Friday 24th February. Flight cancellations, school/road closures, widespread power cuts and blizzard-like heavy snow also caused mayhem across parts of the north.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/23/will-rebuild-storm-doris-batters-uk-internet-reacted/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-39050392

Our forecasts first warned of this weather event and blizzard-like snow in places well before it appeared on the radars of any third-party forecasters or TV forecasts, and we also noted our concerns in regard to some exceptional winds and blizzard conditions forming across parts of the country, and particularly in the north, for this exact period within the following media article from the 12th February and the dated FB posting from the 17th February:

SOME forecasters warn we are not out of the woods yet with more cold weather likely to pounce before the end of the MONTH.

Exacta Weather’s James Madden said: “There is a risk of a return to the cold weather pattern with further snow events possible throughout the remainder of February.”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2845137/britain-set-for-warm-weather-window-as-forecasters-predict-temps-to-hit-double-figures/

Despite the upcoming spell of very mild weather for the time of the year in the coming days, a real shock to the system is in store from the mid to end part of next week as Britain heads back into the freezer. Initially snow will start falling across the far north before spreading to many other northern and western areas towards the end of next week and into next weekend. Even parts as far south as Central England and the Capital are at risk of some falling snow in places within this period, and with it also being quite WINDY across the north at times, there is the risk for some developing BLIZZARD conditions and snowdrifts, particularly, but not necessarily restricted to higher ground.

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather/photos/a.448095755238348.102148.275256805855578/1274699172577998/?type=3&theater

Despite a mild southerly flow forming across the country throughout this upcoming weekend, winds will begin to freshen for many during the latter part of the weekend and into the early part of next week. This will also coincide with nearby low pressure and a number of weather fronts trailing across the country throughout the Monday to Thursday period. It is within this period and particularly in the early hours and evenings that we are also likely to see rain turning to snow in many northern and western areas, even some parts as far south as central and southern England could see some wintry showers popping up in places during Monday evening.

Looking further ahead sees the overall theme remaining on the cool side as we begin the meteorological spring on Wednesday 1st March, and in addition to this there will also be a continuation of some sporadic wintry showers in among a mixed outlook of alternating temperatures from cold/cool to normal/mild at times.

At this point we would just also like to reiterate the alternating pattern of mild-cold swings and what we actually stated in regards to this in our several month ahead forecasts and within various media for the passing winter period.

The opening paragraph of our winter 2016/17 forecast made available to our subscribers in JULY 2016 - stated all of the following:

The upcoming 2016/17 winter period for the UK and Ireland is likely to deliver a MIXED pattern of alternating weather types from near normal/mild temperatures to cold/very cold temperature SWINGS. However, as with in recent years of the more mild and stormy weather dominating proceedings, we are expecting some sort of a reversal to a more dominant theme from the colder weather this time around, in particular, in the NORTHERN half of the country. Even some southern parts and the capital should have some winter weather to actually talk about this year, and despite being MUCH MILDER at times in these parts. Some UNCERTAINTY remains as to the SOUTHERN half of the country and as to whether more NEAR NORMAL temperatures may prevail over ABOVE-AVERAGE this year, and this could change the outlook to something of more of a wintry and colder nature at a LATER point in the forecasting period for these parts.


COPY OF PDF WINTER FORECAST 2016/17 - CLICK HERE

In addition to the above subscribers forecast - the following Daily Express winter 2016/17 weather article from the 29th September 2016 also stated the following:

“This does not dispel some LARGE temperature swings to MILDER and potentially stormy weather conditions throughout THIS winter period, but we do expect LESS STORMY weather conditions throughout this winter and in comparison to the last few winter periods.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/714262/UK-snow-long-range-weather-forecast-cold-winter-2016-Britain-freeze

On a personal note to all of our followers and the lack of updates, unfortunately, I myself have had an array of health related issues during the past few years and have recently been diagnosed with a mix of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis, and in addition to some very recent and major spine surgery due to an accident. However, my health is now under control and being managed correctly in terms of medication and with some help - the plan is to expand on the services we offer via Exacta Weather between now and mid-spring and to continue building on our name and scientific methodology for the future.

We will therefore be returning in mid-spring with a large number of new and free weather additions to enhance your future visits to Exacta Weather.

In the meantime, further enhanced details are also available within the SPRING 2017 forecast that covers the March-May period in full  - including details of when we can expect further wintry weather/snow, and our first taste of something sunny and warm this year. In addition to this the preliminary SUMMER 2017 forecast also covers the June-August period in full, and extensive details of what we are currently expecting for this forecasting period on our current indications - Will we finally get a SETTLED HOT one or continue with our run of poor summers this year?? (our last several summer forecasts have contained at least moderate to high accuracy overall in terms of temperature predictions and the timing of multiple weather events/heat blasts).

http://www.exactaweather.com/subscribe-1.html

UPDATE ADDED: Friday 24th February 2017 - James Madden

Sunday, 10 April 2016

Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16 + SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES! + Summer 2016


Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16

Firstly, may I apologise for the lengthy delay between website updates. Unfortunately, I suffered quite a significant back injury that required urgent surgery, and for which I am still in the recovery process (Please also see HERE).

For the third consecutive year/winter we have now experienced yet another mild winter!

An easy way out would be for me to say that these things sometimes just cluster together in this fashion, which they do, or that it's just the weather. However, I feel it is important to cover what I feel has happened and where we are heading in the future after a review of our methodology.

The problem over the last few winters has been the lack of any sustained heights to support any periods of prolonged cold and snow. Take last year as an example (2014/15), which was almost a cert for a very cold and snowy one from ALL the early signals. In essence, high pressure in Greenland and the Azores has not been playing ball to give us more favourable winter conditions for prolonged cold and snow. We have also continued to see storm after storm, and so much so, that they are now being named due to their frequency. This is not something we expect everyone to understand or agree with - However, we will see a continuation of these storms for most of our upcoming winter periods, and whether it be mild or cold in terms of temperature (something we have always stated and forecast before they arrived each winter). However, when we do get any prolonged cold weather across our shores, large low pressure systems will spin off the east coast of the United States and head straight towards the UK/Ireland due to long term Gulf Stream changes. This is also where the extra moisture will come from to encase us in ice storms and excessive amounts of snow in future winter periods, and just as they did in December 2010 (Ice Age Circulation Patterns).

The Gulf Stream is not a constant, and when it alters at a state of such magnitude, it holds long term implications on our weather patterns. The exact weather patterns may stutter along the way, but our indications and other ample areas of science favour cooling (Ice Age circulation patterns) and not warming for this developing scenario. This is also initially and intrinsically brought about by low solar activity, and a lack of earth directed solar flares/Gulf Stream changes.

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf is one of the worlds leading climatologists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Stefan also backs up our long term science on 'Gulf Stream changes' within the article below, and despite some short-range/seasonal inaccuracies from ourselves, the same article also features some largely based Exacta Weather science in relation to these Gulf Stream Changes and in terms of long-range climate forecasting (nothing to do with salinity in our science - more how the Gulf Stream is heated).

Stefan also works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... and he also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream 
HERE:

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”

After further analysis of our short-range and seasonal forecasting for the last 3 winter periods, we must also accept some responsibility for underestimating solar activity levels during this 'transitional' period to a much quieter sun. Some unexpected peaks in solar activity have taken us by surprise in their overall strength, and despite a continuation in the lack of sunspots and their overall size. We do feel that these factors have altered the accuracy of our overall forecasts, but we can assure you that we are now moving away from this stronger part of the solar cycle. We should have also give more weighting to the El Nino conditions, and how they can vary and bring milder winter conditions to our shores.

Despite the milder winter we did have some shots of cold and success with snow dates, in particular, with the snow disaster that struck the United States. We have also had several weeks of cool-cold weather as the 'more dominant' weather pattern. This type of pattern arrived in the second half of February and reduced the mean CET for this particular month by over 3C within this period. This cool to cold weather also continued into the start of the meteorological spring to deliver a cold March, and wintry incursions have also continued well into April (our seasonal forecast also favoured April to be a warmer month overall but with wintry incursions). We also expect some interesting developments in May - Although some warm to much warmer weather is also on the way, too.
SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES!

This is something that we have analysed repeatedly and for all our future winter forecasts we will be giving 2 possible outcomes with a percentage rating for each one to subscribers. This will be easier to manage and also more accurate due to the extra factors that we will be incorporating within the 2 outcomes. However, in the direction that we are heading in terms of solar activity at present, we can expect at least 70%+ of all our future winter periods to be cold/exceptionally cold and snowy (6-7 of the next 10 winter periods will be cold/snowy).

Further details will also be released on this and the new format in May/June within our Preliminary Autumn & Winter 2016/17 forecasts to subscribers.
To conclude; A recent scientific article within the Daily Mirror titled "A mini ice age is on its way and this is what the UK will look like" also heavily features Exacta Weather science and states the following:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mini-ice-age-way-what-7242051

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, has previously said the UK should brace itself for colder winters from this year onwards.

He said: “This serious climate situation is also something that is unlikely to correct itself overnight as repeated analysis of past cycles and other contributing factors in relation to the current solar output and size/frequency of sunspots reveal to us quite conclusively that we are heading into something like a Maunder Minimum. "A time when the Thames used to freeze over regularly in London - or a fully blown ice age is inevitable in the coming years and decades.” Episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830.

WINTER 2015/16 REVIEW UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 10th April 2016 - James Madden


Summer 2016 - Shades of 1976? Possibly...

Some of you will also be aware or have seen the following below from early March - Please be warned that this comes with caveats and subscribers should read their full reports.


http://theliberal.ie/hot-summer-ahead-weather-forecaster-james-madden-predicts-that-ireland-will-experience-a-heatwave-this-summer/

Our forecast for last summer fared reasonably well for overall accuracy (see below) - and although August wasn't as hot as we had expected, it was only the month of summer that came in above-average in terms of temperature (CET).

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The cold and wet 2015 summer for the UK/Ireland + media articles from several months ahead with accurate descriptions from Exacta Weather:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect​
The Met Office also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain in the below article and stated that it was 'impossible' to predict.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html