Thursday, 14 May 2015

NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK/IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

Articles on the upcoming El Nino point towards December 2010 as a marker for when this last occurred - as within the following Daily Mail article below:


However, we experienced a strong La Nina event (cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean) throughout the second half of 2010, not an El Nino event (warming phase of the Pacific Ocean). We did however experience an El Nino event during the harsh winter of 2009/10, but this does not specifically mean that we are facing similar conditions throughout the upcoming winter of 2015/16, or that this is an attributing factor towards it. In Layman's terms no two of these events in the Pacific Ocean whether it be warming or cooling has the same impact on weather events across the UK and Ireland.

We also forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 on the basis of solar factors by stating the following on the 1st November 2009;

“I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold?. “Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK”.


and again with the event we forecast from several months in advance for December 2010 (the coldest December in 100 years);



We also can't compare or rank these types of warming or cooling events in the Pacific to our weather patterns over a long time scale, as the information we have only takes us back over the last several decades. This doesn't leave us with enough comparative data to make a strong and confident assessment of how El Nino or La Nina events can impact our weather patterns in the long term for the UK and Ireland. It is also difficult to asses the strength of these events until the warming or cooling phase has concluded. 

Similar stories developed about the arrival and strengthening of an El Nino event throughout last year (2014) from certain climate scientists which never materialised (as suggested in our early 2014 reports to subscribers via ExactaWeather.com).


A good hypothesis would be to consider the current period of solar activity that we currently reside in, and how solar variability can impact these cycles and other factors such as cloud cover. In terms of the current solar cycle and energetic eruptions that are earth directed, we happen to be in a period of extremely low solar activity that emits less solar radiation and favours more dominant cooler phases in the tropical Pacific.

Unfortunately, solar output is still considered as minuscule in terms of overall effect on our climate and weather patterns, and the sun-climate link is still refuted by many. It is also not correctly incorporated into model projections that currently suggest a development for a strong El Nino event later in the year. They therefore have a tendency to over-hype what is unlikely to be a strong El Nino event, just as they did throughout 2014. In reality, the solar radiation output is simply not there at present and it hasn't been there in recent years to create any major temperature amplifications of the Pacific.

However, there is a long-term relationship with a number of indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with solar variability. In terms of the summer period for the UK and Ireland throughout 2015, we are more favourable to experience a rather cool and wet period with a large number of untimely summertime storms, and parts to the far south will benefit from any better weather at times. This will be due to a prolonged displacement southwards of the jet-stream and a trend towards negative territory for the NAO and AO indices, in particular, with the NAO - not any developing El Nino conditions. However, all is not lost as there will be some occasions when the jet-stream will flirt northwards throughout the upcoming summer period (June to August). This diversion of the jet-stream will allow some warmer weather to push in from the near Continent at times throughout this summer, in particular, throughout the August to September period, but in general it is likely to remain displaced to the south of the country.

All as indicated in our 200+ day ahead subscribers report for the 2015 summer + various media articles in advance of current indications from conventional forecasters/meteorologists.

The following Daily Express article from the 9th April 2015 also stated the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.
“Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”


In terms of the upcoming winter period - we could be facing some potentially rather cold and snowy periods at times (exact details available in subscribers reports of particular months), but this would be in part due to low solar activity, and not the development of any strong El Nino conditions that are currently being over-hyped from elsewhere (also further details in subscribers reports).

A dated version of this update has also been posted here to refer to at a later date.


UPDATE ADDED: Thursday 14th May 2015 (10:45am) - James Madden

Friday, 3 October 2014

Another Cold & Snowy Polar Vortex United States U.S. Winter 2014-15 ? - Weather Forecast



http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long... (more detailed forecast information)

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather (free weather updates on Facebook)

Is the United States U.S. set for another cold and snowy winter throughout 2014-15? Exacta Weather correctly identified the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years of 2013/14 due to stratospheric warming events and jet stream/polar vortex displacement from several months in advance.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

The 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated the following information to subscribers:

September 2013: Warm first half/settled at times + flash floods/large hail &
very windy/stormy mid-month

A number of large scale low pressure systems and hurricane remnants are also possible during the early part of September and around the MID-MONTH point too. Dependant upon their exact development at the time, many parts of the country can expect some extremely stormy conditions that will be accompanied by some very strong winds, which may range between 80-100 MPH in some areas (Originally published on 10th April 2013)

The month ahead forecast also stated for the 10th - 21st September:

However, it is then likely to turn rather unsettled and become quite windy at times as we progress from the MIDDLE part of this forecasting period and into the next forecasting period, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. Some of these winds are also likely to turn potentially damaging on a widespread scale at times across the country too.

SEPTEMBER WEATHER REPORT 2 - CLICK HERE

MET OFFICE WARNING NOW ISSUED AT 11:31AM (Sat 14th Sept 2013)

The Met Office now concur with the above weather scenarios and currently have a weather warning issued for gusts of 50 – 60 MPH, with the potential for 70 MPH in exposed coastal and mountainous areas in the northern half of the country.

Additional Information:

However, it would be advisable to pay attention to any further weather warnings that are likely to be updated from the Met Office over the next few days. The standard computer models may underestimate the potential strength and scale of these winds until the last minute. A small difference in wind speed and scale of what the Met Office are currently forecasting and in comparison to our 5 month ahead forecast, can prove to be the difference between a 'storm' and a 'violent/hurricane force storm'. This can also make a big difference in terms of major structural damage, large waves at sea + increased flood-risk, and potentially life-threatening conditions.

Update Added: Saturday 14th September 2013 (14:35) – James Madden

The UK & Ireland Autumn/Winter & October/November Month Ahead Forecasts Are Also Available In The Links Below:




You can also sign up to our brand new subscribers login service below @


Monday, 27 May 2013

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Tuesday will bring a day of showers for many, and a number of these are likely to turn thundery and heavy in places. However, there will be some sunny periods in places in between the showers, and parts of the north will fare somewhat better in comparison to the south. It will also be particularly windy in parts of the far north as we progress throughout Tuesday too. Some of the heavy and thundery showers are also likely to continue into the early part of Wednesday across some southern parts of the country, with the potential for some heavy hail showers to develop in places for this part of the forecasting period too. The remainder of Wednesday is then likely to remain unsettled with some further showers and periods of sunshine. Some of these showers may also turn heavy again in parts of the north, whilst parts of the south/east may fare somewhat better in terms of some developing sunny periods. Thursday looks set to bring another day of sunny spells and widespread showers, although the showers are likely to be somewhat lighter in nature than in previous days. Most of the showers are then likely to dissipate as we progress throughout the day to leave a clear evening with some periods of developing sunshine for many. It will also feel warmer than of late in the best of the sunshine too. As we progress throughout the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, there is the potential for some much warmer and drier weather to develop, but especially more so across the southern half of the country. However, there will still be the risk of some more unsettled weather at times across parts of the north and to the west for this part of the forecasting period, and a number of these showers could turn potentially thundery in places. It will also feel rather chilly for the time of the year under clearer skies in the evenings too.

Our original spring forecast issued over 200 days ahead to subscribers stated:

As we progress throughout the remainder of May and into the start of June, it is likely to become potentially very warm. Depending on how warm this period becomes, temperatures are more likely to come in at near or below the seasonal average for the May period as a whole.
 
  With the start to the new working week set to feature at below the seasonal average in terms of temperature for many, and the timing of the infiltration of warmer weather to the UK, this is now likely to result in the 5th consecutive below-average month in terms of the mean Central England for 2013.

January -0.3C

February -0.6C

March -3.0C

(March was equal coldest since 1883 in terms of the mean CET - as forecast in early November to subscribers)

April -0.4C


May -0.6C (provisional, to the 26th)

This is especially significant as the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, it is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too. Our detailed, and appropriately named blog (ice age circulation patterns) that dates back over the last 5-6 years and Exacta Weather/YouTube channel, have consistently stated that the science behind global warming was totally unfounded.


Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:
Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

*NEW* UK/IRE more detailed month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

Thursday, 28 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead



Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)


Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:


Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

Sunday, 24 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely
As we head into the Easter week, the theme is set to remain cold with well below-average temperatures for the time of the year for most of the country. Monday through to Wednesday will also see the development of some further wintry/snow showers, but especially more so in parts to the north and east of the country. The evenings will also become especially cold under clearer conditions, and with this comes the risk of some severe frosts, but especially more so in parts of the north and Scotland. However, there will also be some reasonable sunny periods and drier conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the west of the country. By Thursday and Friday it is likely to become a touch milder than of late in some parts of the south, but there will once again be a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some parts of the north and east. Some of these showers could prove to be heavy at times in these parts, with the possibility of some decent accumulations in places at times too, but especially more so across higher ground. An area of low pressure is also likely to push in across some parts of the far south and west for the later part of this forecasting period. There is a relatively high-risk that this could bring some further snow as it progresses northwards, but especially more so in some parts of Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. It will also become rather windy in some parts of the north and west for this part of the forecasting period and into Saturday too. As we head into the Easter weekend, weather fronts will bring the risk of some further wintry/snow showers, with the possibility of them becoming slightly more widespread for this part of the forecasting period. There is also the possibility of some slightly milder temperatures in the southern half of the country, but it is likely to remain rather cold in the northern half of the country. However, the alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see it staying cold for most parts throughout this part of the forecasting period too. This is now likely to result in one of the coldest March periods on record, and as predicted in our spring forecast that was issued to subscribers nearly 150 days ago.
Update added: Sunday 24th March 2013 19:01
Detailed Spring 2013 Forecast – Now Only £4 or FREE with the Summer 2013 Forecast in the link below:

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)

Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)
Forecasting period - 18th to 24th March
As we start the new working week it will once again turn rather cold for the time of the year, in particular, across parts of Scotland and northern England. The colder weather will also be accompanied by some windy conditions and wintry showers of hail, sleet, and snow in these parts throughout Monday too. There is also likely to be some wintry showers across higher ground in some parts of the south as we progress throughout Monday too. Tuesday and into Wednesday will then see it turn very cold for most parts, especially across parts of the north/Scotland. This will also be accompanied by some further widespread and wintry showers for many parts throughout Tuesday too, and a number of these are likely to turn quite heavy in places. This brings with it the risk of some snow accumulations in places, but especially more so across higher ground. Thursday and into Friday will bring a similar picture, but especially more so across parts of the west, Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. This is also likely to lead to some further accumulations of snow, but especially more so in parts of northern England and Wales, where some notable accumulations are possible. The wintry weather will also be accompanied by some strengthening winds for this part of the forecasting period, leading to the development of some drifting snow/blizzard conditions in places. These conditions are also likely to prevail into next weekend, but especially more so in some northern and eastern parts of the country. However, there is the potential for some periods of sunny and drier weather in parts, with the possibility of some milder conditions in parts of the south.
Our snow risk forecast that was made available on the 17th February also stated (30 days ahead):
This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16th - 24th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions.
Our original spring forecast that was made available to subscribers in early November (nearly 140 days ahead) stated:
The start to spring 2013 and the March period is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions for the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be an unusually cold and exceptionally snowy month for many parts of the country. Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. There is the potential for some exceptionally heavy falls of snow to develop across many parts of the country. The northern half of the country is also likely to experience the worst of the cold and snowy conditions. However, it is also likely that the southern half of the country will experience a number of major snow events at times throughout the March period too. It is highly likely that there will be a number of school closures and disruption to the public transport network across the country too (purchasers of this forecast will therefore receive a free snow risk dates and temperature forecast in the early part of 2013 for this given period).

The March period will also be particularly windy at times too, this will lead to the development of some especially high powered winds. This is also likely to result in some very dangerous blizzard conditions at times under the right conditions, especially in the southern half of the country. It is also likely to be a relatively dry start to spring in terms of rainfall amounts across the country, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall.
The detailed Spring 2013 (March, April, May) and Summer 2013 (June. July, August) is now also available to subscribers in the link below
The following Daily Express article from the 20th February 2013 also stated:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time.
“There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”
Update Added: Sunday 17th March 2013 (21:49)