Tuesday, 23 December 2014

UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 Update

UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 Update
Real time satellite images from over the past few months have clearly indicated a growing and colossal area of much colder than average surface temperatures in the middle of the Gulf Stream/Atlantic (Please see image below).


This is of quite some significance as the Gulf Stream effectively acts as a heat machine for our shores, in particular, during our winter months. An example of this could be a location such as Newfoundland, who is on a similar latitude to the ourselves, but don't inherit the influence of the Gulf Stream. They, therefore, experience much harsher winters.

Without the influence of this vital heat source, we can expect a horrific winter to develop with frequent blizzards/strong winds and extremely cold conditions across many parts of the country later this year. Another typical trait of an abnormal Gulf Stream would also result in an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is in a negative phase, it allows for strong northerly and easterly winds to develop. If we couple this with the expectations for a predominant Arctic Oscillation (AO) from the October pattern index (OPI), and the Siberian snow cover indications, there is every chance that we could be looking at a very similar scenario to the winter of 1962/63.

Why is this happening?

We are currently in a period of prolonged low solar activity, and when the sun is less magnetically active, fewer UV rays are emitted from solar storms, as there are less sunspots. The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

During the winter period of 1962/63 the famous big freeze took a hold of the country from around Christmas until the spring of the following year because of a similar situation. Several feet of snow fell in parts of southern England; temperatures dropped to below -20C (-4F) in places, and snow remained on the ground for months on end. We could also be looking at a very similar time-frame and scale of events this time around, in particular, as we progress throughout the latter part of December and into January and February.

The following article for the 14th February 2014 also stated:

However, Earth directed solar flares will now become very scarce, and I could hedge a quite safe bet due to the scientific evidence that I have analysed repeatedly, that 70-80% of all winters in the coming decades will now see huge and frequent swirly low pressure systems and strong winds attacking our shores due to Gulf Stream changes. However, this will be under a colder airmass from a negative NAO due to the period of even lower solar activity that we are about to enter.

Please also refer to what our YouTube video from the 2nd October 2014 stated in regards to solar activity and the Gulf Stream for this winter @ 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF4mbX6IOLg
 Our 7 month ahead subscribers report and the following media articles all stated the following in chronological order.

The following media article from the 10th October 2014 stated:

“A number of potentially very cold periods of weather and major snow events are likely to develop throughout this winter across large parts of the country, in particular, throughout the latter part of December and into January.

“February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times. “However, there are some conflicting signals for December at present, which could introduce some milder and rather unsettled interludes of weather at times to begin with.”


The following media article from the 12th November 2014 also stated:

January and into February are likely to offer some potentially severe cold spells of weather and significant snow for many parts of the country, and this is when winter will begin to take even more of a stronghold this year.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/534304/Winter-weather-forecast-UK-heavy-snow-months-polar-vortex

The following media article from the 26th November 2014 also stated:

“December is now odds-on to be a colder than average month with a number of widespread snow events, however our forecasting parameters have always indicated that there is the potential for some even more severe wintry conditions in the run-up to and after the new year.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540052/UK-weather-December-forecast-heavy-snow-winter-freeze

The following media article from the 27th November 2014 also stated:

“It is likely to turn very cold at times with the risk of some widespread snow events throughout December, and a notable period of exceptional cold and significant snow should be taken seriously throughout the latter part of December and into January.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540842/Weather-forecast-winter-bitter-freeze-UK

The following two most recent articles for the UK and Ireland (Daily Mirror) then emphasised on this further in the links below:

One weather expert has warned Britain will be hit by an Arctic blast which is set to arrive over theNew Year and hang around for at least a month.



We would like to thank the Express/Mirror for the coverage of our forecast which we provided voluntarily for public consumption/awareness.

Further and more detailed information will/has been released on the Gulf Stream/AO/NAO to subscribers in our weekly/month ahead updates

UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 14th December 2014 - JAMES MADDEN



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Friday, 3 October 2014

UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014-15 - Cold & Snowy/Big Freeze



UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014-15 - Cold & Snowy/Big Freeze

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

James Madden - Exacta Weather

Another Cold & Snowy Polar Vortex United States U.S. Winter 2014-15 ? - Weather Forecast



http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long... (more detailed forecast information)

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather (free weather updates on Facebook)

Is the United States U.S. set for another cold and snowy winter throughout 2014-15? Exacta Weather correctly identified the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years of 2013/14 due to stratospheric warming events and jet stream/polar vortex displacement from several months in advance.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

The 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated the following information to subscribers:

September 2013: Warm first half/settled at times + flash floods/large hail &
very windy/stormy mid-month

A number of large scale low pressure systems and hurricane remnants are also possible during the early part of September and around the MID-MONTH point too. Dependant upon their exact development at the time, many parts of the country can expect some extremely stormy conditions that will be accompanied by some very strong winds, which may range between 80-100 MPH in some areas (Originally published on 10th April 2013)

The month ahead forecast also stated for the 10th - 21st September:

However, it is then likely to turn rather unsettled and become quite windy at times as we progress from the MIDDLE part of this forecasting period and into the next forecasting period, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. Some of these winds are also likely to turn potentially damaging on a widespread scale at times across the country too.

SEPTEMBER WEATHER REPORT 2 - CLICK HERE

MET OFFICE WARNING NOW ISSUED AT 11:31AM (Sat 14th Sept 2013)

The Met Office now concur with the above weather scenarios and currently have a weather warning issued for gusts of 50 – 60 MPH, with the potential for 70 MPH in exposed coastal and mountainous areas in the northern half of the country.

Additional Information:

However, it would be advisable to pay attention to any further weather warnings that are likely to be updated from the Met Office over the next few days. The standard computer models may underestimate the potential strength and scale of these winds until the last minute. A small difference in wind speed and scale of what the Met Office are currently forecasting and in comparison to our 5 month ahead forecast, can prove to be the difference between a 'storm' and a 'violent/hurricane force storm'. This can also make a big difference in terms of major structural damage, large waves at sea + increased flood-risk, and potentially life-threatening conditions.

Update Added: Saturday 14th September 2013 (14:35) – James Madden

The UK & Ireland Autumn/Winter & October/November Month Ahead Forecasts Are Also Available In The Links Below:




You can also sign up to our brand new subscribers login service below @


Monday, 27 May 2013

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Tuesday will bring a day of showers for many, and a number of these are likely to turn thundery and heavy in places. However, there will be some sunny periods in places in between the showers, and parts of the north will fare somewhat better in comparison to the south. It will also be particularly windy in parts of the far north as we progress throughout Tuesday too. Some of the heavy and thundery showers are also likely to continue into the early part of Wednesday across some southern parts of the country, with the potential for some heavy hail showers to develop in places for this part of the forecasting period too. The remainder of Wednesday is then likely to remain unsettled with some further showers and periods of sunshine. Some of these showers may also turn heavy again in parts of the north, whilst parts of the south/east may fare somewhat better in terms of some developing sunny periods. Thursday looks set to bring another day of sunny spells and widespread showers, although the showers are likely to be somewhat lighter in nature than in previous days. Most of the showers are then likely to dissipate as we progress throughout the day to leave a clear evening with some periods of developing sunshine for many. It will also feel warmer than of late in the best of the sunshine too. As we progress throughout the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, there is the potential for some much warmer and drier weather to develop, but especially more so across the southern half of the country. However, there will still be the risk of some more unsettled weather at times across parts of the north and to the west for this part of the forecasting period, and a number of these showers could turn potentially thundery in places. It will also feel rather chilly for the time of the year under clearer skies in the evenings too.

Our original spring forecast issued over 200 days ahead to subscribers stated:

As we progress throughout the remainder of May and into the start of June, it is likely to become potentially very warm. Depending on how warm this period becomes, temperatures are more likely to come in at near or below the seasonal average for the May period as a whole.
 
  With the start to the new working week set to feature at below the seasonal average in terms of temperature for many, and the timing of the infiltration of warmer weather to the UK, this is now likely to result in the 5th consecutive below-average month in terms of the mean Central England for 2013.

January -0.3C

February -0.6C

March -3.0C

(March was equal coldest since 1883 in terms of the mean CET - as forecast in early November to subscribers)

April -0.4C


May -0.6C (provisional, to the 26th)

This is especially significant as the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, it is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too. Our detailed, and appropriately named blog (ice age circulation patterns) that dates back over the last 5-6 years and Exacta Weather/YouTube channel, have consistently stated that the science behind global warming was totally unfounded.


Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:
Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

*NEW* UK/IRE more detailed month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

Thursday, 28 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead



Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)


Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:


Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

Sunday, 24 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely
As we head into the Easter week, the theme is set to remain cold with well below-average temperatures for the time of the year for most of the country. Monday through to Wednesday will also see the development of some further wintry/snow showers, but especially more so in parts to the north and east of the country. The evenings will also become especially cold under clearer conditions, and with this comes the risk of some severe frosts, but especially more so in parts of the north and Scotland. However, there will also be some reasonable sunny periods and drier conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the west of the country. By Thursday and Friday it is likely to become a touch milder than of late in some parts of the south, but there will once again be a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some parts of the north and east. Some of these showers could prove to be heavy at times in these parts, with the possibility of some decent accumulations in places at times too, but especially more so across higher ground. An area of low pressure is also likely to push in across some parts of the far south and west for the later part of this forecasting period. There is a relatively high-risk that this could bring some further snow as it progresses northwards, but especially more so in some parts of Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. It will also become rather windy in some parts of the north and west for this part of the forecasting period and into Saturday too. As we head into the Easter weekend, weather fronts will bring the risk of some further wintry/snow showers, with the possibility of them becoming slightly more widespread for this part of the forecasting period. There is also the possibility of some slightly milder temperatures in the southern half of the country, but it is likely to remain rather cold in the northern half of the country. However, the alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see it staying cold for most parts throughout this part of the forecasting period too. This is now likely to result in one of the coldest March periods on record, and as predicted in our spring forecast that was issued to subscribers nearly 150 days ago.
Update added: Sunday 24th March 2013 19:01
Detailed Spring 2013 Forecast – Now Only £4 or FREE with the Summer 2013 Forecast in the link below: