Wednesday, 5 November 2014

An 'Excessively Abnormal' Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - An Indicative Sign Of Big Things Coming To The UK & Ireland? Cold/Snow/Blocking

An 'Excessively Abnormal' Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - An Indicative Sign Of Big Things Coming To The UK & Ireland? Cold/Snow/Blocking

The exact signals that we need to be seeing for some even colder weather and widespread snow events throughout the second half of November, and into early/mid December are now starting to fall in place - with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) both doing exactly what they should be at this stage and in terms of our 5-6 month ahead calculations/forecasts.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are closely related and affect temperature patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Factors such as the Siberian snow cover, and sudden stratospheric warming relate to these negative trends.

 
When the AO is in its negative phase (as above), it allows for an easier intrusion of cold Arctic air to lower latitudes. When the closely related NAO is in a negative phase (as above), it allows for cold easterly winds and cold winters in Europe, with a blocking situation that our forecasting parameters favour over Western Europe.

The impressive Siberian snow cover for this year also offers a high correlation for a negative AO throughout much of the upcoming winter and into next spring. We can therefore expect a significant amount of colder intrusions and prolonged diversions of the jet stream/blocking within this period.

If we look at the latest AO readings, it is really starting to trend towards an 'excessively abnormal' negative value from around the middle of November, and this will also be in response to the recent stratospheric warming over Siberia. The excessively abnormal value from the AO index is also important, as it indicates that higher than normal pressure is present over the Polar region and to what extent of cold we are looking at throughout this winter, and in terms of a big event like December 2010 or March 2013 (which were both forecast from several months in advance for the specific dates within our previous long range forecasts). When the AO/NAO turns negative like this, it becomes a good time to prepare for a number of Arctic intrusions and the potential for some widespread snow events (even to lower levels) across the UK and Ireland throughout the second half of November and into December.

Now this is something that the models have only just started to pick up on in the last 24-48 hours (the reason why there has been some opposition from other forecasters with our November/winter forecast). So be prepared for some backtracking from other forecasters who said this wouldn't happen. Unfortunately, when you have no other methodology or little understanding of forecasting the weather other than model watching, there is always the risk that it could come back and bite you at a later date.

So be prepared for falsified claims that we have said the coldest winter in 100 years is on the way or -27C in weeks as they backtrack - as subscribers know this has not been said in any of our reports.

As I also stated in one of the recent updates below, they do this out of fear and their own insecurity/inability to forecast long range weather events to their clients. They also choose to pass judgement on certain variables such as the headline alone (also very contradictory), without looking deeper into the content of what has actually been said within articles in "quotation marks" (the same and simplistic logic that they apply to their weather forecasting).

I even come across an article the other day from a competitor in Ireland that went as far as saying that we had said the coldest winter in 150 years. This is nothing but misleading drivel to make themselves feel or appear superior, and it is quite misleading information for the people who follow them too.

Another very recent example of our differing methodology to others + a colder than average November?

There are some indications that Bonfire Night could turn out to be the coldest of this century @ http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bonfire-night-set-4564096 

Our UK & Ireland month ahead forecasts to subscribers from 10 days earlier also stated (when many models/other forecasters were indicating a mild and unsettled Bonfire Night):

This period will also begin to feel markedly cooler to what we have experienced throughout autumn to date. As we progress towards the middle part of this forecasting period (in or around bonfire night), there is the potential for a much colder flow of air to push in across the country and temperatures are likely to feature at a progressive near to below average within this period.

Temperatures are now also likely to fluctuate at near or below-average after Bonfire Night (not above-average or mild for the time of the year). If we then consider how things are likely to develop for the second half of November, it is now becoming very realistic that November will come in as a colder than the average month overall. Exacta Weather were the only ones that forecast this within our month ahead forecast to subscribers, and in advance of standard meteorology, as we don't rely on what computer models are indicating. However, every other forecaster who relies heavily upon computer models and have similar methodology to each other, indicated above-average temps for November as a whole, including the UK Met Office. In addition to this, our October month ahead forecast that was issued in advance of standard meteorology also opted for temperatures to be above-average for the month, but if you don't subscribe to our forecasts or listen to others with hidden agendas, then you won't know this.

Based on our differing methodology that has caused some variance among other forecasters/model watchers - the following information from our 5-6 month ahead forecast was provided voluntarily to various media for public consumption in relation to November/this winter in "quotation marks" only:

“Over the coming weeks and into NOVEMBER, it is likely to turn PROGRESSIVELY COLDER, even very cold at times, in particular, in parts of the north as northern BLOCKING becomes a somewhat more prominent feature. “This is likely to bring some significant snow across HIGHER GROUND within this period.

“A number of potentially very cold periods of weather and major snow events are likely to develop throughout this winter across large parts of the country, in particular, throughout the latter part of December and into January.

“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.

“February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."

(Published 10th October - when many said it would be mild until after Christmas).

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Mr Madden warned to brace for a “shock to the system” with a “significant” snow event possible in weeks.

He said: “As we progress throughout NOVEMBER, it will begin to turn gradually cooler, in particular, WITHIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH as BLOCKING becomes a more prominent feature and the jet stream diverts further south.

“This will be due to expanding cold from the Arctic region, and this will also allow for the development of some much colder intrusions of air and snow for the UK.

“Some of the snow events are likely to be quite significant with blizzards across HIGHER GROUND, and a number of potentially notable snow events are also possible across some lower levels within this PERIOD (NOVEMBER AS A WHOLE), in particular, in some exposed coastal areas to the north and west of the country.

“We are also likely to see the development of some widespread frosts and rather extensive fog patches across the country within this period, and this will come as quite a shock to what we have experienced throughout this autumn to date.
“However, some spikes of milder conditions may also develop within this period, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country, and these will be accompanied by some rather windy and quite stormy conditions at times.”

(Published 26th October - when many were forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).

He said: “As we progress throughout November, it is going to become gradually colder across many parts of Ireland, in particular from around the MID-MONTH POINT when it is likely to become exceptionally cold at times. “This early start to what is likely to be a harsh winter is also likely to be accompanied by a number of potentially widespread snow events within this period and into the start of December. He continued: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/2011, which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.

“However, the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter period on a similar par to 2012/2013 developing, which would still support a colder and snowier than average winter throughout 2014/2015. “If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications.” He added: “February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."

(Published 29th October - when many were still forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).


Netweather in particular, has had quite a lot to say about our winter forecast. However, they are now also forecasting a cold and snowy January due to a sudden stratospheric warming event within their preliminary winter forecast. It would also appear that they are quite uncertain about what is going to happen in the second half of November and into December.

Our forecast that was issued six months ahead of their forecast, and in every media article that we have appeared within over the last few months stated: January and into February could be particularly cold and snowy or potentially record-breaking due to an SSW event occurring.

The following media article from over 20 days in advance of the Netweather preliminary winter forecast release also stated:

“If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications." 


UPDATE ADDED: 5th November 2014 (08:32) - James Madden

Friday, 3 October 2014

UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014-15 - Cold & Snowy/Big Freeze



UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014-15 - Cold & Snowy/Big Freeze

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

James Madden - Exacta Weather

Another Cold & Snowy Polar Vortex United States U.S. Winter 2014-15 ? - Weather Forecast



http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long... (more detailed forecast information)

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather (free weather updates on Facebook)

Is the United States U.S. set for another cold and snowy winter throughout 2014-15? Exacta Weather correctly identified the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years of 2013/14 due to stratospheric warming events and jet stream/polar vortex displacement from several months in advance.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

The 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated the following information to subscribers:

September 2013: Warm first half/settled at times + flash floods/large hail &
very windy/stormy mid-month

A number of large scale low pressure systems and hurricane remnants are also possible during the early part of September and around the MID-MONTH point too. Dependant upon their exact development at the time, many parts of the country can expect some extremely stormy conditions that will be accompanied by some very strong winds, which may range between 80-100 MPH in some areas (Originally published on 10th April 2013)

The month ahead forecast also stated for the 10th - 21st September:

However, it is then likely to turn rather unsettled and become quite windy at times as we progress from the MIDDLE part of this forecasting period and into the next forecasting period, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. Some of these winds are also likely to turn potentially damaging on a widespread scale at times across the country too.

SEPTEMBER WEATHER REPORT 2 - CLICK HERE

MET OFFICE WARNING NOW ISSUED AT 11:31AM (Sat 14th Sept 2013)

The Met Office now concur with the above weather scenarios and currently have a weather warning issued for gusts of 50 – 60 MPH, with the potential for 70 MPH in exposed coastal and mountainous areas in the northern half of the country.

Additional Information:

However, it would be advisable to pay attention to any further weather warnings that are likely to be updated from the Met Office over the next few days. The standard computer models may underestimate the potential strength and scale of these winds until the last minute. A small difference in wind speed and scale of what the Met Office are currently forecasting and in comparison to our 5 month ahead forecast, can prove to be the difference between a 'storm' and a 'violent/hurricane force storm'. This can also make a big difference in terms of major structural damage, large waves at sea + increased flood-risk, and potentially life-threatening conditions.

Update Added: Saturday 14th September 2013 (14:35) – James Madden

The UK & Ireland Autumn/Winter & October/November Month Ahead Forecasts Are Also Available In The Links Below:




You can also sign up to our brand new subscribers login service below @


Monday, 27 May 2013

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Tuesday will bring a day of showers for many, and a number of these are likely to turn thundery and heavy in places. However, there will be some sunny periods in places in between the showers, and parts of the north will fare somewhat better in comparison to the south. It will also be particularly windy in parts of the far north as we progress throughout Tuesday too. Some of the heavy and thundery showers are also likely to continue into the early part of Wednesday across some southern parts of the country, with the potential for some heavy hail showers to develop in places for this part of the forecasting period too. The remainder of Wednesday is then likely to remain unsettled with some further showers and periods of sunshine. Some of these showers may also turn heavy again in parts of the north, whilst parts of the south/east may fare somewhat better in terms of some developing sunny periods. Thursday looks set to bring another day of sunny spells and widespread showers, although the showers are likely to be somewhat lighter in nature than in previous days. Most of the showers are then likely to dissipate as we progress throughout the day to leave a clear evening with some periods of developing sunshine for many. It will also feel warmer than of late in the best of the sunshine too. As we progress throughout the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, there is the potential for some much warmer and drier weather to develop, but especially more so across the southern half of the country. However, there will still be the risk of some more unsettled weather at times across parts of the north and to the west for this part of the forecasting period, and a number of these showers could turn potentially thundery in places. It will also feel rather chilly for the time of the year under clearer skies in the evenings too.

Our original spring forecast issued over 200 days ahead to subscribers stated:

As we progress throughout the remainder of May and into the start of June, it is likely to become potentially very warm. Depending on how warm this period becomes, temperatures are more likely to come in at near or below the seasonal average for the May period as a whole.
 
  With the start to the new working week set to feature at below the seasonal average in terms of temperature for many, and the timing of the infiltration of warmer weather to the UK, this is now likely to result in the 5th consecutive below-average month in terms of the mean Central England for 2013.

January -0.3C

February -0.6C

March -3.0C

(March was equal coldest since 1883 in terms of the mean CET - as forecast in early November to subscribers)

April -0.4C


May -0.6C (provisional, to the 26th)

This is especially significant as the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, it is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too. Our detailed, and appropriately named blog (ice age circulation patterns) that dates back over the last 5-6 years and Exacta Weather/YouTube channel, have consistently stated that the science behind global warming was totally unfounded.


Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:
Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

*NEW* UK/IRE more detailed month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

Thursday, 28 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead



Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)


Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:


Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

Sunday, 24 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely
As we head into the Easter week, the theme is set to remain cold with well below-average temperatures for the time of the year for most of the country. Monday through to Wednesday will also see the development of some further wintry/snow showers, but especially more so in parts to the north and east of the country. The evenings will also become especially cold under clearer conditions, and with this comes the risk of some severe frosts, but especially more so in parts of the north and Scotland. However, there will also be some reasonable sunny periods and drier conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the west of the country. By Thursday and Friday it is likely to become a touch milder than of late in some parts of the south, but there will once again be a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some parts of the north and east. Some of these showers could prove to be heavy at times in these parts, with the possibility of some decent accumulations in places at times too, but especially more so across higher ground. An area of low pressure is also likely to push in across some parts of the far south and west for the later part of this forecasting period. There is a relatively high-risk that this could bring some further snow as it progresses northwards, but especially more so in some parts of Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. It will also become rather windy in some parts of the north and west for this part of the forecasting period and into Saturday too. As we head into the Easter weekend, weather fronts will bring the risk of some further wintry/snow showers, with the possibility of them becoming slightly more widespread for this part of the forecasting period. There is also the possibility of some slightly milder temperatures in the southern half of the country, but it is likely to remain rather cold in the northern half of the country. However, the alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see it staying cold for most parts throughout this part of the forecasting period too. This is now likely to result in one of the coldest March periods on record, and as predicted in our spring forecast that was issued to subscribers nearly 150 days ago.
Update added: Sunday 24th March 2013 19:01
Detailed Spring 2013 Forecast – Now Only £4 or FREE with the Summer 2013 Forecast in the link below: