Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Change Is Here For The Weather SUMMER - UK & Ireland

Change Is Here For The Weather & Change Is Here For Our New Website

For a large part of the summer to date we have experienced a rather changeable and unsettled theme for many, in particular, in many parts of Ireland, and in northern and western areas of the United Kingdom during July. In exception for one notable and widespread heat blast during the latter part of June and into early July, there has been nothing notable in terms of prolonged settled weather and exceptional warmth (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that there was the potential for a major heat blast during the end of June and early July + the major lightning and thunderstorms/flooding that followed).

However, some parts to the south of the UK have fared better at times in terms of warmer and more settled weather, although it still won't be enough to stop July from becoming the third consecutive month of below-average temperatures in terms of the Central England Temperature (CET) which is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that June and July were likely to be colder than average months overall).
To date we have seen a more southerly driven jet-stream which brings more changeable and unsettled weather to our shores. However, as we enter into the weekend of the 1st August, we are likely to see a quite significant pattern change to a more northerly driven jet-stream. This will allow high pressure to become more prominent across our shores from this weekend onwards and into much of August.

The outcome will result in more settled and largely warm to hot weather conditions for most parts of the country within this period, in particular, in the southern half of the country. There is also the potential for some exceptional heat spikes now that this pattern change is taking place, and we are likely to see a number of these developing throughout August. These could match or be similar in comparison to what we experienced in early July, but for more prolonged periods given the stage of summer that we are now entering. However, it may take a little longer to entirely nudge the unsettled conditions from some more northern and western areas than initially anticipated (please also bear in mind that the initial solar calculations for these changes in our long range forecasts were from 8 months ahead, and that we need to allow for some deviations in exact timing)
However, it won't remain entirely settled all the time, and some parts are still likely to see some occasional showers, in particular, in some of these northern and western areas and parts of Ireland, but in among any showers it will feel rather warm and pleasant for the majority of the time for most parts of the country in August. There is also the risk for some heavy and potentially thundery showers at times with these heat surges, and the additional risk of some localised flooding to be prepared for at the very least.

The following media article stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

(These exact forecast details were also released 5 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.
James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable andunsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.
"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.
"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.
"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to becooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.
"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as thejet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer, in particular in some parts to the north and east"

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office:

However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance.

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9th April 2015:
(These forecast details were also released 4 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.
These can alter longer term weather patterns around the globe and trigger anomalies in weather patterns for further ahead.
Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th February 2015:
(These forecast details were also released 2 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)
James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.
"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for Ireland in particular.
Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.
He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.
"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.
"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.
The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1st January 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder (2015).
He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.
He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.
There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.
Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.
This is a superb piece of coverage on our scientific work and analysis via the Daily Express, and despite only 'minor' and not 'major' stratospheric warming during the winter of 2014/15 for the period we stated from several months ahead (hence it not being as cold and snowy as expected overall), this media article still holds high validity for many other areas within our scientific work/long range weather forecasts that we would like to refer back to now and in future.
This really will be our last ever posting/weather update via the old Exacta Weather website until our new website goes live during the evening of the 1st August. It's out with the old and in with the new as we say goodbye to our old website that has served us for the last five years' and hello to the new and improved Exacta Weather website for the future.
In the meantime this is your last chance to take advantage of the FREE weather station offer from the Science Museum with our lifetime subs offer for only £49.99 in the link below (Never pay a penny again for our forecasts + Last few days remaining on this offer):
UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 29th July 2015 – James Madden

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

UK & Ireland Heatwave To Arrive On Cue? + Little Ice Age

Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'Little Ice Age'
A recent Met Office-led study is now warning that Britain faces years of unusually cold winters due to low solar activity.
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. "We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. "On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16."

Our much earlier comments within various media and dated scientific claims + our methodology for long-range weather and climate forecasting + weather events that we have forecast over the past 5-6 years in the links below:


UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden


Hottest Spell Of The Year To Arrive On Cue For The UK & Ireland

Temperatures will begin to rise quite rapidly throughout the early part of next week as warmer winds veer in from a more southerly direction (From Monday 29th June). This will bring some increasingly warm to hot weather with periods of bright sunshine developing for many. Temperatures could climb as high as the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and south -making this the hottest spell of weather to date for this year. However, there will be the risk of some occasional rain at times, in particular, in parts of the far north. There will also be the risk for some potentially heavy downpours and vigorous thunderstorm activity later next week, in particular, in parts of the south. However, as a whole we can look forward to a rather settled and warm period of weather to start the second month of the meteorological summer and for much of next week.

Our 7 month ahead preliminary 2015 summer forecast that was issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated for this exact period + another period that is still to come:

A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions and a more notable warmish/hot spell could develop throughout the latter part of June/start of July. This could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with, before becoming more widespread in other parts of the country later.

UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time




To celebrate the upcoming hottest weather of the year and the fact that science is now starting to accept what we have been saying for over 5 years (Please see below) - We will be offering a NEVER TO BE REPEATED 3 month trial to all of our packages below for a one-off payment of just £6.25 to the first 250 respondents.


This will include access to:


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Thursday, 14 May 2015

NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK/IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

Articles on the upcoming El Nino point towards December 2010 as a marker for when this last occurred - as within the following Daily Mail article below:


However, we experienced a strong La Nina event (cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean) throughout the second half of 2010, not an El Nino event (warming phase of the Pacific Ocean). We did however experience an El Nino event during the harsh winter of 2009/10, but this does not specifically mean that we are facing similar conditions throughout the upcoming winter of 2015/16, or that this is an attributing factor towards it. In Layman's terms no two of these events in the Pacific Ocean whether it be warming or cooling has the same impact on weather events across the UK and Ireland.

We also forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 on the basis of solar factors by stating the following on the 1st November 2009;

“I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold?. “Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK”.


and again with the event we forecast from several months in advance for December 2010 (the coldest December in 100 years);



We also can't compare or rank these types of warming or cooling events in the Pacific to our weather patterns over a long time scale, as the information we have only takes us back over the last several decades. This doesn't leave us with enough comparative data to make a strong and confident assessment of how El Nino or La Nina events can impact our weather patterns in the long term for the UK and Ireland. It is also difficult to asses the strength of these events until the warming or cooling phase has concluded. 

Similar stories developed about the arrival and strengthening of an El Nino event throughout last year (2014) from certain climate scientists which never materialised (as suggested in our early 2014 reports to subscribers via ExactaWeather.com).


A good hypothesis would be to consider the current period of solar activity that we currently reside in, and how solar variability can impact these cycles and other factors such as cloud cover. In terms of the current solar cycle and energetic eruptions that are earth directed, we happen to be in a period of extremely low solar activity that emits less solar radiation and favours more dominant cooler phases in the tropical Pacific.

Unfortunately, solar output is still considered as minuscule in terms of overall effect on our climate and weather patterns, and the sun-climate link is still refuted by many. It is also not correctly incorporated into model projections that currently suggest a development for a strong El Nino event later in the year. They therefore have a tendency to over-hype what is unlikely to be a strong El Nino event, just as they did throughout 2014. In reality, the solar radiation output is simply not there at present and it hasn't been there in recent years to create any major temperature amplifications of the Pacific.

However, there is a long-term relationship with a number of indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with solar variability. In terms of the summer period for the UK and Ireland throughout 2015, we are more favourable to experience a rather cool and wet period with a large number of untimely summertime storms, and parts to the far south will benefit from any better weather at times. This will be due to a prolonged displacement southwards of the jet-stream and a trend towards negative territory for the NAO and AO indices, in particular, with the NAO - not any developing El Nino conditions. However, all is not lost as there will be some occasions when the jet-stream will flirt northwards throughout the upcoming summer period (June to August). This diversion of the jet-stream will allow some warmer weather to push in from the near Continent at times throughout this summer, in particular, throughout the August to September period, but in general it is likely to remain displaced to the south of the country.

All as indicated in our 200+ day ahead subscribers report for the 2015 summer + various media articles in advance of current indications from conventional forecasters/meteorologists.

The following Daily Express article from the 9th April 2015 also stated the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.
“Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”


In terms of the upcoming winter period - we could be facing some potentially rather cold and snowy periods at times (exact details available in subscribers reports of particular months), but this would be in part due to low solar activity, and not the development of any strong El Nino conditions that are currently being over-hyped from elsewhere (also further details in subscribers reports).

A dated version of this update has also been posted here to refer to at a later date.


UPDATE ADDED: Thursday 14th May 2015 (10:45am) - James Madden

Friday, 3 October 2014

Another Cold & Snowy Polar Vortex United States U.S. Winter 2014-15 ? - Weather Forecast



http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long... (more detailed forecast information)

https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather (free weather updates on Facebook)

Is the United States U.S. set for another cold and snowy winter throughout 2014-15? Exacta Weather correctly identified the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years of 2013/14 due to stratospheric warming events and jet stream/polar vortex displacement from several months in advance.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

First Storm Of Autumn & Hurricane Strength Winds Set To Arrive On Cue – As Forecast 5 Months Ahead For Exact Dates + Locations

The 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated the following information to subscribers:

September 2013: Warm first half/settled at times + flash floods/large hail &
very windy/stormy mid-month

A number of large scale low pressure systems and hurricane remnants are also possible during the early part of September and around the MID-MONTH point too. Dependant upon their exact development at the time, many parts of the country can expect some extremely stormy conditions that will be accompanied by some very strong winds, which may range between 80-100 MPH in some areas (Originally published on 10th April 2013)

The month ahead forecast also stated for the 10th - 21st September:

However, it is then likely to turn rather unsettled and become quite windy at times as we progress from the MIDDLE part of this forecasting period and into the next forecasting period, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. Some of these winds are also likely to turn potentially damaging on a widespread scale at times across the country too.

SEPTEMBER WEATHER REPORT 2 - CLICK HERE

MET OFFICE WARNING NOW ISSUED AT 11:31AM (Sat 14th Sept 2013)

The Met Office now concur with the above weather scenarios and currently have a weather warning issued for gusts of 50 – 60 MPH, with the potential for 70 MPH in exposed coastal and mountainous areas in the northern half of the country.

Additional Information:

However, it would be advisable to pay attention to any further weather warnings that are likely to be updated from the Met Office over the next few days. The standard computer models may underestimate the potential strength and scale of these winds until the last minute. A small difference in wind speed and scale of what the Met Office are currently forecasting and in comparison to our 5 month ahead forecast, can prove to be the difference between a 'storm' and a 'violent/hurricane force storm'. This can also make a big difference in terms of major structural damage, large waves at sea + increased flood-risk, and potentially life-threatening conditions.

Update Added: Saturday 14th September 2013 (14:35) – James Madden

The UK & Ireland Autumn/Winter & October/November Month Ahead Forecasts Are Also Available In The Links Below:




You can also sign up to our brand new subscribers login service below @


Monday, 27 May 2013

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Tuesday will bring a day of showers for many, and a number of these are likely to turn thundery and heavy in places. However, there will be some sunny periods in places in between the showers, and parts of the north will fare somewhat better in comparison to the south. It will also be particularly windy in parts of the far north as we progress throughout Tuesday too. Some of the heavy and thundery showers are also likely to continue into the early part of Wednesday across some southern parts of the country, with the potential for some heavy hail showers to develop in places for this part of the forecasting period too. The remainder of Wednesday is then likely to remain unsettled with some further showers and periods of sunshine. Some of these showers may also turn heavy again in parts of the north, whilst parts of the south/east may fare somewhat better in terms of some developing sunny periods. Thursday looks set to bring another day of sunny spells and widespread showers, although the showers are likely to be somewhat lighter in nature than in previous days. Most of the showers are then likely to dissipate as we progress throughout the day to leave a clear evening with some periods of developing sunshine for many. It will also feel warmer than of late in the best of the sunshine too. As we progress throughout the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, there is the potential for some much warmer and drier weather to develop, but especially more so across the southern half of the country. However, there will still be the risk of some more unsettled weather at times across parts of the north and to the west for this part of the forecasting period, and a number of these showers could turn potentially thundery in places. It will also feel rather chilly for the time of the year under clearer skies in the evenings too.

Our original spring forecast issued over 200 days ahead to subscribers stated:

As we progress throughout the remainder of May and into the start of June, it is likely to become potentially very warm. Depending on how warm this period becomes, temperatures are more likely to come in at near or below the seasonal average for the May period as a whole.
 
  With the start to the new working week set to feature at below the seasonal average in terms of temperature for many, and the timing of the infiltration of warmer weather to the UK, this is now likely to result in the 5th consecutive below-average month in terms of the mean Central England for 2013.

January -0.3C

February -0.6C

March -3.0C

(March was equal coldest since 1883 in terms of the mean CET - as forecast in early November to subscribers)

April -0.4C


May -0.6C (provisional, to the 26th)

This is especially significant as the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, it is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too. Our detailed, and appropriately named blog (ice age circulation patterns) that dates back over the last 5-6 years and Exacta Weather/YouTube channel, have consistently stated that the science behind global warming was totally unfounded.


Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:
Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

*NEW* UK/IRE more detailed month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

Thursday, 28 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead



Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)


Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:


Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15