Sunday, 10 April 2016

Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16 + SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES! + Summer 2016


Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16

Firstly, may I apologise for the lengthy delay between website updates. Unfortunately, I suffered quite a significant back injury that required urgent surgery, and for which I am still in the recovery process (Please also see HERE).

For the third consecutive year/winter we have now experienced yet another mild winter!

An easy way out would be for me to say that these things sometimes just cluster together in this fashion, which they do, or that it's just the weather. However, I feel it is important to cover what I feel has happened and where we are heading in the future after a review of our methodology.

The problem over the last few winters has been the lack of any sustained heights to support any periods of prolonged cold and snow. Take last year as an example (2014/15), which was almost a cert for a very cold and snowy one from ALL the early signals. In essence, high pressure in Greenland and the Azores has not been playing ball to give us more favourable winter conditions for prolonged cold and snow. We have also continued to see storm after storm, and so much so, that they are now being named due to their frequency. This is not something we expect everyone to understand or agree with - However, we will see a continuation of these storms for most of our upcoming winter periods, and whether it be mild or cold in terms of temperature (something we have always stated and forecast before they arrived each winter). However, when we do get any prolonged cold weather across our shores, large low pressure systems will spin off the east coast of the United States and head straight towards the UK/Ireland due to long term Gulf Stream changes. This is also where the extra moisture will come from to encase us in ice storms and excessive amounts of snow in future winter periods, and just as they did in December 2010 (Ice Age Circulation Patterns).

The Gulf Stream is not a constant, and when it alters at a state of such magnitude, it holds long term implications on our weather patterns. The exact weather patterns may stutter along the way, but our indications and other ample areas of science favour cooling (Ice Age circulation patterns) and not warming for this developing scenario. This is also initially and intrinsically brought about by low solar activity, and a lack of earth directed solar flares/Gulf Stream changes.

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf is one of the worlds leading climatologists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Stefan also backs up our long term science on 'Gulf Stream changes' within the article below, and despite some short-range/seasonal inaccuracies from ourselves, the same article also features some largely based Exacta Weather science in relation to these Gulf Stream Changes and in terms of long-range climate forecasting (nothing to do with salinity in our science - more how the Gulf Stream is heated).

Stefan also works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... and he also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream 
HERE:

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”

After further analysis of our short-range and seasonal forecasting for the last 3 winter periods, we must also accept some responsibility for underestimating solar activity levels during this 'transitional' period to a much quieter sun. Some unexpected peaks in solar activity have taken us by surprise in their overall strength, and despite a continuation in the lack of sunspots and their overall size. We do feel that these factors have altered the accuracy of our overall forecasts, but we can assure you that we are now moving away from this stronger part of the solar cycle. We should have also give more weighting to the El Nino conditions, and how they can vary and bring milder winter conditions to our shores.

Despite the milder winter we did have some shots of cold and success with snow dates, in particular, with the snow disaster that struck the United States. We have also had several weeks of cool-cold weather as the 'more dominant' weather pattern. This type of pattern arrived in the second half of February and reduced the mean CET for this particular month by over 3C within this period. This cool to cold weather also continued into the start of the meteorological spring to deliver a cold March, and wintry incursions have also continued well into April (our seasonal forecast also favoured April to be a warmer month overall but with wintry incursions). We also expect some interesting developments in May - Although some warm to much warmer weather is also on the way, too.
SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES!

This is something that we have analysed repeatedly and for all our future winter forecasts we will be giving 2 possible outcomes with a percentage rating for each one to subscribers. This will be easier to manage and also more accurate due to the extra factors that we will be incorporating within the 2 outcomes. However, in the direction that we are heading in terms of solar activity at present, we can expect at least 70%+ of all our future winter periods to be cold/exceptionally cold and snowy (6-7 of the next 10 winter periods will be cold/snowy).

Further details will also be released on this and the new format in May/June within our Preliminary Autumn & Winter 2016/17 forecasts to subscribers.
To conclude; A recent scientific article within the Daily Mirror titled "A mini ice age is on its way and this is what the UK will look like" also heavily features Exacta Weather science and states the following:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mini-ice-age-way-what-7242051

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, has previously said the UK should brace itself for colder winters from this year onwards.

He said: “This serious climate situation is also something that is unlikely to correct itself overnight as repeated analysis of past cycles and other contributing factors in relation to the current solar output and size/frequency of sunspots reveal to us quite conclusively that we are heading into something like a Maunder Minimum. "A time when the Thames used to freeze over regularly in London - or a fully blown ice age is inevitable in the coming years and decades.” Episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830.

WINTER 2015/16 REVIEW UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 10th April 2016 - James Madden


Summer 2016 - Shades of 1976? Possibly...

Some of you will also be aware or have seen the following below from early March - Please be warned that this comes with caveats and subscribers should read their full reports.


http://theliberal.ie/hot-summer-ahead-weather-forecaster-james-madden-predicts-that-ireland-will-experience-a-heatwave-this-summer/

Our forecast for last summer fared reasonably well for overall accuracy (see below) - and although August wasn't as hot as we had expected, it was only the month of summer that came in above-average in terms of temperature (CET).

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The cold and wet 2015 summer for the UK/Ireland + media articles from several months ahead with accurate descriptions from Exacta Weather:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect​
The Met Office also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain in the below article and stated that it was 'impossible' to predict.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html

Saturday, 31 October 2015

Predictions This Year + Gulf Stream Science Update

To date this year Exacta Weather have forecast the following long-range forecasts with a very high success ratio to our subscribers from several months ahead:
1. The cold and wet summer for the UK & Ireland + media articles from several months ahead with accurate descriptions from Exacta Weather

The Met Office also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain in the below article and stated that it was 'impossible' to predict.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html

We have also had a very good year scientifically for our scientific claims dating back to 2009 when global warming had a stronghold upon the scientific community. However, we are now being backed up by one of the worlds leading climatologists in the following largely Exacta Weather based article about the Gulf Stream that has received 250,000 likes on Facebook!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany backs up our science within the above article, and he works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... He also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream:

​Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”​​

First Snow Arrives On Cue + More To Come, But Not Yet! & Hurricane Patricia Success

First Snow Arrives On Cue + More To Come, But Not Yet! & Hurricane Patricia Success

Recent images/media links of the first snow of the autumn - as highlighted in our several month ahead subscribers report:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34626210
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/highlands/732624/first-snow-year-falls-north-scotland/

The week ahead will bring a rather changeable theme with periods of rain developing for many, and more frequently in parts to the west of the country. However, it won't be as cool as recently as winds veer in from a more southerly direction, and temperatures could reach or be well in excess of the mid teens in parts of the south. However, it could be a different picture the further north you go with some more near normal temperatures and standard autumn type weather for the time of the year. Towards the end of the week will bring a much drier and more settled theme for many, although unsettled weather conditions could persist, in particular, in some parts of the north and west, where it will feel cooler. There is also the small risk for some additional wintry showers to develop across higher ground in the north within this period. However, some periods of strong sunshine will deliver some bright and mild conditions at times as high pressure attempts to push in across the British Isles.
Some of this warmth progressing northwards is also part of the process that will help to deliver the cold and wintry conditions later this November, with the possibility of low level snow in places from some notable wintry blasts during the second half of November.
The following Telegraph article from the 23rd October also stated the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "It does look as though the first wintry showers of the autumn will arrive over the weekend in parts of the far north. "However, on this occasion these are likely to be restricted only to higher ground and of no real significance.

"A more unsettled end to October could bring some further snow across higher ground next week, but any low level snow to other parts of the country is more likely LATER in November."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11950984/Badly-behaved-weather-is-on-the-way-as-Britains-schools-go-out-for-half-term.html

Third party computer models and other forecasters are likely to undergo some sudden and extravagant changes to some rather wintry and very cold weather conditions for later in November from in or around the 10th November onwards, despite their current outlooks at present.
More enhanced details including snow dates, snow risk forecast charts, and the UK and Ireland November PDF is available to members within the login area.

In addition to the first snow of the autumn at the weekend, there was also some major concerns and mentions of atomic bombs on the other side of the Atlantic from Hurricane Patricia.

Exacta Weather forecast Hurricane Patricia for these exact dates and for the exact locations for where it would make landfall to our USA subscribers on the 7th June - It is also available to view in the UK/Ireland members login area. Our long range forecast also stated that a major and newsworthy hurricane would be significantly downgraded once it made landfall within this period.

No casualties were recorded and Hurricane Patricia was downgraded to a much smaller category storm upon landfall.

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 26th October 2015 - James Madden (Forecast information was added earlier to subscribers)


A cold and snowy winter is on the way to the UK & Ireland - But do you want to be left behind with standard meteorology later this autumn and for the upcoming winter for snow dates/alerts? - Exacta Weather can let you know when and where it's going to snow from weeks in advance using our solar methodology... Not the day before!

If you would like to support our services/science for the future and subscribe - Please see our latest subscription offers in the link below (updated daily):​

Sunday, 6 September 2015

Indian Summer To Arrive On Cue + Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter UK, Ireland and United States Cold & Snow


Indian Summer To Arrive On Cue + Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter




Much of this week will become dry and settled with a gradual increase in temperatures to deliver an Indian summer for many parts of the country.


Temperatures are likely to touch or exceed 25C in parts of the south towards the end of the week and into next weekend due to more southerly winds (12th September), which is 8C above-average for the time of year. Other parts of the country are also likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s at the very least, even parts as far north as Scotland could see maximum temperatures in the low 20s. 

Unfortunately, some cloud cover could be of issue at times preventing wall to wall sunshine, but it will feel rather warm and pleasant in among the clearer sunnier periods.

However, the more settled conditions will be accompanied by some rather chilly nights to start next week under the clearer skies, and many places will get down to single digits at times during the first half of the week.

Later next weekend and into early next week could bring some sort of breakdown from the west of the country to more unsettled conditions and some developing thunderstorm activity. However, the high pressure that is likely to feature across our shores for the next several days could prevent any unsettled conditions or major fronts pushing in from the Atlantic, and it could very well be that we get an extension of the more settled and warmer weather than some current model indications for another several days before a potential breakdown.

Our 4 month ahead subscribers Autumn forecast also stated the following:

On our present indications the start to the meteorological autumn of 2015 is likely to see some warm temperatures developing for the time of the year within the early stages, in particular, in some parts to the south and east of the country throughout September. However, the warm periods are also likely to have quite a widespread influence at times.

Some changeable periods of more unsettled weather in terms of heavy rain and strong winds will also develop at times throughout September, and this will bring the risk of some potentially thundery downpours when they replace the warmer periods, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country.

The following media article from the 31st August also stated in reference to this:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said after the dire start to September, the weather could yet improve. Early signs show the first part of autumn is shaping up to be warm with a late scorcher not out of the question, he added.

He said: "As we progress throughout the week after some rather cool and showery days it will begin to turn more settled and warmer. "This should see a return to summery weather by the weekend and into the early part of next week for many. "So although it may feel rather autumnal to start the meteorological autumn it will only be short-lived."

Important Note On Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter


Towards the end of last year Exacta Weather forewarned of the serious implications that we were facing from colder than average SST in the Atlantic due to a changing Gulf Stream and low solar activity. Even though these changes never impacted our winter as it should have done, there is an important lag effect within this process that was difficult to define at that particular point, especially with it being something that doesn't occur regular. All of our forecasts/statements also warned about the implications this would have on our 'long term' weather patterns if nothing changed and not just last winter alone.

We really would have needed to see some changes throughout this year to escape the inevitable this time around. However, as expected, this is not the sort of process that reverts back on itself quickly once it occurs, especially when we are in such a period of low solar activity. However, there have been no improvements since we first reported on these changes, if anything the overall situation has worsened... This now means that those who like cold and snowy winters will not be disappointed this year, in particular, in the UK, Ireland and the north/east coast of the United States (see recent North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the below image).



The following article from the Express and Nathan Rao from the 1st January superbly covered this topic in depth, and it also correctly forewarned that the upcoming year would be dogged by cold blasts with a cool/unsettled/stormy summer from several months ahead due to theses changes in solar output and the Gulf Stream.


The 1st January article also stated the following in reference to the Gulf Stream, low solar activity and summer 2015:

The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

An additional media article from the 27th February also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

An additional media article from the 9th April also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”



An additional media article (above) from the 27th May also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:


Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks.”



The Met Office has also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain over the last few months in the below article.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/britain-endures-coldest-summer-in-years-met-office-figures-show-a2926106.html

Yet 3 months earlier they stated the following in one of our articles for a colder than average and unsettled summer:

"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

An additional media article from the 9th April also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect
UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 6th September 2015 – James Madden

Check out our latest offers on forecast subscriptions and why you should subscribe to our services in the links below:

Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms

Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms
To date the 2015 summer has been rather changeable and unsettled with nothing spectacular in terms of prolonged warm weather due to a more southerly driven jet-stream, which allows low pressure and rainfall to dominate proceedings across the UK and Ireland.

Our 8 month ahead summer forecast that was issued before any other meteorological forecast for the summer period of 2015 has correctly identified the following to date:

A largely unsettled June and July with below-average temperatures due to a southerly driven jet-stream from a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and low solar activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation has been largely negative throughout June and July and temperatures in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET) were below-average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Our 8 month 2015 summer forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated all of the following to subscribers in reference to this:

The 2015 summer period (June to August) is likely to endure some much colder and wetter than average conditions as a whole, and in comparison to last year. The June to August, period is therefore, likely to experience a dominating pattern of quite wet weather and untimely summertime storms.

Although 2014 proved to be a warm year for the UK, with every month except August featuring an above-average CET (Central England Temperature), the 2015 summer period is likely to be somewhat different and significantly cooler overall. This is due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how this intrinsically alters our long-term weather patterns and ocean behaviour. This will become quite apparent throughout the early part of 2015, and for what is also likely to be a much colder than average summer period, for which we are likely to experience a strong displacement of the jet-stream southwards throughout the upcoming summer period for some quite prolonged periods.

The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer.

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office and PA Meteogroup:

"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9th April 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th February 2015:

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-winter-last-another-5240729

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1st January 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/549619/2015-weather-forecast-UK-five-months-cold-winter

The major warm spell at the end of June/start of July which brought the hottest July day temperatures on record

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

This doesn't mean consistent colder than average conditions and rain for the upcoming summer period, and some periods of moderation or near normal temperatures can be expected to develop at times. The latter part of June and into the final month of summer is likely to offer some respite from these conditions at times, although we don't expect it to become exceptionally warm or hot for any prolonged periods or for the time of the year within this period.

However, a number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August, that could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with at the very least, before becoming more widespread to other parts of the country later.

Our forecast also indicated a pattern change to a more influential Azores High throughout the latter part of July and into August/September.

This is where those who feel the need to try and pick holes in our forecasts will gladly try and do so as they have nothing else to pick at, and they will also 'incorrectly' say that this pattern change should of happened weeks ago. So lets cover what they don't want you to know or what they will try and brush under the carpet in terms of our latest long range forecast achievements.

Our long range forecast for the summer accurately forecast the more unsettled and cooler theme and the exact causes to date from a more southerly driven jet-stream/negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - as outlined in various media articles and our long-range subscribers reports which we have provided proof links to within this update. It is also important to remember that our initial calculations for this 'developing' pattern change was from 8 months ahead, and with such long range calculations our long range forecasts always state that some standard deviation has to be applied. In essence the forecast has correctly identified a pattern change to a more influential Azores high for the period it stated, but it is taking some time to establish itself firmly so that it becomes beneficial for most and if not all parts of the country. The heat and high pressure is there, and many in the southern half of the country have benefited quite well recently in terms of some quite warm to hot conditions and settled weather, whereas parts further north have still struggled with some suppressed temperatures and further changeable weather despite an improving theme of better and warmer weather days when compared to the rest of the summer to date. However, the timing was there for these changes, in particular, in the southern half of the country, just as they were for June and July in terms of the cooler and more unsettled weather conditions.

So just to be 100% clear – our forecast correctly favoured a largely unsettled and cool summer with a gradual pattern change throughout August and into September.

We also stated in our long range forecast that it may take some time to become more effective to the rest of the UK and Ireland, and at the very latest we could see these conditions taking more of a stronghold during the second half of August and into much of September as the jet stream returns to a more beneficial position for an Azores High to become more influential across our shores, thus allowing for a number of prolonged warm to hot periods of weather for many.
The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.

"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to be cooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August.

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to some major thunderstorms and potential flooding for the first half of August which is now being reflected upon from standard meteorology for later this week + for the exact locations (14th - 15th August):

This will also bring the additional risk of some notable and widespread flood events/vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in parts of south-west/southern England and later to parts of north-east England for in or around the first half of August.

Summary

These cooler summers are also a clear indication of where our future climate and weather patterns are heading in terms of cooler/wetter summers and colder snowier winters, and everything Exacta Weather has ever stood for scientifically since our launch in 2010, and despite the bastion of support for the principles behind global warming.

Our original summer forecast PDF is also available to view by clicking here


Recent scientific articles (2015) such as this will now also become more commonplace in the coming years and decades:

Britain Faces Freezing Winters As Slump In Solar Activity Threatens Little Ice Age

http://rightedition.com/2015/06/24/britain-faces-freezing-winters-as-slump-in-solar-activity-threatens-little-ice-age/

It also stated the following: James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the effects may be felt as soon as this winter.

He also said: “Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. “We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. “On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16.”

UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 11th August 2015 – James Madden

Please note that this update was posted to subscribers at an earlier time


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