Thursday, 27 March 2014

Will Hotter, Drier Summers & Milder Winters Become The Norm In Future?

Will Hotter, Drier Summers & Milder Winters Become The Norm In Future?

There has recently been reports from scientific experts in reference to the hottest summer ever occurring during 2014 on the basis of El Nino weather patterns. Unfortunately, these predictions do not consider how solar activity can influence our weather patterns and other major factors such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in relation to the frequency and strength of El Nino and La Nina episodes. The PDO identifies warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (largest ocean in the world) on a monthly basis, with each cool or warm phase generally lasting for around 20-30 years in duration. We are currently in a cold phase of the PDO, of which La Nina episodes (cooling) will be more prevalent in the coming years and decades. However, El Nino (warming) episodes will still occur, but they will be less infrequent and much shorter in duration.

The Met Office Hadley Centre are now suggesting that we will see an increase in milder winters and that hotter, drier summers will become the norm in the long term in a recent Guardian article dated the 25th March 2014 below:


Hang on a minute!!!

It was only 9 months ago in an emergency meeting that the Met Office Hadley Centre suggested that we should stand by for more wet and cold summers. They also suggested that these changes impacted colder winter temperatures too.

Please see the Independent article dated 18th June 2013 on this below:


So what is really going on?

The answer is quite simple and was immediately transparent to myself upon the release of this so called scientific information and the related articles that have followed on from this.

We are currently only several years in to the current cold phase of the PDO (which generally last 20-30 years) and very recent reports from respected scientists also indicate that the sun's activity is now at its lowest in 100-200 years, which has repercussions on future solar activity levels.



In the early 1900's when solar activity was low, major PDO events did not occur. However, historical data shows us that major PDO events do occur at the start of sunspot cycles of a particular length.

During such periods of low solar activity and cold phases of the Pacific, there will be some natural variation from year to year and some years may show the complete opposite pattern developing. However, the overall theme will still result in a long term and dominant trend of cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters due to the scientific data that I have analysed repeatedly.

It is all quite simple! The alarmists that told us about global warming are now ready to reiterate that they were right all along about it, despite the science not adding up behind their original predictions and the incorrect long-range weather forecasts that have followed on from this.

Surely if this is something that the Met Office Hadley Centre have been working on for a while, then they would not have incorrectly forecast a cool and wet summer for last year (2013), when we experienced the complete opposite. They would also not have forecast a colder and drier than average winter for 2013/14.

Monday, 24 February 2014

Never Too Late For Cold & Snow? - Another Cold & Snowy Spring To Develop? + Why

Never Too Late For Cold & Snow? - Another Cold & Snowy Spring To Develop? + Why

Many of us have so far experienced a relatively snow-free winter throughout 2013/14, in exception for the excellent snow conditions at the Scotland ski resorts, who have experienced snow depths exceeding those of the winter Olympics. They have also recorded more snow throughout this winter, than in the record-breaking winter of 2009/10 to date.


There has also been suggestions of resorts staying open until the summer, as the likes of Glencoe Mountain, Nevis Range and the Cairngorm Mountain have all seen almost non-stop snow since December, despite the lack of much colder weather from a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that just didn't want to go negative throughout this winter.


So is it too late for cold and significant snow to lower levels of the country as we head into March & spring? & Will we see that negative NAO?

Enter the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is characterised by an eastwards projection of observed rainfall over the Indian and Pacific Ocean, which allows us to forecast a future situation based on trends. It is known as an oscillation pattern that explains variations in weather for the tropical regions, and each cycle can last around 30-60 days.

So how does this influence weather in the UK & Ireland?

The MJO and negative NAO played a key role in the record-breaking March and spring period of 2013 – As suggested 5 months in advance to subscribers.

Recent NOAA indications show signs of a strengthening MJO that is about to enter a more active phase (phase 8). Phase 8 of the MJO supports above average heights around Greenland, which should allow for a more negative NAO as we progress throughout March and into the remainder of spring (something that is not being indicated by computer models or standard meteorologists at present).

This scenario would allow for the development of some severe and sustained cold blasts and significant snow (even to lower levels). From mid-March onwards there is the risk for a dominating period of cold and snow to develop for at least 30-60 days, due to a favourable pattern change to a more negative NAO and in consideration of certain stratospheric influences leading up to this period.
PLEASE NOTE - A strengthening and more active phase of the MJO does not reflect in a negative NAO until 14-21 days later (the reason why computer models are still indicating a positive NAO for the foreseeable at present).

It must also be noted that abnormalities in temperatures near Greenland also suggest a continuation of more recent weather types due to a stronger jet-stream. This would also prevent above average heights pushing into Greenland. However, the characteristics and wavelengths of the MJO for this particular phase (phase 8) should eventually allow for a more negative NAO to develop (my estimation for signals of this occurrence is from mid-March onwards).

The start to March and the spring period is also likely to begin on a much drier note than of late in terms of rainfall amounts, with more in the way of developing sunny periods. This will also bring some interludes of near average daytime temperature to places for this period. However, some showers and very windy periods are still likely to develop at times, in particular, in the northern half of the country. Some of these showers may also turn wintry in parts of the north for in or around the 3rd March. Thereafter, is likely to bring progressively colder temperatures and the increased risk of widespread frosts and some notable snow.

So although March may deceive us in thinking that spring has arrived early due to some decent intervals of sunshine and somewhat drier weather than of late to begin with, do not be surprised to see weather models adjusting to this scenario and a more negative NAO as we progress throughout the March period and into the remainder of spring.

I also stated in a January update in re-consideration of the winter 2013/14 forecast and in a review of future forecasts that:

No major amendments were required after a reanalysis of the original 6 month ahead spring 2014 forecast.

Date Published: 24th February 2014 (07:13am) – James Madden

A FREE PDF VERSION OF THIS REPORT IS ALSO AVAILABLE HERE

 

Spring & Summer 2014 - Email Delivery Upon Purchase
 

Spring & Summer 2014 Forecast Information  @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ultra_Long_Range.html

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Thursday, 6 February 2014

Big Snow? + Even Colder Still

Big Snow? + Even Colder Still
The early part of Friday will see some outbreaks of rain turning wintry at times across some parts of central, southern, and eastern England. Some moderate falls of snow are also likely across certain parts of Wales and central England for this period, especially across higher ground. As we progress throughout Friday evening and into Saturday some strong winds will begin to develop from the west, before pushing in across many other parts the country (roughly 1 day out in terms of timing from several days ahead in below forecast, weather timings deviate). Some of these winds are likely to be in excess of 60-70 MPH, in particular, across some northern, western, and southern coastal regions. The unsettled conditions will also be accompanied by some heavy rain, which is likely to contribute towards some additional flooding problems in vulnerable areas. Parts of Scotland and northern England will also see some heavy falls of snow developing across higher ground for this period, with the ever increasing risk for some snow to develop at some lower levels in these parts for this period too. As we progress throughout Saturday evening and into Sunday, the risk of some moderate to heavy periods of snow will extend to parts of Wales, central England, southern Ireland, and parts of the far south/southern England. Some of these may also prevail as wintry showers into the early part of Monday in some of these parts too.
Next Week...
Another unsettled week is in store for next week, as further areas of low pressure bring more strong winds and further periods of precipitation as rain and snow to the UK and Ireland. It will also be feeling even colder than of late throughout next week. However, the even colder weather in place across the country will allow for the potential development of some widespread and potentially heavy snow showers across large parts of the country throughout the late part of Monday and into much of Tuesday, in particular, across parts of Scotland, northern England, Wales, central England, and many parts of Ireland. The heaviest snow is also likely to be concentrated to the western side of the country (from the far north, to the far south for this period). However, this does not mean that this will be solely restricted to these parts either. Many other parts of the country are also likely to see some moderate to potentially heavy falls of snow developing for this period and to much lower levels too.
(Confidence is quite high with this in comparison to any other snow event that has been forecast for this winter to date)
This weather scenario will be due to an extensive area of low pressure and a nicely balanced pattern of colder weather for this part of the forecasting period (Monday evening to Wednesday). The area of low pressure may also persist into Wednesday and bring some further periods of heavy snow in parts to the north and west of the country.
FREE FEBRUARY 4 PAGE PDF REPORT UK & IRELAND - ISSUED TO SUBSCRIBERS 31ST JANUARY

UPDATE ADDED: THURSDAY 6TH FEBRUARY 2014 - JAMES MADDEN (19:30)

Are we likely to experience another cold & snowy spring & will the summer be cold/wet or bring another heatwave in 2014?

(Individual summer 2014 forecast now available)


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Wednesday, 29 January 2014

Here Comes A Major Weather Event (Friday evening into early Saturday) + Snow/Heavy Snow For Many Parts Of The UK & Ireland

Here Comes A Major Weather Event (Friday evening into early Saturday) + Snow/Heavy Snow For Many Parts Of The UK & Ireland
I first posted an early weather warning via Facebook and Twitter on Friday 24th January that:

There was a 'POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS' weather event (SNOW/SNOWSTORMS) as we progress throughout the later part of next week and into next weekend. I also stated that standard meteorology would adjust their forecasts on this over the coming week.

I then stated via Exacta Weather on Saturday 25th January that:

There is also the ever increasing risk for a number of major and widespread snow events as we head towards the end of next week, in particular, in or around Friday. This period could prove to be a potentially dangerous weather event (that standard met will adjust their forecasts on during the coming week), which could bring many parts of the country to a standstill due to heavy snow from the far north to parts of the far south.

So when and where will this snow event happen?

As we progress throughout Friday and into Saturday, low pressure will dominate and bring strong winds and heavy rain across many parts of the country. Throughout Friday day will only see this rain turning to snow across parts of Scotland and northern England at times to begin with, there will also be the additional risk of further flooding in some parts of the south from the rain.

As we progress throughout Friday evening and into the early hours of Saturday morning, there is now an ever increasing risk that rain will to turn to snow across many parts of the UK & Ireland as it pushes in from the west. Snow will initially develop across many parts of Ireland (even to lower levels) and some heavy falls of snow are possible across some parts to the north, west, and south of Ireland throughout this period. The snow risk will then extend to many parts of the UK (even to lower levels) and some heavy falls of snow are possible across many parts of Scotland, northern England, Wales, and some parts as far south as the Midlands may also be at risk throughout this period. Parts of the far south and London regions may escape the heaviest of the snow and continue to see more in the way of a wintry mix in terms of rain, sleet, and snow, but some moderate falls of snow could become plausible in some of these parts during the specified Friday evening to early Saturday period.

Important Note

The emphasis is going to be on the amounts of further rainfall expected in already flood stricken areas throughout Friday day, but this is now also likely to become a major weather event (widespread snow) with the potential for some severe snow storms and potential drifting in parts to the north of the country, that either standard meteorology will try and miss altogether (due to its timing) or they will adjust their forecasts accordingly over the coming days for those who will be travelling in these conditions at the time.

JAMES MADDEN - Exacta Weather

Are we likely to experience another cold & snowy spring & will the summer be cold/wet or bring another heatwave in 2014?
(Individual summer 2014 forecast now available)


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Sunday, 19 January 2014

A Colder Week Ahead + Snow Update + FREE Feb PDF Weather Forecast UK & Ireland

A Colder Week Ahead + Snow Update

A much cooler theme will develop throughout the forthcoming week across many parts of the UK & Ireland. This will allow for the development of widespread frosts and some persistent fog patches. It will also be remaining unsettled and periods of rain and showers will develop from midweek after a somewhat dry start for many, especially in parts to the north of the country. Some of these showers are also likely to turn increasingly wintry in parts of the north throughout this period, in particular, across parts of Scotland from Tuesday onwards. As we head into next weekend and the early part of the following week, further rain and windy conditions will move in across many parts of the country and keep it rather unsettled. There is also the potential for this rain to turn increasingly to snow across many parts of the country, in particular, across parts of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. Some heavy snow is likely to develop across certain parts of Scotland and Northern England for this period, whilst some regions as far south as parts of the South West and South East may also be at risk of seeing some wintry/snow showers developing at times in this period.


Important - Must Read & FREE February 4-page PDF Forecast (Snow & Cold)


UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 19th January 2014 (10:48) - James Madden


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Thursday, 16 January 2014

Why Do Other Forecasters/Weather Companies Have So Much To Say About This Winter? + Proof

Why Do Other Forecasters/Weather Companies Have So Much To Say About This Winter? + Proof

We first of all need to put all this in perspective with all the other forecasters/weather companies and in reference to them having so much to say about my winter 2013/14 forecast. My forecast for this winter has contained unusually low accuracy to date for the UK & Ireland (FACT) and this will be the last posting of this nature in reference to this, all future posts will be strictly weather related. In every profession everything can't be 100% right all of the time, and as I have pointed out before, good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from mistakes and errors (not consistent errors such as others though).

I have also offered a detailed and valid explanation of where my forecast has gone wrong in the PDF link below and what to expect throughout the remainder of this winter and into spring in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) - also includes details of the correctly forecast United States record-breaking winter:


I have also tried to find an explanation or admission for the following and consistently incorrect long-range forecasts from others below, when I have forecast the complete opposite. I can't find a single one...

Firstly, the Met Office also forecast a colder than average December/winter 2013/14 at the end of November @



Netweather forecast temperatures to be close or above average with below average rainfall for the summer of (2012)


We then went on to experience a colder than average June and July + the wettest summer in 100 years


Met Office forecast drier than average conditions for April, May, and June (2012) - Only several days before the start of April


2012 HAD WETTEST APRIL FOR 100 YEARS, MET OFFICE SAYS + WETTEST EVER APRIL TO JUNE



Netweather also forecast a summer heatwave similar to 1976 - Again only a few days before the start of summer (2011)


COLDEST SUMMER IN OVER TWO DECADES, AS THIS SKY NEWS ARTICLE WAS RELEASED BEFORE FINAL (CET) ADJUSTMENTS


Met Office forecast mild winter for 2010/11


COLDEST DECEMBER IN 100 YEARS (2010)



UNFORTUNATELY, THE ABOVE MEDIA LINK IN REFERENCE TO MYSELF AND DECEMBER 2010 HAS NOW EXPIRED BUT I DO HAVE A HARD COPY OF THE NEWSPAPER ARTICLE WHICH I WILL POST LATER TO THE RELEVANT SECTION OF THE ACCURACY PAGE.

Met Office forecast another mild winter for 2009/10


THE BRITISH WINTER WAS THE COLDEST IN OVER 30 YEARS


Met Office forecast an odds on barbecue summer (2009)


In this duration of all the above forecasting errors, I have forecast the complete opposite in advance of these errors and been right in essence with my forecasts (the exact reason why so many certain individuals have quite a lot to say about this winter). I could quite easily reduce my odds of errors by also issuing forecasts a few days before the actual season starts, as with the likes of the above and how they still proved to be consistently incorrect.

I have also accurately forecast the correct weather patterns and any major developments for the last 5 summers from several months in advance (when others suggested otherwise).

The original long-range and 6 month ahead Exacta Weather forecast also correctly forecast the timing of the 2013 summer heatwave (July into August). It also correctly stated that temperatures would exceed 30C in parts of the south + below-average temps for June + flooding events/exact locations.

/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/SUMMER2013.pdf

The Exacta Weather long-range summer forecast issued in Feb 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78kbN-zAlms&list=PL5714219B98CCDB27&index=33

The Exacta Weather spring forecast issued in Feb 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Lxy7AoaB1s&feature=player_embedded

This quote appeared in the Sunday Sun article dated 10th April 2011 in reference to the 2011 summer period

James Madden said “judging by solar activity and the current ocean atmosphere across the globe, the UK could see more rain and a dip in temperatures in June, July and August. He said: "Based on the factors covered, the summer as a whole could unfortunately be colder than average with above average rainfall. "In my opinion, odds of a barbecue summer for this year are slim."


UNFORTUNATELY, THE ABOVE MEDIA LINK HAS ALSO NOW EXPIRED BUT I DO HAVE A HARD COPY OF THE NEWSPAPER ARTICLE WHICH I WILL POST LATER TO THE RELEVANT SECTION OF THE ACCURACY PAGE.

The Exacta Weather winter forecast issued in September 2010


Winter forecast for 2009/10 also stated: “I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold?. “Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK”

Summer forecast for 2009 also stated: “I am therefore going to bravely stick my neck on the line again, and say that the Met Office indications of a boiling hot summer is incorrect”

In addition to all these correct predictions, the record-breaking spring/March of 2013 was also forecast several months in advance of all forecasters who never forecast this and graced us with talk of a mild March/spring (which turned out to be the joint equal coldest in 130 years, coldest spring in 100 years in places)

/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/spring2013forecast.pdf

So as you can see and in exception for this winter to date, my ability to forecast long-range weather events in advance of how standard meteorologists work is somewhat different within this inexact science. If anything I have made a rather good job of the little resources that I have available to predict the weather events that I have to date, especially as I don't issue forecasts a few days before an actual season is due to begin.

Lets think of this in a different way. Manchester United have been the most successful English club in recent years, yet they are now going through a somewhat difficult period at present, and lots of opposite supporters are reveling in joy and making their built-up feelings known. Why? Well this is easy to answer as a Liverpool fan myself.

Answer = Because they have been the most successful in terms of their overall performance for many years and opposite supporters want to see them fail. However, they will keep trying for their loyal supporters and try to build on their previous successes.

The loyalty of all my supporters who have followed me for many years are also my determination to succeed, and all this unwarranted behaviour and trolling/abusive comments (which I do control/moderate on Facebook) also shows me how much I have bothered certain individuals with affiliations to weather related companies. My correct long-range predictions are not going anywhere and will only be added to in the future, when others will forecast the complete opposite again.

A quick note on November and December once again...

72 of the last 100 November periods were 'warmer' than the one we experienced in 2013, it was not the mild November that was forecast by every other forecaster at the start of the month.  Had we of experienced a slightly more sustained cold spell, then we could have been looking at a potentially record-breaking month. The most significant cold and snowy period was also from around the 20th - 25th of the month - as suggested in the 7 month ahead forecast.


December proved to be a fairly inaccurate month overall, in exception for the snow dates, although the overall scale was out on these too. However, the final winter forecast that was released on the 12th September 2013 also stated (before any suggestions from other forecasters):

"However, some periods of moderation and extremely windy conditions are also likely to develop at various stages throughout December, and in comparison to the expectations of the January 2014 forecasting period" (Please read your PDF forecasts)

Accuracy/Archive/Youtube/Blog links for more proof + must read year in review (2013) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

UPDATE ADDED: Friday 17th January 2014 (06:01) - James Madden


UK & Ireland February Forecast Now Available - Will it be cold or mild? @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html


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