Thursday, 28 June 2012

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

After further flash flooding across parts of England and northern England yesterday, the remainder of this week and into next week will also offer no real respite in these unsettled conditions. The brief period of much warmer temperatures turned out to be relatively short-lived, and temperatures will now begin to ease towards more near or below the seasonal average for most. Friday will begin on a generally drier note for most. Outbreaks of rain and blustery showers will also develop and become more widespread throughout the day, especially in some parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also be quite windy and generally cloudy throughout today too. There may be the occasional period of sunshine in between these showers and cloudiness, but the best of any decent sunshine and drier weather will occur in some parts of southern/south-east England.

The weekend will see a bit more of a mixed picture developing. It will also initially remain quite unsettled across parts of Scotland and northern England. There will also be some further showery outbreaks of rain for many throughout Saturday, especially in parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales. Some of these showers are once again likely to turn quite heavy and potentially thundery in places throughout Saturday too. It will also be generally cloudy and quite windy at times throughout the day, making it feel much fresher than of late for most. However, it will be drier throughout some southern and eastern parts on Saturday, and the best of any decent sunshine and warmer temperatures will once again occur in these parts. Sunday may shape up a little better in terms of some developing sunny periods, especially in some parts of southern England and Wales. However, cloudiness and some further showery outbreaks of rain are likely to develop in places. Some of these showers could once again turn quite heavy in places, especially in some parts of the north.

Looking ahead to later next week, and the picture looks set to turn very unsettled again. Another area of low pressure looks set to bring a further period of very wet and windy weather to many parts of the country. Unfortunately, some of this rain is likely to turn very heavy and persistent in places again. This is of particular concern as many parts of the country have recently experienced some very high levels of rainfall, and with the already high river and water levels that we are seeing from this at present, there is a potentially high-risk of some further severe disruption from flash flooding in many parts of the country throughout next week. 

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

As we head into July, we are likely to experience a continuation of very unsettled weather types across many parts of the country. July will also replicate June in many ways, as it will once again be dominated by periods of cool and very wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in normal temperatures in many places for the time of the year. I also expect the Central England Temperature (CET) to come in at below-average for July too.
Now although we have already experienced a number of flooding events in places throughout the start of the meteorological summer so far, I also suggested the most prone time frame for any such major flooding occurrences (based on my own personal methodology, calculations & science).

Key points from my summer 2012 forecast – issued in February 2012
  1. So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole.
  2. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times.
  3. I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer.
  4. My forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.
YouTube Summer Forecast 2012 - (Issued 27th Feb 2012)

Unfortunately, that prone period still concerns me much more than June in regard to a possible string of major flooding occurrences across the country. If we allow for a standard deviation of a week or two from the given dates above and how far back my summer forecast was actually issued, from around mid-July onwards we are likely to be at significant risk of experiencing some very heavy rain deluges and exceptional flooding across the country. This unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some strong winds at times throughout this period too.

Thursday, 14 June 2012

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country. This dominant pattern is also why the country experienced a record-breaking cold and wet summer during last year (as forecast in January 2011), when all three months of summer came in at below-average in terms of temperature. This is in part due to the continued low levels of solar activity and how it also intrinsically alters major factors such as cloud coverage. Weak solar activity is also influential on predominantly negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

There is the potential for a possible shift in this pattern as we progress throughout August and into September, which could result in some warm or very warm periods of weather at times within these months (forecasting confidence is medium range). However, if a pattern shift does not occur throughout the final summer month of August, then we will be facing a summer of similar magnitude to last year in terms of temperature or colder.

This is also why I stated in my original summer forecast in February “I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either.”

Saturday, 2 June 2012

Start of Summer 2012 + The Coldest May in 100 years

Start of Summer 2012

The start of the meteorological summer has seen a marked drop in temperatures and a return to more unsettled weather in comparison to the warm and sunny and weather that we experienced in the later part of May.

(Please see original summer forecast issued in Feb 2012 below/archives & original June forecast issued in May 2012 below/archives)

The Coldest May in 100 years

Firstly, this claim/prediction never came from myself or Exacta Weather. My original May forecast also stated that temperatures were more likely to be near-average or below-average for the May period too. Now even though the warmer weather that we experienced in the latter part of May was much more extensive and prolonged than myself and most other forecasters (who have any shred of honesty towards their readers) had originally anticipated, it could have quite easily of gone the other way too.

Temperatures were almost 2C below-average until the final part of May, hence the reasoning behind my original prediction for near-average or below-average temperatures as a whole for the May period. My original spring forecast also stated the potential for some warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times as we progressed throughout the May period too (issued almost three months ago). Now although the coldest May in 100 years headlines proved to be incorrect for a certain forecaster, I am also not aware of any headlines or long term predictions from the Met Office that appeared to indicate a mini heatwave for the latter part of spring either.

In a nutshell, we are currently in a rather disordered period of time that will bring some difficulties to certain aspects of weather forecasting/computer models, due to the magnetic changes that are occurring within the sun and here on Earth. These factors also have an important bearing on earthquake and volcanic activity as covered in my earlier archived posts and videos. The general theme for the coming years and decades will still largely consist of cooler wetter summers/colder snowier winters for the UK. However, some people will still try to lay false claims in predicting the warmer weather that occurred in May, whereas others such as those with (warmist agendas) will utilise this and any future periods of warmer weather to their full advantage, whilst they still have the ability to do so.