Monday, 31 January 2011

UK Summer and Winter Weather Forecast 2011-12

Duplicate from (Published: 30th January 2011)

Well there has certainly been more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall and rainfall, with well below average temperatures as I originally forecast. I was also able to forecast this with confidence several months in advance, when other highly paid and respected meteorologists was forecasting a mild and dry winter.

November although not officially winter in terms of meteorology, saw widespread heavy snowfall and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK. The average UK temperature also never rose above freezing throughout December. Large icebergs was also a frequent sight in the Irish Sea and Morecambe Bay area towards the latter part of the month, in what turned out to be the coldest December in 100 years. January has been somewhat milder, and the stage the La Niña is at can sometimes influence this much needed and welcomed weather. However, it has certainly not been tropical by any means, more near average. The highlands of Scotland has still been particularly hard hit throughout January as originally forecast, and many other locations have still seen some sort of snowfall. It is also important to remember that winter runs until the 1st March in terms of meteorology, and it may still hold some more surprises for us yet in terms of my original forecast and into spring.

I also clearly stated ample times "the lag effect" of low solar activity and the shift of the gulf stream, in regards to the climate system and weather. Which leads me to my summer and winter outlook for 2011/2012. In regards to how I calculate solar activity and other natural factors, I am able to offer a UK Summer and Winter outlook for 2011-12, with high confidence at such an early stage that I am more than comfortable with. Other meteorologists will say this is impossible, they will however differ to myself in terms of the methods used, and the climate models that they choose to use. As I have stated before, I consider solar variability as the major cause of climate change. I sincerely hope that my early forecasts will stress the importance for the need to incorporate historical sunspot data into long term weather forecasting, and how it corresponds with the ocean.

It is a well known and documented fact that low solar activity is linked with periods of colder temperatures over Europe, which also interestingly includes a rise in wheat prices. Sunspot activity did increase somewhat last year, however in terms of rotation, positioning, and the solar flares produced, I am not convinced that much has changed. Another major cause for concern is the strength of the magnetic fields from these sunspots. Geomagnetic activity is minimal, and the current geomagnetic index is at an all time low. This will result in extra cloud cover and further affect temperatures, with future repurcussions of further prolonged periods of low solar activity, that could see sunspots vanish.

The fact also still remains that we should now be in a solar maximum. So let's take a look at how the sun should look during a solar maximum below. See Fig.1

FIG.1 SOHO/NASA, (2003)

So now let's take a look at the sun below in 2008. See Fig.2

FIG.2 SOHO/NASA, (2008)

Finally let's take a look at the sun below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.3
FIG.3 SOHO/NASA, (2011)

This extended period of low solar activity has now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.
I can also not stress the importance of the gulf stream shift enough than I already have, in terms of the amount of heat that it transfers to the UK. So let's now take a look at some comparable real time satellite data below, in relation to the horizontal current in 2009 and 2010. See Fig.4
FIG.4 NOAA, (2009 & 2010)

Now let's take a look at at the horizontal current data below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.5

FIG.5 NOAA, (2011)

This has also now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.

Summer 2011

Based on the factors I have covered, it would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the lag effect of the gulf stream shift to couple this. However, I also feel that the La Niña will largely influence the UK summer, in terms of how it will affect the jet stream.

This could lead to torrential downpours and severe flooding

So it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year.

Winter 2011-2012

Based on the natural factors that I have covered, it would also be adequate to suggest well below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the dire lag effects of the gulf stream shift couple this, especially if nothing improves soon. The La Niña should also continue to establish itself further as expected, and once again in terms of how it will influence the jet stream. We could therefore see widespread heavy snowfall once again, for the first part of winter at the very least. This would result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and should prove to be the worst of them all.

Widespread heavy snowfall and well below average temperatures that should see records broken.

I will update the outlooks as and when required, in regards to any other natural factors or changes that may need consideration in my forecasts.

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