Sunday, 27 January 2013

A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?



A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

As we begin the new working week, there will be some further falls of heavy snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland. There will also be gale force winds across parts of the north, in particular, in parts of Western Scotland. With this comes the risk of some developing blizzard conditions across higher ground in these parts throughout Monday too.

However, the brief run of milder and more unsettled weather is also likely to bring the risk of some localised flooding from melting snow in some upland and mountainous areas of northern and southern England, in particular, on Tuesday. However, there will also be some further snow at times across higher ground in parts of Scotland throughout Tuesday too.

Wednesday and into Thursday will bring a relatively cool theme (not mild) across parts of the north, in particular, above higher ground in parts of Scotland. Low pressure is also likely to work southwards on Wednesday, bringing weather fronts across these parts. These fronts are also likely to bring some further snow and blizzard conditions at times above higher ground in parts of the north too. However, it is likely to become quite mild in parts of the south, especially in the far south for this part of the forecasting period (Tuesday to Thursday).

As we head into the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, the regime is likely to revert back to a winter feel for many once again. Further frost and fog will begin to develop for many during the evenings (especially in parts of the north), daytime temperatures will also become quite cool for many parts once again too. Friday will see further falls of snow and bring some potential blizzard conditions in parts of Scotland (especially across higher ground). With this comes the risk of some further wintry precipitation and further snow across other parts of the north and possibly to other parts of the country throughout next weekend too, although the exact development in detail is somewhat low in confidence on this scenario at this stage.
A further update will follow on this shortly...

Please also see end of January/February forecast that was added on the 21st January 2013 in the text below:

End of January/February forecast

There is a possibility of a less cold end to January and the early part of February on the assumption of some model suggestions, and this is what other forecasters will be picking up on at present. However, I still expect a return to colder conditions with major snow events throughout February, even if these changes do occur. The sudden and attempted invasions from the Atlantic may bring some less cold conditions at times, but with further periods of sleet and snow too.
However, the influence of the Atlantic is not likely to be strong enough to shift the current cold and wintry conditions that are in place across the UK throughout this forecasting period. Some of these snow events are also likely to be similar in nature to what we have experienced throughout January already, or possibly worse in scale during this forecasting period. It is therefore, likely that we will see a dominating continuation of the cold and wintry conditions up until at least mid-month/the final third of February at the very least. The remainder of the month may then see a potential shift in this pattern (especially across southern parts of the UK). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry weather and cooler conditions throughout the vast majority of the whole month. It must, however, be noted that forecasting confidence has always been very low for this part of the forecasting period, and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country.





January 2010 - Courtesy of NASA


The original winter forecasts for this forecasting period stated:

February 2013 - February may see a potential shift in this pattern after a very cold and exceptionally snowy start to the month. However, confidence is very low for this forecasting period and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country (Issued 23rd June 2012)

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf


February Snowfall - The major snow events are most likely to occur throughout the period from the 1st to the 10th February (especially in some northern and southern parts of the country). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry/snow showers throughout the vast majority of the whole month. (Issued 9th November 2012)

Also includes successful major snow dates for January


http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/FinalSRT1213.pdf


Please also allow for some deviations in exact timing and scale of given scenarios.
Update added: Monday 21st January 2013 16:11

James Madden (UK Long-Range Forecaster)



Added: Sunday 27th January 2013 – 20:29

Sunday, 13 January 2013

Remaining very cold with snow for large parts of the country + persistent freezing fog


Remaining very cold with snow for large parts of the country + persistent freezing fog

As we head into the new working week, the picture is set to remain very cold with periods of snow for large parts of the country. There will also be consistent widespread frosts as temperatures fall widely below freezing for many during the evenings. Some of these frosts will also be severe at times by midweek, with the possibility of temperatures exceeding double negative figures in places. Persistent freezing fog will also be another issue to watch out for, but especially more so in northern and central parts of the country by midweek.

Monday will see sleet and snow affecting many parts of the country. There will also be some rain in amongst this wintry weather in places, but this is less likely in areas to the north and east of the country. Parts of eastern Scotland/England are most at risk for the heaviest of the snow and in particular, parts of north-east England. There could be several centimetres of snow to lower levels in some eastern parts of the country, which will give some lasting accumulations as the snow settles under the colder conditions at present.

Tuesday will bring additional sleet and snow across parts of the east and south-east England. Some of this snow is also likely to give some further moderate to heavy falls of snow in these parts, but especially more so across higher ground. This will once again give some lasting accumulations in these parts. Some further wintry showers are also likely across parts to the north and west at times, with the possibility of some accumulations in these parts too, but especially more so across higher ground.

Wednesday and into Thursday will see some further wintry showers in some northern and eastern parts of the country at times. This will also give some further accumulations of snow in places, but especially more so across higher ground. It will also become generally drier for most at this point, although some areas will be hampered by persistent freezing fog that will struggle to lift throughout the daytime too.

The latter part of the working week and into next weekend will see the risk of some significant snowfall to large parts of the country. The areas most at risk from this span widely from Scotland, northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales, and later to parts of central, and southern England too. Some localised and notable accumulations are possible, and there is also likely to be a continuation of wintry showers in some eastern parts of the country at times too. It will also become very windy at times within this forecasting period (especially in parts to the north, west, and some central areas too), which may produce some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times in these parts.

Next update will follow shortly...

Our detailed snow risk and final winter forecast (60 days ahead) stated:


The major snow events are likely throughout the period of the 10th to the 20th January (especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts) @

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Additional SNOW & COLD Weather updates also available @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Friday, 11 January 2013

Snow & Cold Update

Remainder of January & February 2013 PDF report now only £3 (50% off) + UK/IRE Spring 2013 Forecast (March, April, and May) here 


**NEW** Snow forecast page for winter 2012/13 here

Snow & Cold Update



Although we have seen a very mild start to January, there is a high-risk scenario that the developing cold spell could become much longer in duration than the models have been anticipating. If this becomes the case as expected in my original long-range winter forecast, we could be looking at a scenario similar to the December 2010 cold spell at the very least (which was the coldest December in 100 years). This also fits in with the wording of my original forecast (issued on the 23rd June 2012), which stated “with the possibility of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES, more probable in the January period of the upcoming winter”. These conditions are also likely to persist into the first third of February at the very least if this proves to be the case.

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf (Original Winter Forecast 12/13 - Issued 23rd June 2012)


We also forecast the coldest December in 100 years before any suggestions from elsewhere (August/September 2010) and featured on BBC One TV for our prediction.
Another interesting article below on our coldest December in 100 years prediction


But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010”

There will also be plenty of widespread and major snow events within this period, but it will also become relatively dry for this forecasting period too (next few weeks and into early February). However, the snowfall (some very heavy in places) is likely to result in lying snow on the ground and lasting accumulations for quite some time under these conditions.

Next week is likely to remain very cold across the country with the development of some severe and widespread frosts throughout the whole week. In terms of snowfall, it is quite probable that next week will bring snowfall to large parts of the country, with some decent accumulations in places, but especially more so in northern and eastern parts to begin with. There is also likely to be some further notable falls of snow and accumulations in parts of central and southern England at times throughout next week too. It will also become exceptionally foggy at times (especially in parts of the Midlands and the south). The freezing fog is also likely to become quite dense and potentially dangerous in these parts, as it struggles to lift and becomes rather persistent throughout the day too.

Our detailed snow risk and final winter forecast (60 days ahead) stated:

The major snow events are likely throughout the period of the 10th to the 20th January (especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts) @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
Next update will follow shortly...
Please also see our snow risk forecast page below:
Update added: 11th January 2013 (11:51am)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

Changes on the way with snow and cold, as we return to winter


Changes on the way with snow and cold, as we return to winter

As we approach the middle part of the new working week, the picture is set to turn much cooler than of late across the country. This will lead to the development of some widespread frosts and icy patches in places from Wednesday onwards. The cooler temperatures will also be accompanied by some rather foggy conditions at times during the evenings too, but especially more so across some northern and central areas of the country. The fog may also struggle to lift and become quite persistent at times in these parts throughout the day and into next weekend too.

As we approach the end of the working week and head into next weekend, the risk of wintry precipitation and snow showers will increase significantly. Friday will see the development of these first wintry showers across some northern and eastern parts of the country, but especially more so across higher ground to begin with. The weekend will then see a continuation of the cold conditions and widespread frosts, which will once again be accompanied by some rather foggy conditions (some freezing fog in places). This will also bring a continued risk of snow, but especially more so across parts of the north, east, and south-east of the country. Some of these snow showers may also push into other parts of the country throughout next weekend too (especially throughout Saturday evening and into Sunday).

Please also feel free to check out the short range forecast for your area, which is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of weather model suggestions

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

The Spring 2013 (March, April, May) is also now available to subscribers in the link below
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html