A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

As we begin the new working week, there will be some further falls of heavy snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland. There will also be gale force winds across parts of the north, in particular, in parts of Western Scotland. With this comes the risk of some developing blizzard conditions across higher ground in these parts throughout Monday too.

However, the brief run of milder and more unsettled weather is also likely to bring the risk of some localised flooding from melting snow in some upland and mountainous areas of northern and southern England, in particular, on Tuesday. However, there will also be some further snow at times across higher ground in parts of Scotland throughout Tuesday too.

Wednesday and into Thursday will bring a relatively cool theme (not mild) across parts of the north, in particular, above higher ground in parts of Scotland. Low pressure is also likely to work southwards on Wednesday, bringing weather fronts across these parts. These fronts are also likely to bring some further snow and blizzard conditions at times above higher ground in parts of the north too. However, it is likely to become quite mild in parts of the south, especially in the far south for this part of the forecasting period (Tuesday to Thursday).

As we head into the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, the regime is likely to revert back to a winter feel for many once again. Further frost and fog will begin to develop for many during the evenings (especially in parts of the north), daytime temperatures will also become quite cool for many parts once again too. Friday will see further falls of snow and bring some potential blizzard conditions in parts of Scotland (especially across higher ground). With this comes the risk of some further wintry precipitation and further snow across other parts of the north and possibly to other parts of the country throughout next weekend too, although the exact development in detail is somewhat low in confidence on this scenario at this stage.

A further update will follow on this shortly...

Please also see end of January/February forecast that was added on the 21st January 2013 in the text below:

End of January/February forecast

There is a possibility of a less cold end to January and the early part of February on the assumption of some model suggestions, and this is what other forecasters will be picking up on at present. However, I still expect a return to colder conditions with major snow events throughout February, even if these changes do occur. The sudden and attempted invasions from the Atlantic may bring some less cold conditions at times, but with further periods of sleet and snow too.

However, the influence of the Atlantic is not likely to be strong enough to shift the current cold and wintry conditions that are in place across the UK throughout this forecasting period. Some of these snow events are also likely to be similar in nature to what we have experienced throughout January already, or possibly worse in scale during this forecasting period. It is therefore, likely that we will see a dominating continuation of the cold and wintry conditions up until at least mid-month/the final third of February at the very least. The remainder of the month may then see a potential shift in this pattern (especially across southern parts of the UK). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry weather and cooler conditions throughout the vast majority of the whole month. It must, however, be noted that forecasting confidence has always been very low for this part of the forecasting period, and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country.

January 2010 - Courtesy of NASA

The original winter forecasts for this forecasting period stated:

February 2013 - February may see a potential shift in this pattern after a very cold and exceptionally snowy start to the month. However, confidence is very low for this forecasting period and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country (Issued 23rd June 2012)

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

February Snowfall - The major snow events are most likely to occur throughout the period from the 1st to the 10th February (especially in some northern and southern parts of the country). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry/snow showers throughout the vast majority of the whole month. (Issued 9th November 2012)

Also includes successful major snow dates for January

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/FinalSRT1213.pdf

Please also allow for some deviations in exact timing and scale of given scenarios.

Update added: Monday 21^st January 2013 16:11

James Madden (UK Long-Range Forecaster)

Added: Sunday 27^th January 2013 – 20:29