Sunday, 15 January 2012

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update
15th January 2012

I stated three weeks ago that January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.”

I also stated over two weeks ago that “This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards.”

So we are now at mid-month point and it has recently turned much colder with widespread frosts across many parts of the UK over the last few nights. As we progress through Tuesday and into Wednesday day, things are set to turn slightly milder, with some wet and windy weather across many parts of the UK during Wednesday. However as we progress through Wednesday night and into Thursday, some much colder air will push its way back in across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England.

This colder air will bring wintry showers across these parts during Thursday and into Friday. Some of these showers will fall as snow and accumulate in places, especially across higher ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland. I am currently expecting this pattern of colder temperatures, to become the more dominant feature over the coming weeks across most parts of the UK. I am also expecting this colder weather to be accompanied by frequent wintry showers across northern parts of the UK, with some moderate to heavy falls of snow possible at times in these parts too.

I also stated in my last update and since early September 2011 that “Potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features, are still likely to be a frequent feature at times throughout this winter. However the low pressure systems will offer more in the potential of snowfall than of recently, which could also include areas further south too.”

I also stated over two weeks ago and 48 hours in advance that “Tuesday 3rd January 2012 will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK.”

Unfortunately two people died and many was injured as strong winds and rain battered many parts of the UK.

The professional forecasters and their £30 million supercomputer also failed to issue a relevant weather warning about the impending havoc until afterwards. Met Office officials failed to upgrade from a 'be prepared warning', until 8:15am, when it was upgraded to 'red', which the Daily Mail and Guardian articles above fail to mention.

A Met Office representative then went on to say

By Tuesday morning we updated the status to red to the areas most at risk when we had the information from overnight.” Met Office Representative

Forecast is grim for the Met Office, but are they at fault for missing Big Gail? (See Scotsman link below)

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published P: 15th
 January 2012 (23:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.