Tuesday, 14 December 2010

UK & Europe Severe Weather Warning - Heavy snow & below average temperatures

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 13th December 2010)

I have had a stream of questions, in regards to solar activity and my forecast on the widespread heavy snowfall. In Layman's terms, the position and strength of the jet streams help meteorologists to predict future weather. Climate factors such as La Nina can also hugely influence the jet streams. In terms of the UK and Europe, the general trend is more precipitation due to a stronger jet stream in the North Atlantic. As I have previously stated, this extra precipitation during below average temperatures from low solar activity and the gulf stream shift, will result in widespread heavy snowfall. Especially with a La Nina of this magnitude, that has the potential to cause a sharp decline in global temperatures and may well last through until 2012.

I am also well aware that sunspot activity has increased this year, and I will consider this in my future forecasts. I will however also be considering the energy within these sunspots and a number of other important factors, that do not appear very convincing at present. It is also vital that we understand the lag effect within our climate system on earth, from the low solar activity in 2008 and 2009.

So far we have had at least seven deaths in the UK, and at least sixty across Europe, all due to the recent cold weather we have experienced in what was technically autumn. Hence my past and present warnings! We have also seen the earliest widespread UK snowfall in decades, and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK during November.

So there is good news and bad news in all of this. The good news is that a white Christmas is a high possibility across many parts of the UK. The bad news is that my forecast remains exactly the same as below, in terms of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall. Awareness amongst the vulnerable is still therefore key, especially as we are about to enter round two of the severe winter I forecast earlier this year.

May I take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

However please take extra care with this next bout of severe weather, as my gut feeling is telling me that we could be in this for a long haul with very few mild spells, due to the natural factors I have considered in my forecast.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Sunday, 28 November 2010

Exactaweather.com - Winter 2010/11 Update

My apologies regarding the small delay everyone, but I have been rather busy of late. I am now working with exactaweather.com as one of there UK long range forecasters. Don't worry everyone I am not getting paid a penny, so I will not be changing any of my opinions.

Exacta Weather is a non profit weather organisation consisting of meteorologists from around the world, who share data and research on a voluntary basis like myself. The forecasters and planned forecasters simply have a passion for weather with a background history in the subject, and proven track records in accurate weather forecasting.

I feel this is a huge step in the right direction for me at the present time, especially as I have been largely ignored, even though I have been reporting this winter since very early this year in my blog and research papers.  I will still publish to my blog for nostalgic purposes, my main efforts and detailed forecasts will however now be with exacta weather.

As for this winter guys, the gulf stream has not improved and we are still in a minimum solar cycle. Both of these factors will have dire effects on the UK in terms of temperature reductions (solar cycle - global effects). The La Nina continues to ever strengthen and is capable of further temperature reductions (globally). This will also bring more precipitation to the UK in the form of widespread and heavy snowfalls. It is going to be as bad as I have originally forecast with very few and if any mild spells, now let's look at the accuracy of this forecast come March/April 2011.

Feel free to view my exactaweather.com UK long range forecast, or contact me through them.




J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

Monday, 15 November 2010

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011 - November Update

Thank you for all your comments everyone and your requests for an update.  As it stands not much has changed in regards to my winter forecast, I believe the coming weeks and months will truly begin to illustrate what I have been saying.

1. Gulf Stream

It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1).  It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream.  As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers.  This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.

Fig 1 (NOAA, 2010)

Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)

2. La Nina

The current La Nina continues to strengthen and is looking more than capable of causing a sharp decline in global temperatures.  It is also influential to the UK in terms of changes in global weather patterns as I have previously stated.  The UK can therefore expect more precipitation than usual over the coming months, which I suggest we may already be seeing at present and as suggested in my previous blog post dated 21st September 2010.  Now couple this with freezing temperatures and the increased cloud cover from low solar activity and it becomes highly plausible that heavy snowfall will also influence this winter.

3. Solar Activity

The FACT still remains that we are still in a minimum when we should actually be in a maximum.  Yes sunspot activity has increased this year, but it is important to remember that the sun was blank for over 70% of last year and this will effect this coming winter.  This will also have future effects on further prolonged periods of low solar activity.  Now couple this low solar activity with the regional effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere.  These factors will result in an increased blocking out of sunlight from our already weak sun, which will carry a combined effect in terms of temperature reductions.

I am therefore still currently forecasting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!  The winter of 2011/2012 is still the height of my concerns and could prove even worse than the one we are about to experience right now, due to the lag effect that comes with a number of these processes.

Unfortunately I do feel like I am repeating myself, but as stated nothing much has changed in regards to my winter forecast.  It would be fair to state that the situation has actually worsened in terms of the strengthening La Nina and the unimproved behaviour of the gulf stream.  I therefore suggest it is time to wrap up and make those last minute preparations before this winter well and truly grips us!

In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months.  I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide http://www.worldsnowboardguide.com/news/story/20100930winterprediction.cfm

I must say a huge thank you to editor Steve Dowle from WSG Media for making this possible.  The latest edition of the World Snowboard Guide is also available to purchase online from their website above or at any respectable high street book retailer.

Tuesday, 28 September 2010

Fox News 12 in Oregon use my info including on air TV mention

First of all I owe a huge thank you to Garron Socum from Washington Square in the USA for making this possible. It was his hard work that made this breakthrough possible by reposting my research and work to date, which also included my winter forecast video which appeared on the Fox 12 News website in Oregon, USA.

TV and Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen used the information from my research and actually mentioned it LIVE on air during their TV weather segment on WED 22nd Sept 2010, he also referred to my theory that we may be heading for a Dalton/Maunder Minimum on his website afterwards, of which he stated "both of these are associated with much cooler than normal global weather, but I didn't factor this into my winter outlook either".

I am overjoyed that I have made the news at last, it is however ashame that it had to come from the other side of the world as no UK media source will take me seriously.  Still publicity is publicity and even if it only raises some small awareness, I am still very happy to have made the news. Once again I can't thank you enough Garron for making this possible.

J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

Tuesday, 21 September 2010

UK Winter Forecast 2010/2011 Update

I have had a stream of questions in relation to the amount of snowfall that we are likely to receive in the UK this coming winter.  As previously stated freezing temperatures will be the main concern, however heavy snowfall is also plausible as another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity. We must also consider the establishing La Nina as this is generally influential to the UK in terms of the change in global weather patterns, locations that tend to be wet will become wetter. We currently experience an ample amount of wet weather in the UK, so it would be adequate to expect even more precipitation.  More precipitation during freezing temperatures with the increased cloud cover from low sunspot activity = HEAVY SNOWFALL!

Sunday, 19 September 2010

IMPORTANT Q & A - UK Severe Winter Weather Warning 2010-2011/Winters

It really concerns me that I have presented so many FACTS still to be criticised and abused by other weather organisations who can not get their own forecasts correct! We need to prepare for a winter similar to the last at the very least or much much worse as I expect from my research/study results that have a 100% success rate so far.

1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).

2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter.  It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!

FIG.1 (NOAA, 20th Sept 2010)

These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.

Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.

La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.

So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?

I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out.  I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?

Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast.  Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on.  Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario.  There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes.  The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter.  Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.

Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS!  I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE!  I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.

What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned.  As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.

UK Weather Geek

Thursday, 16 September 2010

UK Winter Forecast 2010/11 Update

Well in answer to all the questions regarding Joe Bastardi's UK winter forecast, yes he is well respected and that is his opinion and you also have mine, we will see who is right but at this present moment in time I see it as impossible that we will have a mild winter. The low sunspot activity, the behaviour of the gulf stream, and the La Nina should override any other factors, my forecast does therefore not change for a severe winter that will at the very least be similar to last (and that was bad enough) or much worse, with a good chance of heavy snowfall!

Hi WeatherGeek. With the release of Joe Bastadi's UK forecast does this knock your confidence slightly? Joe seems to be a reliable source when it comes to long term forecasts..... I personally agree with you in regards to it being a severe winter ahead however there does seem to be a pretty even divide on the net over whether it will be mild or severe....

 I have been reading all of these posts with great interest over the past few days. All of Weathergeek's theories sound very plausible and likely, but then there are major forecast stations and sites saying that it is going to be milder than last year - it really is hard to know what to believe - but I suppose it does no harm to plan for the worst. I would just love loads of snow, I am too young (29 lol) to remember any major snow in the past, being from N. Ireland, so it would be great to see loads of it!!!

Joe Bastardi's winter blog released:....... Hi new guy here just saw Joe's blog Richardc1983 its just a rough out look , but truth be told he has no idea whats going to happen. My reason for this statement is that you can read on his blog that he's done no research on the weather patern for the u.k etc and he's just speculating , so until he does a full report and some research you just have to wait and see. I think weathergeek will be spot on this year in regards to winter 2010/2011 , for those who like a white x-mas like myself I can't see it dumping it down in the south or the southeast but I hope I'm wrong . I would think the northern part will stand a better chance then us down here in the south , but let's hope I'm wrong theres nothing like a white covering of snow all over the place.

Joe Bastardi's winter blog released: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. "
How pants is that!!!

Wednesday, 8 September 2010

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011

Now this is very interesting!

I actually have received a number of comments through my blog post and youtube video over the past few days that was very similar to the posting by KATENG.  I had to delete the first two comments due to the swear words and abuse that they contained towards my work, as my work is also open to all ages.  I mean these comments was quite nasty and personal, I even felt the need to comment back and say that I was not saying I was right about everything, the purpose of this was purely me being modest and it was meant in the context of me not being sure about what we are heading for in terms of cooling.  ie whether or not we are heading for little ice age/ice age conditions or just a general cooling trend.

Here is the first comment:

You are "not saying you are right about everthing" and yet you are so sure you are right that you have instructed every newspaper and the Met Office to issue severe weather warnings for a period five months ahead? That doesn't add up.

There was no personal attack in my comment. And I am nothing to do with "the global warming boom", whatever that might be. I am, however, a professional meteorologist who has to deal with fallout arising from the worries of clients who read the certainties in forecasts such as yours.

You are of course entitles to an opinion but to dress it up as thorough science is misleading.

I shall re-post my objections in a "cleaned up" version, and perhaps you could address the points I raise - THAT'S science.

Do you think that this professional meteorologist having to deal with fallout arising from worried clients could possibly be some weather organisation or global warming alarmist? Do you think they are possibly annoyed with me for contacting every UK newspaper with my prediction, on the basis of my previously correct seasonal forecasts. I am guessing a lot of people must have been in touch with this specific organisation or person recently in regards to my work, maybe this is because there is some validity in what I am saying. Why else would people be making a fuss about what I say for me to cause an arising fallout amongst worried clients?

Here is the second comment:

There is a lot wrong with your assertions.

1. You are fatally confusing local weather with global climate.

2. Sunspot activity is currently INCREASING.

3. We just experienced the second warmest year globally on record (2009) and the warmest January to July period globally on record (2010) at a time of sunspot minimum.

4. There was nowhere near enough debris from Eyjafjallajökull to affect northern hemispheric temperatures. Moreover, it lacked significant ejections of sulfur dioxide which is the aerosol that causes most of the cooling after large eruptions.
5. The thermosphere is behaving in an interesting fashion at the moment. But take me through the thought process that makes you link a shrinking thermosphere to temperatures in the *troposphere*.
6. How do you think the thermosphere will hold onto volcanic ash and cut solar radiation when what little volcanic debris there is from the Icelandic volcano will not even reach that height?

7. La Nina does NOT *always* immediately follow El Nino. In *this instance* it is likely to.

8. You have made no provision for forecasting the state of the AO/NAO nor do you make any mention of the PDO, AMO or any of the other likely drivers.

9. Here's what might happen in the UK/parts of Europe - first half of the winter will be colder than average, second half will be near normal or even a little milder than average, and not "worse than last year". It's as good a guess as yours.

The purpose of me showing you the above comment is so you can note the similarities in the original daily mail posting from KATENG below, which I am now going to address with hard facts that you can also research for yourself.
First of all, I loved the way that they tried to make me to look instantly stupid by commenting on the thames freezing.  My prediction however is that the UK will experience a winter similar to the last or much worse as I expect due to the cold factors in play, the following winter of 2011/12 is also a height of concern.  The thames freezing over is not my predicition I simply stated this as a possibility.  I have mentioned this in my posts due to the fact that when we was last in little ice age conditions, the thames actually did freeze over due to low solar activity, volcanic activity, and a slowdown of the ocean conveyor.  These are all factors that I have mentioned to you throughout the last few years, you can even check this for yourself below, don't worry wikipedia is not a weak reference in regards to what caused the little ice age as this is common knowledge.

1.  I am sure that I am not fatally confusing local weather with global climate, maybe it is this sort of thinking that led to a mild winter forecast for the UK last year when I predicted a severe winter.  I am predicting local weather not global climate, although I have suggested global cooling due to low solar activity.

2.  In 2006 NASA made a prediction for the next sunspot maximum to be between 150 and 200 around the year 2011 (30-50% stronger than cycle 23), followed by a weak maximum at around 2022.  The prediction did not come true as highlighted in my 2009 essay @ https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1YahKtCYLkiGef6acK-c1SFFU1s9dyvisk4uAgOs9PSk&pli=1
The sunspot cycle in 2010 is still at its minimum, where it should have been near its maximum, showing the suns very unusual low activity, this also has future effects on low solar activity.  You really do need to check out the recent new scientist article below  http://www.sott.net/articles/show/210503-What-s-wrong-with-the-sun-

3.   Well it certainly did not feel warm to me? Plus this warming data is from the NOAA as highlighted in my blog post on the 21st July 2010.  This data can not be trusted as 100% reliable as outlined by respected American physicist, Dr Charles R. Anderson.

4.  Well there must of been a lot of debris from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano as all the airports was shut down all over Europe for weeks.  Yes the amount of sulfur dioxide does play a role and ash generally does fall back to earth.  I am however approaching the word generally with caution, as the point here and another fact is that some ash will have not fallen back to earth, sulfur gases will also still be present in the stratosphere for at least another year or so yet, it is this effect and also fact that this will block out extra sunlight.

5.  The thermosphere is behaving in a very interesting fashion, I mentioned this as it clearly appears to be cooling in correlation with the low sunspot activity as I clearly stated.  I did mention that any debris would stay in the atmosphere longer due to the shrinkage and this was in terms of space debris in the upper atmosphere, the space debris will reflect back some sunlight however miniscule it used to be thought of before the shrinkage.  The fact remains that the upper atmosphere does appear to be shrinking and scientists are confused by this.  My hypothesis is that this extra space debris will reflect even further sunlight away than the miniscule amount it usually would, common sense really when you think about it.  Now couple this with the new volcanic debris in the atmosphere from recent eruptions including Eyjafjallajökull and you will start to understand what I am trying to say.

6.  I feel it is irrelevant on this occasion if the la nina always follows the el nino as I stated.  In general it actually does but there are times when it may not.  I feel this is rather nit picky to be honest, the real problem has been avoided here with the monster la nina that we are about to experience as I have previously outlined.

7.  I am not confusing local weather with global climate again am I?  as I have previously suggested earlier maybe it is this kind of thinking and computer models that has produced stacks of incorrect seasonal forecasts.

I also found it very interesting that there was no mention of the gulf stream in all of this, especially as this is one of the most talked about factors on my posts.  The effects from the gulf stream on the UK from slight anomalies can be bad enough on its own without even considering any of the other factors that I have mentioned.  It is also interesting they predict a colder than average winter for for the first half of winter, so why are you having a go at my work again?

So there is not actually a lot wrong with my assertions at all, none of this can actually be disproved.

As for you KATENG you are obviously not going to let me get my point across and raise awareness, I actually feel like you have invaded my life over the past few days with your abusive comments towards the work on my blog, the youtube video which you branded pathetic, and now your on here.  I also love the way that the last line of the KATENG post mentioned the frozen thames again, it would appear that the person responsible here used an excellent credibility technique to make me look uncredible.  Notice how it was mentioned at the start and the end of the post, this was done deliberately so it stuck in your head, the frozen thames really was a very minor part of all the information I have ever provided.  It is also interesting that you chose to highlight on some grammatical and type errors within my work, and as for the paris hilton comments about my video, is that really the best you can do?  You appear to not be in approval of my work but surely do you need to stoop this low?  If it was looking like we was heading for warming or a mild winter, do you not think that I would be reporting this instead?

On a more serious note guys, I think I am going to struggle to give you any more information than you already have, as I feel I may have annoyed a lot of important people with my predictions.  Did you know that the met office is run by the ministry of defence, I don't really want to be getting their tails up to be honest. I was simply trying to raise some awareness based on my theories and past predictions, it is really not worth the abuse and hassle just for me and my so called alarmism, I also have a young family to consider at the minute.

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens and who is right, however KATENG I feel you seriously underestimated me.

Prepare for the severe winters to come guys and good luck.

Thursday, 2 September 2010

UK Winter Forecast Update 2010/11

I have been overwhelmed with the recent activity and interest that my work has been receiving, there are just a few facts that I need to clear up so everyone is fully aware of the current situation as a whole.

I am currently prediciting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!

1. The Gulf Stream

The gulf stream has shown signs of waining in recent years which can alter climate in the UK and Northern Europe, however this summer has shown an unusual amount of anomalies as highlighted in my previous posts.  The data screen below is part of an update that still shows a clear breakage in the gulf loop, the main engine that drives the gulf stream.

The forecast information for the next seven days appears to show an eddy that attempts to reconnect with the gulf stream but fails miserably before disintegrating, maybe because the current is not strong enough? It is important to remember that this is only a forecast, so I will keep you updated when I know more with accurate results, appears very strange to me though.

It is however also very easy to identify the lack of current flowing towards the UK in the above data screen.  The gulf stream is often referred to as the UK central heating system, any slight anomalies can often lead to cooling and result in our temperatures being similar to Newfoundland who are on the same latitude as us but without the advantage of the gulf stream.

The current activity of the gulf stream therefore suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere & the UK

2.  The sun has and always will control the climate and weather.  The current lack of sunspots even with todays technology remain at very low levels, in fact they place us right back in the 1700s when we was in the midst of the little ice age.  Low sunspot activity correlates very well with the cooling of the planet and is also influential on ocean circulation some 5 to 25 years later.

The current solar activity of the sun therefore suggests = Global cooling

3.  The shrinking of the upper atmosphere or better known as the thermosphere ("heat sphere") results in the rapid cooling of our planet, as it decreases in correlation with low sunspot activity.  The fact that this is called the "heat sphere" says it all really.  The current condition will allow space and volcanic debris to stay in the atmosphere for longer periods and block out the sun even further.

The current state of the thermosphere suggests = Global cooling

4.  The icelandic volcano debris in the atmosphere and the prolonged effect from the thermosphere.  It is a well known fact that volcanes can largely influence the climate on earth in terms of cooling, it is also worth noting that mount sinabung also erupted for the first time in four hundred years earlier this week in Indonesia.

The current volcanic activity in regards to the icelandic volcano suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and the UK.

5.  The la nina always follows directly after the el nino that we have just currently experienced, which explains our slightly better than average summer earlier on in the year.  The la nina delivers ocean cooling that cools large masses of water which include the north atlantic, the immediate signs are that this is going to be huge with major effects over the next several months at the very least, this further suggests a cooling of the northern hemisphere and the UK.  The huge sea surface temperature declines below in comparison to 2009 and 2010 are a huge cause for concern.

Frascati National Laboratories, NOAA and Rutgers University. (Frascati Labs), July 29, 2010.

So there is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter and next due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically effect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12. 

Another area with a lot of interest is my view on the heavy snowfall, low sunspot activity often results in more cloud cover, this further cloud cover can block out the sunlight that we need and result in heavy snowfalls and further cooling, this is also connected to the thermosphere as mentioned in number 3 above due to the amount of radiation it is receiving from an already quiet sun.  Another influence of heavy snowfall for the UK is the position of the jet streams and based on last year and this year, this could also influence heavy snow.

My theory has and always will be based on the activity of the sun and how it correlates with many other factors as mentioned including ocean circualtion.  I simply take in to account what is going on around us and how it may effect our near and future climate, I then use this to correlate the likely climatic outcome which has proved successful so far on four separate occasions with the UK met office and the Nasa science behind the sunspot activity in 2008.  I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead that could even replica little ice age conditions or worse.  The following wikipedia article on the Maunder Minimum states "a connection between low sunspot activity and the little ice age, though it is believed that there was another factor that amplified its effects on Northern Europe and the UK", I suggest that the other factors are what I am mentioning right now in regards to the cold factors, we could well be heading for a new maunder minimum or little/full blown ice age.  Only time will tell but the immediate signs are not very comforting and people need to be aware as this is now a much bigger threat than any global warming!

I have informed the UK Met Office that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen. Remember I told you about this in September when we experience another severe winter this year. Why could the met office not?

Below are the emails I have sent and received:

Dear Met Office,

I thought that this might help you to possibly reinstate your seasonal forecasts, you really should read this from bottom to top in date order.


I do hope you enjoy my work and I am not saying I am correct about everything, although I do feel very strongly in regards to sunspots and its effects on the ocean circulation/global cooling. You will notice from the date stamps that I have proven on a consecutive number of times that yourself and Nasa scientist David Hathaway was wrong. I am sorry if that appears as me being rude, I promise you I am not, I am just trying to be a good scientist.

Kind Regards

J Madden


Dear Mr Madden

Thank you for your feedback and link which will be for our Hadley Centre to read and comment upon. I know they are always particularly busy and it is a fine balancing act that we have to be careful not to ask our scientists to step away from their core work too often to deal with enquiries or read drafts of papers written by the general public.

Having said that, we did make a press release about why we are no longer issuing seasonal forecasts and this can be found at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100305b.html . It is unlikely therefore, at this time, that we will re-instate them for public consumption.

Thank you for getting in touch.


date26 August 2010 15:25

subjectRe: re: Seasonal Forecasting - URGENT

Hi Sarah,

Thanks for your speedy response, I would appreciate it if someone does get the time to read it and be ever so greatful. Maybe if they take these factors in to consideration and find they have any value at all, they could actually issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is coming, I mean surely they have a right to know, you could save lives due to awareness and you can make this possible. As I see it at present the UK is in for a very severe winter this year and I feel people should be warned. There are four or five major factors in play that will influence a severe winter for the UK

1. Current sunspot activity

2. La nina

3. Icelandic Volcano

4. The shrinking of the earths upper atmosphere

5. The gulf stream if there is no major improvement

Best Wishes


I have also informed the UK tabloids from the exhaustive list below that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen with not one single response so far.

The observer
The evening standard
Morning Star
The people
The guardian
The independent
Financial times
Daily star
News of the world
Daily mail
Daily mirror
The sun

Below is a copy of the email I have sent:

Dear (tabloid name),

I am writing this in hope that you will seriously review my work and scientific based theories, for the consideration of publication within your newspaper.

I am a studying geographer with a particular interest in climatic change and rapid climate change, especially in regards to current solar activity and oceanic changes such as the gulf stream. I have in the past correctly criticised the science of NASA scientist David Hathaway, whilst also outsmarting the UK met office with their seasonal forecasts for several successions, which they have now decided to scrap altogether.

I also happen to have some very urgent news in regards to the severity of this coming winter for the UK and Northern Europe.

Below are links that reveal my actual story and research to date, which is available in the form of blogs due to the time and date stamps that they carry with them. It would be much appreciated if you could read all of them in date order by scrolling from the bottom of the blog upwards, without discarding it straight away due to the title, this really could pose a grave threat to the future climate of the UK and Northern Europe, possibly starting this winter.

Having gone previously against the met office and David Hathaway to prove them wrong, I feel a matter of urgency in making people aware of what could well be around the corner in terms of my scientific theories.

I will look forward to your response

Kind Regards


I also now have a twitter page that I can be followed on @ http://twitter.com/ukweathergeek

I must however thank a certain person called Richard Clarke from Leeds for his influence on my decision to finally get around to doing this and start tweeting, so thanks Richard lets hope it raises some vital awareness!

Thursday, 26 August 2010

Gulf Stream Update

I would like to state that the gulf stream has improved slightly over recent days, however I use the word improved very cautiously.   There is still a clear breakage in the loop current and a lot of factors including sea temperature suggest that the UK and Northern Europe are in for a dire winter as previously outlined in my previous posts to date.  After a lengthy discussion this morning with another colleague, I feel it is also important to mention the Milankovitch Cycle and where we are today with it, which appears to correlate very well with ice ages/cooling.


Saturday, 14 August 2010

Gulf Stream situation has got worse!

Sorry guys, a lot of people have tried to debunk the whole gulf stream situation over the past few weeks, unfortunately the situation has actually worsened.  Scientists did not appear concerned as there was still apparently some strength in the gulf stream current.  This is denoted by the red colours in the previous data screens, however todays screen shot below shows a different story altogether.

Much more disturbing than the last data shots, as you can see the gulf stream has established a route within the gulf of mexico as I suggested in my last post, the red colours denote the sea surface velocity, ie the strength of the current seems to be in one position that no longer feeds towards the UK or Northern Europe.

Couple this with other current events such as the unusual behaviour of the sun and it's minimal sunspot activity, which I also reported in my last post as well as the situation with the current la nina (ocean cooling), you can actually find that all the cold cards for three major factors on our climate are in play for this coming Winter! like I stated the effects of the gulf stream will be bad enough if nothing changes!!! and it has worsened, my seasonal forecast for winter 2010/2011 would therefore have to change to SEVERE SEVERE COLD for the UK and Northern Europe which could resemble little ice age conditions or worse over the next few years.

We also need to consider the effects of the icelandic volcano on the UK, many volcanoes in the past have had serious effects on our climate for many years to follow, the debris enters the atmosphere and takes years and years to clear, blocking out any sunlight and resulting in drastic cooling.  So that's now four cold cards in play for this winter.  Surely not, yes brace yourselves there is another; a recent report from CNN news explains how scientists are baffled by the shrinking of the upper atmosphere.

Well all you baffeld scientists its very simple really, the sun is the major driver of our climate system, sunspot activity is at an all time unusually low period, this effects everything and in return cools our planet.  So that is now five major cold cards in play, this is no coincidence, it's all part of the earth's natural cycle sytems that relate and correlate with sunspot activity.

The effects are much more than just cooling on the UK and Northern Europe, even when the gulf stream just alters slightly it can change rainfall patterns all over the world, I suggest this is what we are seeing in Pakistan and Colombia at the minute, it really is annoying when I now see news reports picking up on major events in short succession and blaming it on the jet streams, the gulf stream operates on trade winds of course this will effect the jet streams, but they are not going to tell you on the news that the gulf stream has stopped/been interupted, they all know that most people have seen the film the day after tomorrow.

Start preparing for Winter 2010/11 now!  the effects on the floods in Pakistan and Colombia have been fairly rapid in response to my past posts on the whole situation, this will not pass us by!

Wednesday, 4 August 2010

Breaking News! The Gulf Stream has Stopped!

There is recent and very strong evidence that the gulf stream has actually stopped! which I have frequently suggested and reported on throughout my work and blogs over the years.  The main loop or the so called engine which generates the majority of the heat for the gulf stream has detached itself.  This is clear to see from the NOAA in the form of RTOFS (Altlantic) graphic nowcasts from over the past three months.

28th April 2010 - as you can see from the bottom left hand corner, the gulf stream appears to be working and sending warm water towards the UK in the top right hand corner.

7th May 2010 - in the bottom left hand corner you will now notice a loop in the main engine of the gulf stream within the gulf of mexico in comparison to the previous data screen.

7th July 2010 - The loop has now detached itself from the gulf stream and is shown as a figure of 8 in the bottom left hand corner of the data screen.

27th July 2010 - the following data is quite disturbing! as you can see the main engine has detached itself from the gulf stream, I have studied the gulf stream intensely over the past several years and never seen anything like this before.

I am still hoping that this is an Eddy (sections of moving water that can swirl off) but if I am to be honest, the high realism is that this is not, eddys do not swirl off in a clockwise direction in the size of an American State and completley detach themselves in this manner, I would even like to make a scientific suggestion here and state that the USA is likely to get warmer from this as the current may establish a new path in the gulf of mexico, where as the United Kingdom and Northern Europe will experience severe cooling. This is identified in the data screen dated 27th July 2010 above, it is clear to see that the gulf stream has stopped and is no longer sending warm water to the UK, compare the top right hand corners of each of the previous data screens to see this for yourself.

Now compare this with other current events such as the unusual behaviour of the sun and it's minimal sunspot activity, which I reported on last month as well as the situation with the current la nina (ocean cooling), you can actually find that all the cold cards for three major factors on our climate are in play for this coming Winter!  the effects of the gulf stream will be bad enough if nothing changes!!!  my seasonal forecast for winter 2010/2011 would therefore have to change to SEVERE COLD for the UK and Northern Europe, I would also get yourself down to the bookies and place a bet on the thames freezing over between Westminster and tower bridge at 150/1 for either this winter or next, to help you with your extra energy costs, I can't believe that this was 1000/1 in previous years, I wonder if they have been reading my work?

The question is, this is actually going to have severe effects on the UK this coming/future winters without even considering the backdrop from the la nina (ocean cooling) and low sunspot activity, how should we be best prepared for the coldest winters in living memory, which will be followed by a future climate similar to Newfoundland who are on the same latitude as us but does not have the advantage of the gulf stream?

This really does seem ironic after the pentagon report from 2003 into abrupt climate change titled imagining the unthinkable, they actually predicted that the gulf stream would stop in 2010 and was convinced that abrupt climate change was imminent, they also perceived this as a threat to the UN national security due to refugees and starvation from other parts of the world that would freeze.  The video link is below so you can see this for yourself, go to 39mins and watch through to around 42mins.

As you know I favour correlation between sunspot activity and the ocean circulation and have published this in many of my posts, there is however a suggestion by Gianluigi Zangari from the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate that the gulf stream may have been stopped from the BP oil spill

Although this may seem plausible there are to many if's but's and maybe's for my liking as a scientist in the above paper, the gulf stream has been clearly waining over recent years and this happening was inevitable as I have published many many times, I will therefore state that this has not been caused by the BP oil spill, but by the current inactive state of the sun and its effect on the ocean circulation as I have always stated for many years.  I feel this could be a propaganda stunt for when people want answers as to why we was not warned about this impending climate change sooner and was instead being spoon fed global warming junk.  It will be much easier for them to blame it on an oil disaster than actually admit they got it very wrong.

Global warming did exist and that helped melt the glaciers to make the gulf stream unstable during a healthy period of sunspot activity up until 1997, the current low sunspot activity at present is so unusual that it has all the top scientists in a panic including myself due to it's dormant state, it is this that has tipped the gulf stream over the edge and past it's threshold of no immediate return.

Wednesday, 21 July 2010

Global Cooling & New Ice Age (2010 Update)

Hi Everyone,

My apologies for the lengthy delay since my last post, I have however been rather busy with my studies and the hectic life that comes with a newborn baby!

Right where should I start???

Well I do hope you are all enjoying a better than average summer than in recent years, especially here within the UK although it has turned quite wet with the odd autumnal feel of late.  The el nino (ocean warming) has largely influenced the European summer this year, although I would hardly say it has been a barbeque summer, has it?

As we all know the la nina (ocean cooling) always follows this and the immediate signs are not very good.  The la nina appears to have already started to kick in and it would be adequate to expect a similar or even colder winter than 09/10 across the UK and Europe.   So there you have it my seasonal forecast for the winter of 10/11 in July.

On that note I am also not surprised after my expressions in my last post about the UK Met Office in Jan 2010, that they have actually since decided to scrap the seasonal forecasts.  I am however also dissapointed as I won't be able to prove them wrong anymore, I mean honestly no seasonal forecasts they are meant to be the Met Office, weather is their game right?  I think they have pumped their models and forecasts with to much global warming input to be anywhere near accuarte in recent years.


My predictions have and always will be based on the current state of the sun and solar activity (climates main driver) and its effects on ocean circulation and many other factors that I have mentioned in previous posts.  It really is quite a simplistic approach and I honestly do feel that we have spent to much time and effort on the global warming saga that no longer exists, I also feel that we have been over complicating our understanding of planet earth.  Global warming is a natural process that our planet goes through before a return to ice age conditions, it always has done and always will, why would it be any different this time around?  All the evidence is sat there staring us right in the face, why over complicate things?

I have been mocked and ridiculed over the past 2-3 years from family, friends, fellow students and lecturers, with no evidence to back up what I have actually been saying until now! although I did notice lecturers backing off from global warming during my last year of study and placing scenarios in relation to global cooling from the suns activity and ocean circulation as 50/50 now, wow what a change around in attitude since recent years when I was laughed at???

Do you remember my post dated November 2009, I clearly stated that there would be huge news to come within the next 1-10 years in regards to global cooling, go ahead and check it for yourself in the archives section.  A recent publication in the new scientist magazine dated 14th June 2010 by Stuart Clark proves my theory on this, I also can't believe this was published in the highly respectable New Scientist magazine, I finally have something to reference for my studies at university without being penalised.  The most interesting point for myself was the admission from NASA and lead scientist David Hathaway that they was wrong about current solar activity, especially as I seriously scrutinised NASA and Hathaways science behind this in some earlier university work of mine back in 2008.  Hathaway even states that "this is solar behaviour we have not seen in living memory" which proves I was right all along to question his science as incorrect.  You can still view the original piece of work I submitted towards the end of the blog post directly underneath.


Clark also believes that we could be in a new maunder minimum by 2015, something I also happened to mention back in 2008.  Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading believes the chances of this happening now are just a mere 8 per cent.  The article is available to read in full for free below, I do hope you will credit my observations and what I have been saying since 2008 and note any simalarities from my previous work and blogs dated well before this was published.


It is also worth mentioning here that a leading physicist who has spent decades studying ice ages known as Vladimir Paar from Croatia's Zagreb university, recently published in a publication dated 12th feb 2010 that "the reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the new ice age"


I will leave you with a few snippets of information that I found highly interesting in relation to my global cooling theory.  The German online news magazine focus recently reported that a new record low temperature of -50.2 celsius has been set in Antarctica since records began.


The climate news from Germany also reported on the slowest mid summer Arctic ice melt ever by using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) own data, even though the NOAA has declared 2010 as the hottest ever???


Come on NOAA surely you can't still be thrusting global warming on us, I knew you would use the el nino to your advantage, here's some real news for you; we need to get very concerned about the la nina to follow and a much colder climate in the very near future, as we transition to a major phase of global cooling.

Friday, 8 January 2010

Global Cooling & New Ice Age UK - Big Freeze 2010

As the UK is in one of its coldest winters in which some say for 100 years, I have to ask myself how I was able to yet again predict this in a previous post dated the 1st November 2009, yet the UK met office was not.  The head of the met office is paid much more than the prime minister, yet they can not get their forecasts correct!!!  The answer is simple really (the current solar cycle and the lack of sunspots) and (the gulf stream has moved).  The sun is the major driver of our climate and the lack of sunspots is affecting this, where as the warmth that we used to gain from the gulf stream is no more!!! expect more cold winters and poor summers over coming years and do not listen to the met office forecasts as they are most probably hiding these facts from you to prevent any fear.  I fear that we may be heading for the cooling that I have mentioned so much in my posts, aswell as proving the met office wrong on their so called barbecue summer and mild winter, I see it as an impossibility that we could have a mild winter after such a poor summer.   The current satellite scene below is rather eerie dont you think? this is most probably a taste of our near future in Europe, please disregard any global warming fears!!! PROPAGANDA is the appropriate word here