Monday, 27 February 2012

Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012

Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012

As you may or may not be aware via my work and forecasts since 2009, I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters. Please feel free to examine any of my early blog or video entries. This does not necessarily mean that every summer or winter will follow this exact trend, and as a large part of this winter has also quite conclusively proven. However, it does mean that the vast majority of the summer and winters are likely to be this way. The main aim of Exacta Weather has always been to make as many people as possible aware of this transition in weather and climate over the coming years and decades.
This period of transition is largely due to major changes in solar activity levels and how this affects major natural factors here on earth. This transitional period is also part of a cyclical and predictable pattern that has occurred many times throughout our earth's history.
So let's take sunspots and their importance, for example. Sunspots are dark magnetic regions that are visible on the surface of the solar disc.
The amount of solar energy we receive from these sunspots, and the earth directed ejections have an important bearing on a number of major natural factors including: 1. The heating of the stratosphere 2. Atmospheric circulation 3. Ocean circulation 4. Cloud formation
Sunspots are also a good indicator of how magnetically active the sun is. The more magnetically active the sun is, the larger and more intense the sunspots are. Solar storms are also generally emitted from areas that surround these sunspots. However, a less magnetically active sun sets off a whole chain reaction of changes to a number of attributes that influence our climate and weather patterns. The sunspots and solar storms become less intense and infrequent when the sun is not as magnetically active. This also allows the cosmic ray flux to increase and hit earth more frequently. The increase in cosmic rays enhances low level cloud coverage and deflects heat back into space, something that occurred during the Maunder Minimum.
UV rays are also an equally important attribute when the sun is less magnetically active. Less UV rays are emitted from solar storms when there are less sunspots. A decrease in UV radiation and solar winds hitting the earth's upper atmosphere alter the properties of the stratosphere, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of storm tracks. The amount of solar radiation that we receive also has an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland. I have also extensively reported on all of these factors quite frequently over the past few years.


FIG.1 - Near solar maximum in 2001 (NASA/SOHO)

FIG.2 - Galileo sunspots 1612 (Science Museum)

FIG.3 - 27th February 2012 (NASA/SOHO)
The point I am trying to illustrate here, is that we are now recording extra solar activity today that we weren't recording several years ago or through the lenses of Galileo's telescope (FIG 1 & 2). Just look at the magnitude of the sunspots from Galileo (FIG.2) 33 years before the Maunder Minimum in comparison to today's sun in (FIG.3). Galileo was simply recording these with his telescope at certain times of the day. Today, we are constantly recording solar storms and sunspots in 3D 'close up and from the side' since the NASA twin satellite launch in 2006. We are now also meant to be heading into a solar maximum and seeing some huge increases in solar activity according to many other sources.
However, I have reported many times that solar activity and sunspots are minuscule in comparison to what they should be right now, and in accordance to all NASA's predictions to date in recent years. I have also strongly emphasised that the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will also enhance periods of low solar activity in the present and future solar cycles. We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating.
This will also not be counteracted by any so called effects of global warming or CO2 based on my own calculations, and the historical evidence that I have reviewed to date. In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone. This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator (warming) during periods of high solar activity.
Summer 2012 outlook

So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole. It would initially appear that another relatively grey and cool summer is on the cards for many. This does not mean that there will be no warm spells whatsoever throughout this summer. However, any warmer spells are likely to offer more in the way of some quite muggy and humid weather at times. I will also report on any viable warm periods of weather for up to two months in advance in my future forecast updates.
I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either. If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years. The Milankovitch cycle strongly vindicates that ice will return to parts of the northern hemisphere, once the summers become cool enough. The Milankovitch cycle also predicted this pattern with astounding accuracy in the past, and it also places us at this point in the Milankovitch cycle today.

At the very best we are looking at an unsettled to mixed summer for this year. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times. As a whole the temperatures for summer are likely to be near or below average, dependent on which scenario unfolds out of the given two. Rainfall amounts are also likely to be near or above average for the summer as a whole. In terms of the 2012 Olympics and although it does become extremely difficult to forecast for a two-week period this far out in advance, they are also likely to be pretty mixed in terms of the primary location in London. However, as we progress through August and into September, there is the potential for some warm or very warm periods of weather at times.
A number of other weather events that have already occurred in other parts of the world this year, also appear to tie in quite well with a number of recent and historical weather observations that I have personally compiled. They also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer. Now although I would prefer to report on the possibility of such events occurring nearer the time, my forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.
No Meteorological or climate models have been used in the production of this long range forecast, or any of my long range forecasts that date back over the past three years. They are all made on a number of personal observations that also include: solar activity and historical weather patterns from my own unique collective data. This is why I am able to issue a forecast this far in advance without being limited by what the models are indicating. These are the same methods that have served me pretty well to date and will continue to do so in the future over computer models. This method of forecasting allows me to make a long term judgement on the factors that I consider to be the most important, and what I also consider to be the most reliable in the future for long term weather forecasting.
Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Published: Monday 27thFebruary 2012 Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Spring Weather Forecast 2012

Spring Weather Forecast 2012

Now although the spring and autumn periods have become an extremely difficult period to forecast for in recent years, due to some of the unusual patterns that have developed. March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter.

The March to April period is also initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times with some wintry showers in places within this period too. However, the latter part of April and into May could offer some potentially warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times. There does remain some uncertainty with myself in regard to the actual rainfall amounts that we are likely to experience in the second half of spring at present. On this basis, I will say that the rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole. Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too.

Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Published: Monday 27thFebruary 2012
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Saturday, 18 February 2012

New & Important Update

18th February 2012

I would just like to reiterate that the UK has recently endured the coldest start to February in almost 30 years, with only seven February's to date being recorded as colder in terms of Central England Temperature (over 350 years old) with ample widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the south.

Now although the first half of my original winter forecast proved somewhat unsuccessful in terms of the below average temperatures and extensively widespread snowfall that I was forecasting (which I will also cover in my winter review and place on the accuracy page).

I did state on the 30th October 2011 in my final winter outlook that February would experience below average temperatures and some moderate to heavy snowfalls across parts of the UK.

This forecast was also issued nearly four months ago and is available to view in the link provided below:

Even in the revision of my winter forecast in late December, I strongly emphasised that the most severe part of this winter would now be in February. I also forecast a mildish first half to January with cold and snow from mid month onwards and into February. Please feel free to examine any of my previous blog entries and Youtube videos.

Now the UK Met Office poured cold water on any severe weather this winter, they even issued a statement in October that said “recent long range forecasts by other agencies, bear no relation to the kinds of weather that the forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting.”
As it stands the original article is now unavailable, but I managed to find another version of it in the climate realists link below.

Did you also notice how the statement/article named other weather agencies too? There was more than one weather agency and some quite big names too, who was also forecasting similar scenarios to myself about this winter at one stage. Even the Met Office forecast below average temperatures for October in the September 'big freeze' newspaper articles that never developed, which leads me to think that they may have also been this way inclined at one stage too.

However, the Met Office have the ability to swap and change their forecasts on a daily basis, so unless you know a little bit about the weather, it is difficult to pick up on any of their mistakes like the example above.

Another very recent article from the Daily Mirror dated 13th February 2012 also emphasises on this a little further as a Met Office spokesperson said that the big freeze was likely to last until 11thMarch 2012, pretty much the same statement I had said a few days earlier in the Daily Express.

The following article in the link below is the only one newspaper article that I have had any kind of influence on or approved recently.

It actually reads:

Temperatures for FEBRUARY and into the first week of March are likely to be well below-average.”

Just as my Youtube video and blog from 26th January read in a totally separate paragraph, as does my 8th February update below. Please feel free to check them.

Temperatures as a whole for this period FEBRUARY and into the first week of March are likely to be well below-average. It is also likely that there will be some school closures and disruptions to public transport from snowfall within this time period too.”

Now here lies the problem with long range forecasting and how the Met Office comes across to the general public. When I issue these forecasts so far in advance with very little revisions, it is very easy for others to pick holes or emphasise on certain lines/parts of my forecasts to suit their own agendas. I am much more vulnerable to some forecasting errors as I don't swap and change my forecasts every day. Those who do this and don't issue long range forecasts are substantially reducing their odds of ever being wrong, or coming across as wrong with statements that they have also made weeks earlier.

Even then they still struggle to get it right, and another recent example of this is the winds that the Met Office failed to put out an adequate warning for in early January in the link below.

Although I did forecast very strong winds for that exact date many days prior to the event happening, it is not my responsibility as a FREE weather service with no funding to issue these warnings. There has also been a number of recent short range situations in regards to widespread snowfall and exact locations that I have reported on before any warnings from the Met Office were even issued, as many of you have also pointed out in the Guestbook.

If everyone was to take what the Met Office forecast weeks or sometimes days before, you would often find it has changed drastically. In terms of this update I am not saying that the Met Office are unreliable, or hop on over here to Exacta Weather, as it really makes no difference to me as a free service that is not reliant on any type of public funding. I am simply trying to reiterate that even weather forecasting for the professionals is not as always straight forward at it seems, and as I have also learnt for the first time as a forecaster this winter.

So just to clarify that when others were saying nothing as they don't issue forecasts this far ahead, I clearly stated in many updates that from mid January and into February as a whole would feature largely below average temperatures with widespread heavy snow. This is exactly what we have seen to date, and even though it is set to turn milder once again as we head into the start of next week, I still feel that the remainder of February and into the start of spring could still bring a number of notable wintry blasts of cold and snow to the UK that the professional meteorologists are possibly underestimating (and as I originally forecast).

Should this be the case and the CET does come in below average too, then I can certainly claim some sort of success for the second half of my initial long range winter forecast issued four months ago, and with my revised winter forecast in late December that stated colder and snowier from mid January onwards. Although the periods of moderation are likely to be less brief than I had anticipated in my original calculations for the period 15th-28th February. However, in terms of records being broken in regards to the CET, we could still experience the coldest February in at least a decade dependant on the severity and timing of these wintry blasts.

My initial spring and summer forecast will be issued prior to or on the 1st March 2012. These will also be followed by regular long range forecast updates throughout. I am also planning to implement a new long range forecasting system, which will contain any revisions or amendments from the initial long range forecast for up to two months ahead if required.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

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