I have decided to write this blog to simply put across my theories as a scientist and studying geographer/geologist. First off, I am not a con merchant and I am not going to ask you to buy anything, promise!!! I simply want to make as many people aware of my science theories as possible, because if they are correct, there are some very tough and cold times ahead. In fact it would not surprise me if there are huge global cooling/ice age news alerts anytime within the next 1-10 years, I mean you only have to look out of the window here in the UK to realise that the climate has changed, look at the past several summers as a huge indicator, yes I have heard of natural fluctuations here and there, but this is quite a big anomaly, + huge huge huge indicator is the global temperature decrease over the past decade, yes you heard that right a DECREASE!!! not global temperature rises, (Global Warming, what Global Warming???) this no longer exists i'm afraid
I am still in the process of finishing my degree, for which a lot of I do not agree with and often find myself in trouble with the lecturers, as this makes what they have researched themselves/teaching incorrect. Its really difficult writing essays that you don't agree with just to get a good mark and pass the subject, so I will gain a lot of satisfaction from this blog.
I have also outsmarted the met office in the UK on the last two occasions as documented in this previous blog when I was slighlty less mature, my science is however now a lot stricter and not as far fetched
I am also going to state that the met office is wrong about a mild winter for 09/10, and whats all that about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold??? forget that it will be a cold winter for most of europe and the UK!!!
I only intend on documenting strong and reliable information on this blog, which will cover a large number of subjects starting with the current solar cycle (climates most important factor - FACT!!!). This is one of the only safe pieces of work that I have been able to submit at university, that strongly uphold my science and research, without being penalised for it as the references was not strong enough, by the way I got a first mark for it (highest in the whole year) and critisized the science of nasa scientist david hathaway, read it for yourself below and I will be back soon with more of my work/research if your interested. Thanks for reading, another post will follow soon inc effects on the UK and Europe, the Gulf Stream etc etc etc!!!
The sun has been rather blank of sunspot activity in recent years, with only eleven sunspots officially recorded to date throughout 2009. This low sunspot activity that we are currently experiencing has recently been subject to media coverage in the form of scientific papers, named websites, news coverage, media articles, as well as conflict amongst scientists.
Sunspots are dark regions with highly magnetic fields that can be visible from earth. The sunspots fluctuate in activity, and the current decline may indicate a solar event in the form of global cooling, hence some increased media coverage and confusing correlations between the suns output and the earths climate.
The main environmental effects on earth would be worldwide famine and starvation, due to the reduced growing seasons, providing that the sun was heading for a maunder minimum like state as some media suggest, with the most worthwhile examples evaluated below, and others included in the conclusion.
Media Coverage Evaluations
Dr Willie Soon is a well respected Harvard solar physicist that believes the amount of solar energy we receive depends upon sunspot activity as published in his paper. He states that scientists have kept records that reveal warmer weather during high sunspot activity, with colder weather during low sunspot activity. He also interestingly commented on the rise in wheat prices during weak cycles due to less light and heat being produced from the sun, which relates to the main environmental factor of food shortages as previously mentioned.
He also reports that global temperatures have declined for seven years in succession, enhancing on previous correlations between sunspot activity and the temperature on earth. It is also reported that even the smallest of temperature changes to earth, can seriously alter the climate, with direct evidence revealing the sunspot activities influence on the oceans circulation, which only results in sea temperature changes some five to twenty years later.
His theory does seem to hold relatively well, with all the science appearing to make sense, although no direct scientific evidence in the form of graphs are offered, and at present is unreliable, although his background must give him some good stature.
David Hathaway is a well respected solar physicist for NASA, who recently reported that there was nothing wrong with the sun on the highly respected NASA website. He stated that the average length of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. In July 2008 this was 142 months the standard deviation of 14 months was officially over in October 2008, which means we are now 13 months (November 2009) outside of his prediction. Although Hathaway suggests that the current solar cycle does not worry him, anticipating many more spotless days before a return to solar max conditions in around 2012? His theories appear very confusing for a scientist who has claimed to of cracked the suns conveyor belt as far back as 1890.
Two very well respected solar physicists can simply not agree on what is going on, and media sources are catching on to this divide. Although David Hathaway is well respected and the media source is reliable, his science does not add up in regards to the current solar cycle. His claim to have cracked the suns conveyor belt as far back as 1890, may not be far enough as a recent publication in The Belfast Telegraph predicts the current and next solar cycles will be weak, based on 200 year observations in Armagh, Northern Ireland (Belfast Telegraph, 2008).
Hathaway has himself also reported in 2006, that the sun has reached a record low crawl rate, his exact words on the NASA website was “its off the bottom of the charts, which has future repercussions for future solar activity” (NASA, 2008), leading to a weak solar cycle in around 2022, so it seems that either way cooling is coming.
It is however beyond me why he contradicted his science by mentioning the standard deviation, then covering his attempt at the end by stating maybe 2012. It is however important to remember that the sun is not the only influence on climate, el ninos, volcanic activity, and greenhouse gases also hold good scientific ground, and maybe Hathaway is also taking these in to consideration, although he does openly admit that their are two evenly split camps amongst scientists on which way the sun will go (Fox News, 2008).
Saku Tsuneta another solar physicist from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan also agrees with Hathaway “it continues to be dead, that’s a small concern, a very small concern” he said.
As unreliable as Willie Soons paper may appear about the current cycle, it appears that we don’t really know what is happening with the sun at present, and maybe we could be heading for global cooling as he suggests, the correlations are available with past periods of inactivity and temperature declines on earth, with temperature declines in recent years equivalent to the return of ice age conditions (ABC News, 2008). The treatment received from the media at present may be minimal, although if it should suddenly increase there would be a cause for concern, due to the huge environmental factors it would pose on a worldwide scale.
TG Daily, (2009) Sunspot activity correlates to climate change. Retrieved on: 11/04/09 http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/42006/181/
NASA, (2008) What’s Wrong with the Sun (Nothing). Retrieved on: 02/04/09 http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm
Belfast Telegraph, (2008) Is there a cold future just lying in wait for us?. Retrieved on: 04/04/09 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/letters/is-there-a-cold-future-just-lying-in-wait-for-us-13938036.html
NASA, (2006) Long Range Solar Forecast. Retrieved on: 02/04/09 http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
FOX News, (2008) Could Waning Sunspots Bring On New Ice Age. Retrieved on: 05/04/09 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,366061,00.html
ABC News, (2008) Ice age claim angers scientists. Retrieved on: 07/04/09 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/24/2225980.htm