Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms

Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms
To date the 2015 summer has been rather changeable and unsettled with nothing spectacular in terms of prolonged warm weather due to a more southerly driven jet-stream, which allows low pressure and rainfall to dominate proceedings across the UK and Ireland.

Our 8 month ahead summer forecast that was issued before any other meteorological forecast for the summer period of 2015 has correctly identified the following to date:

A largely unsettled June and July with below-average temperatures due to a southerly driven jet-stream from a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and low solar activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation has been largely negative throughout June and July and temperatures in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET) were below-average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Our 8 month 2015 summer forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated all of the following to subscribers in reference to this:

The 2015 summer period (June to August) is likely to endure some much colder and wetter than average conditions as a whole, and in comparison to last year. The June to August, period is therefore, likely to experience a dominating pattern of quite wet weather and untimely summertime storms.

Although 2014 proved to be a warm year for the UK, with every month except August featuring an above-average CET (Central England Temperature), the 2015 summer period is likely to be somewhat different and significantly cooler overall. This is due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how this intrinsically alters our long-term weather patterns and ocean behaviour. This will become quite apparent throughout the early part of 2015, and for what is also likely to be a much colder than average summer period, for which we are likely to experience a strong displacement of the jet-stream southwards throughout the upcoming summer period for some quite prolonged periods.

The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer.

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office and PA Meteogroup:

"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9th April 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th February 2015:

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-winter-last-another-5240729

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1st January 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/549619/2015-weather-forecast-UK-five-months-cold-winter

The major warm spell at the end of June/start of July which brought the hottest July day temperatures on record

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

This doesn't mean consistent colder than average conditions and rain for the upcoming summer period, and some periods of moderation or near normal temperatures can be expected to develop at times. The latter part of June and into the final month of summer is likely to offer some respite from these conditions at times, although we don't expect it to become exceptionally warm or hot for any prolonged periods or for the time of the year within this period.

However, a number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August, that could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with at the very least, before becoming more widespread to other parts of the country later.

Our forecast also indicated a pattern change to a more influential Azores High throughout the latter part of July and into August/September.

This is where those who feel the need to try and pick holes in our forecasts will gladly try and do so as they have nothing else to pick at, and they will also 'incorrectly' say that this pattern change should of happened weeks ago. So lets cover what they don't want you to know or what they will try and brush under the carpet in terms of our latest long range forecast achievements.

Our long range forecast for the summer accurately forecast the more unsettled and cooler theme and the exact causes to date from a more southerly driven jet-stream/negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - as outlined in various media articles and our long-range subscribers reports which we have provided proof links to within this update. It is also important to remember that our initial calculations for this 'developing' pattern change was from 8 months ahead, and with such long range calculations our long range forecasts always state that some standard deviation has to be applied. In essence the forecast has correctly identified a pattern change to a more influential Azores high for the period it stated, but it is taking some time to establish itself firmly so that it becomes beneficial for most and if not all parts of the country. The heat and high pressure is there, and many in the southern half of the country have benefited quite well recently in terms of some quite warm to hot conditions and settled weather, whereas parts further north have still struggled with some suppressed temperatures and further changeable weather despite an improving theme of better and warmer weather days when compared to the rest of the summer to date. However, the timing was there for these changes, in particular, in the southern half of the country, just as they were for June and July in terms of the cooler and more unsettled weather conditions.

So just to be 100% clear – our forecast correctly favoured a largely unsettled and cool summer with a gradual pattern change throughout August and into September.

We also stated in our long range forecast that it may take some time to become more effective to the rest of the UK and Ireland, and at the very latest we could see these conditions taking more of a stronghold during the second half of August and into much of September as the jet stream returns to a more beneficial position for an Azores High to become more influential across our shores, thus allowing for a number of prolonged warm to hot periods of weather for many.
The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.

"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to be cooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August.

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to some major thunderstorms and potential flooding for the first half of August which is now being reflected upon from standard meteorology for later this week + for the exact locations (14th - 15th August):

This will also bring the additional risk of some notable and widespread flood events/vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in parts of south-west/southern England and later to parts of north-east England for in or around the first half of August.

Summary

These cooler summers are also a clear indication of where our future climate and weather patterns are heading in terms of cooler/wetter summers and colder snowier winters, and everything Exacta Weather has ever stood for scientifically since our launch in 2010, and despite the bastion of support for the principles behind global warming.

Our original summer forecast PDF is also available to view by clicking here


Recent scientific articles (2015) such as this will now also become more commonplace in the coming years and decades:

Britain Faces Freezing Winters As Slump In Solar Activity Threatens Little Ice Age

http://rightedition.com/2015/06/24/britain-faces-freezing-winters-as-slump-in-solar-activity-threatens-little-ice-age/

It also stated the following: James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the effects may be felt as soon as this winter.

He also said: “Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. “We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. “On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16.”

UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 11th August 2015 – James Madden

Please note that this update was posted to subscribers at an earlier time


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