Wednesday, 26 December 2012

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?


Winter 2012/13 Weather Forecast Update

December 2012

The first half of December began on a very cold note for much of the country, it also brought periods of snow to parts of the UK including the south, along with blizzard conditions to parts of the north within the given time frame as suggested in the early November forecast release.


The remainder of December has been largely dominated across many areas by rain and strong winds from Atlantic low pressure systems. Even though our original December forecasts (produced in June and early November) stated that a period of moderation couldn't be ruled out around mid-month, with the potential for some extremely windy and wet conditions to develop, the Atlantic themed regime has been far more dominant than expected for this particular forecasting period (hence the wetter than average conditions, rather than drier than average). This part of the forecast has therefore proved unsuccessful on this occasion. However, can others please take into consideration how far ahead these forecasts are issued in comparison to others, and the disclaimer statement about deviations and exact timing of scenarios that is attached to them.

Had the colder conditions from Eastern Europe developed as our forecast and many others expected it to (including the BBC and Met Office), we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 or worse (the coldest December in 100 years), which was also forecast by myself in January 2010 and August 2010 (11 months and 5 months ahead of the event occurring – please see forecast archives and accuracy @ 


Mean temperatures for December 2012 were almost -3C below the seasonal average up until this point of change too.




Claims from the media and headlines in reference to “THE COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS” were also immediately corrected on our behalf, on the date they was released. The archived posts are available to view in the following link below dated 17th November 2012:


A separate posting from ourselves was also made on the 19th November 2012 in the BBC Paul Hudson blog titled “What's behind the coldest winter for 100 years headline?”


(Please see comments section (number 14) from James Madden of Exacta Weather in the BBC link below.


The same information as above was also posted in updates to our followers on Twitter and Facebook on the same dates as above.

Just for the record, our forecast actually stated “with the POSSIBILITY of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES”, somewhat different to the coldest winter in 100 years. It also stated that this was most likely to occur in the December to January period of the upcoming 2012/13 winter.


So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

January and February 2013

In the short term, the Atlantic themed regime looks likely to persist for the first third of January or up until around the mid-month point at the very least. This is likely to bring a mixed bag of mild, wet, and windy weather, with some interspersions of colder weather at times too. This topsy-turvy weather pattern is also likely to result in a number of snow events too, but especially more so across some northern parts of the country. However, as we progress throughout the remainder of January and into the start of February, it is likely that it will become progressively colder, even severely cold at times (especially across northern and eastern parts of the country). This is also likely to bring a number of major snow events across the country during this period, which also includes areas to the south.

Little or no amendment is therefore required to the remainder of our detailed 2012/13 winter and snow risk dates forecast that is available to subscribers in the link below for this given period. We also expect these conditions to persist into the start of spring 2013, with the potential for some record-breaking weather at times in terms of snow, cold, and warm spells too (also available to subscribers in the link below).


Please also feel free to check out the short range section for you area, which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day


Update added: 26th December 2012 (20:15)

Friday, 21 December 2012

*Special Winter Update* 2012/13

*Special Winter Update*

The current mean CET is -1.4C below the seasonal average for December.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Had the beast from the east developed as many others also expected, we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 (mean temps were almost -3C below average at this point).

http://news.sky.com/story/1022049/snow-alert-cold-weather-beast-to-hit-uk

However, we did also state in our early November forecast that:

"a brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some EXTREMELY WINDY conditions to develop at times", 

Although this period of moderation has been less brief than originally anticipated, it certainly has been extremely windy for this forecasting period as suggested.

The Met Office also forecast cold to very cold for December after our forecast was issued
Claims from the Met Office about this winter in the link below about their supercomputers being more accurate than ever in October (after our original winter forecast was issued), that the tax-payer has funded.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355056/Britain-set-to-freeze-in-long-Arctic-winter 

Exacta Weather does not receive any kind of government/public funding whatsoever, yet our long-range forecasts and methodology proves far more successful than the waste of space number crunchers! Please see link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html


Winter is also far from over (January & February), and we also expect potentially record-breaking conditions during the (spring 2013) period too @

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
Added: 21st December 2012
 

Thursday, 13 December 2012

13th December 2012 Update

Thursday will begin on another chilly note for most parts before low pressure begins to move gradually eastwards. With the cooler air still in place across the UK, this will bring the risk of some heavy snow at times across higher ground in parts of the north, with the risk of some lighter sleet and snow showers to some lower levels too. As we head into Friday the low pressure and weather fronts will continue to move eastwards, although these are likely to become quite slow-moving. This is likely to bring some further snow showers across higher ground in the north, with the risk of some further sleet and snow showers to some lower levels of the country too, but especially more so across higher ground in parts as far south as the Midlands/southern England.

Elsewhere will then see the development of some rather wet and very windy conditions as we head into the weekend. This will also bring some much milder conditions to parts of the south, and although parts of the north will be milder than of late too, it will still feel chilly with the continued risk of some wintry precipitation, especially across higher ground.

However, it won’t be long before the cold and wintry weather begins to establish itself across the country quite widely once again.

The original and detailed December outlook that was made available on the 9thNovember 2012 to subscribers also stated:

"A brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some extremely windy conditions to develop at times"
Update added: Thursday 13th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see:


Please also see the short range section for your area that is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of model suggestions:


 


Thursday will see snowfall across higher ground in parts of Scotland, in particular in parts of southern Scotland. It will also be quite chilly in these parts with the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop at times. By Friday further sleet and snow showers will become more prominent in parts of eastern Scotland. It will also feel much cooler in parts of the north throughout Friday too.


As we head into the weekend, we will see a continuation of wintry weather across Scotland. There will once again be the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop again across higher ground, and it will also feel much colder for most parts of the UK too, especially in parts of the north (excluding the far south). The wintry weather is more likely to be confined to the east in these parts on Saturday too. Sunday will bring further snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland, with the potential for some moderate to heavy falls of snow at times. There may also be the potential risk of some sleet and snow showers across higher ground in parts of northern England and to the east of the country throughout the course of this weekend and into next week too.


Update added: Thursday 20th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly


For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see (includes free white Christmas snow forecast):


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html


You can also enter our FREE white Christmas 2012 competition to win a scientific weather station in the link below:


http://www.exactaweather.com/-New__White_Christmas.html