Winter
2012/13 Weather Forecast Update
December
2012
The
first half of December began on a very cold note for much of the
country, it also brought periods of snow to parts of the UK including
the south, along with blizzard conditions to parts of the north
within the given time frame as suggested in the early November
forecast release.
The
remainder of December has been largely dominated across many areas by
rain and strong winds from Atlantic low pressure systems. Even though
our original December forecasts (produced in June and early November)
stated that a period of moderation couldn't be ruled out around
mid-month, with the potential for some extremely windy and wet
conditions to develop, the Atlantic themed regime has been far more
dominant than expected for this particular forecasting period (hence
the wetter than average conditions, rather than drier than average).
This part of the forecast has therefore proved unsuccessful on this
occasion. However, can others please take into consideration how far
ahead these forecasts are issued in comparison to others, and the
disclaimer statement about deviations and exact timing of scenarios
that is attached to them.
Had
the colder conditions from Eastern Europe developed as our forecast
and many others expected it to (including the BBC and Met Office), we
would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 or
worse (the coldest December in 100 years), which was also forecast by
myself in January 2010 and August 2010 (11 months and 5 months ahead
of the event occurring – please see forecast archives and accuracy
@
Mean
temperatures for December 2012 were almost -3C below the seasonal
average up until this point of change too.
Claims
from the media and headlines in reference to “THE COLDEST WINTER IN
100 YEARS” were also immediately corrected on our behalf, on the
date they was released. The archived posts are available to view in
the following link below dated 17th November 2012:
A
separate posting from ourselves was also made on the 19th
November 2012 in the BBC Paul Hudson blog titled “What's behind the
coldest winter for 100 years headline?”
(Please
see comments section (number 14) from James Madden of Exacta Weather
in the BBC link below.
The
same information as above was also posted in updates to our followers on
Twitter and Facebook on the same dates as above.
Just
for the record, our forecast actually stated “with the POSSIBILITY
of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century
AT TIMES”, somewhat different to the coldest winter in 100 years.
It also stated that this was most likely to occur in the December to
January period of the upcoming 2012/13 winter.
So
what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?
January
and February 2013
In
the short term, the Atlantic themed regime looks likely to persist
for the first third of January or up until around the mid-month point
at the very least. This is likely to bring a mixed bag of mild, wet,
and windy weather, with some interspersions of colder weather at
times too. This topsy-turvy weather pattern is also likely to result
in a number of snow events too, but especially more so across some
northern parts of the country. However, as we progress throughout the
remainder of January and into the start of February, it is likely
that it will become progressively colder, even severely cold at times
(especially across northern and eastern parts of the country). This
is also likely to bring a number of major snow events across the
country during this period, which also includes areas to the south.
Little
or no amendment is therefore required to the remainder of our
detailed 2012/13 winter and snow risk dates forecast that is
available to subscribers in the link below for this given period. We
also expect these conditions to persist into the start of spring
2013, with the potential for some record-breaking weather at times in
terms of snow, cold, and warm spells too (also available to
subscribers in the link below).
Please
also feel free to check out the short range section for you area,
which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each
day
Update
added: 26th December 2012 (20:15)
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