Wednesday, 26 December 2012

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

Winter 2012/13 Weather Forecast Update

December 2012

The first half of December began on a very cold note for much of the country, it also brought periods of snow to parts of the UK including the south, along with blizzard conditions to parts of the north within the given time frame as suggested in the early November forecast release.

The remainder of December has been largely dominated across many areas by rain and strong winds from Atlantic low pressure systems. Even though our original December forecasts (produced in June and early November) stated that a period of moderation couldn't be ruled out around mid-month, with the potential for some extremely windy and wet conditions to develop, the Atlantic themed regime has been far more dominant than expected for this particular forecasting period (hence the wetter than average conditions, rather than drier than average). This part of the forecast has therefore proved unsuccessful on this occasion. However, can others please take into consideration how far ahead these forecasts are issued in comparison to others, and the disclaimer statement about deviations and exact timing of scenarios that is attached to them.

Had the colder conditions from Eastern Europe developed as our forecast and many others expected it to (including the BBC and Met Office), we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 or worse (the coldest December in 100 years), which was also forecast by myself in January 2010 and August 2010 (11 months and 5 months ahead of the event occurring – please see forecast archives and accuracy @ 

Mean temperatures for December 2012 were almost -3C below the seasonal average up until this point of change too.

Claims from the media and headlines in reference to “THE COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS” were also immediately corrected on our behalf, on the date they was released. The archived posts are available to view in the following link below dated 17th November 2012:

A separate posting from ourselves was also made on the 19th November 2012 in the BBC Paul Hudson blog titled “What's behind the coldest winter for 100 years headline?”

(Please see comments section (number 14) from James Madden of Exacta Weather in the BBC link below.

The same information as above was also posted in updates to our followers on Twitter and Facebook on the same dates as above.

Just for the record, our forecast actually stated “with the POSSIBILITY of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES”, somewhat different to the coldest winter in 100 years. It also stated that this was most likely to occur in the December to January period of the upcoming 2012/13 winter.

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

January and February 2013

In the short term, the Atlantic themed regime looks likely to persist for the first third of January or up until around the mid-month point at the very least. This is likely to bring a mixed bag of mild, wet, and windy weather, with some interspersions of colder weather at times too. This topsy-turvy weather pattern is also likely to result in a number of snow events too, but especially more so across some northern parts of the country. However, as we progress throughout the remainder of January and into the start of February, it is likely that it will become progressively colder, even severely cold at times (especially across northern and eastern parts of the country). This is also likely to bring a number of major snow events across the country during this period, which also includes areas to the south.

Little or no amendment is therefore required to the remainder of our detailed 2012/13 winter and snow risk dates forecast that is available to subscribers in the link below for this given period. We also expect these conditions to persist into the start of spring 2013, with the potential for some record-breaking weather at times in terms of snow, cold, and warm spells too (also available to subscribers in the link below).

Please also feel free to check out the short range section for you area, which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day

Update added: 26th December 2012 (20:15)

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