Sunday, 28 November 2010 - Winter 2010/11 Update

My apologies regarding the small delay everyone, but I have been rather busy of late. I am now working with as one of there UK long range forecasters. Don't worry everyone I am not getting paid a penny, so I will not be changing any of my opinions.

Exacta Weather is a non profit weather organisation consisting of meteorologists from around the world, who share data and research on a voluntary basis like myself. The forecasters and planned forecasters simply have a passion for weather with a background history in the subject, and proven track records in accurate weather forecasting.

I feel this is a huge step in the right direction for me at the present time, especially as I have been largely ignored, even though I have been reporting this winter since very early this year in my blog and research papers.  I will still publish to my blog for nostalgic purposes, my main efforts and detailed forecasts will however now be with exacta weather.

As for this winter guys, the gulf stream has not improved and we are still in a minimum solar cycle. Both of these factors will have dire effects on the UK in terms of temperature reductions (solar cycle - global effects). The La Nina continues to ever strengthen and is capable of further temperature reductions (globally). This will also bring more precipitation to the UK in the form of widespread and heavy snowfalls. It is going to be as bad as I have originally forecast with very few and if any mild spells, now let's look at the accuracy of this forecast come March/April 2011.

Feel free to view my UK long range forecast, or contact me through them.

J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)

Monday, 15 November 2010

UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011 - November Update

Thank you for all your comments everyone and your requests for an update.  As it stands not much has changed in regards to my winter forecast, I believe the coming weeks and months will truly begin to illustrate what I have been saying.

1. Gulf Stream

It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1).  It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream.  As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers.  This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.

Fig 1 (NOAA, 2010)

Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)

2. La Nina

The current La Nina continues to strengthen and is looking more than capable of causing a sharp decline in global temperatures.  It is also influential to the UK in terms of changes in global weather patterns as I have previously stated.  The UK can therefore expect more precipitation than usual over the coming months, which I suggest we may already be seeing at present and as suggested in my previous blog post dated 21st September 2010.  Now couple this with freezing temperatures and the increased cloud cover from low solar activity and it becomes highly plausible that heavy snowfall will also influence this winter.

3. Solar Activity

The FACT still remains that we are still in a minimum when we should actually be in a maximum.  Yes sunspot activity has increased this year, but it is important to remember that the sun was blank for over 70% of last year and this will effect this coming winter.  This will also have future effects on further prolonged periods of low solar activity.  Now couple this low solar activity with the regional effects of the Eyjafjallaj√∂kull volcano in Iceland and the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere.  These factors will result in an increased blocking out of sunlight from our already weak sun, which will carry a combined effect in terms of temperature reductions.

I am therefore still currently forecasting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!  The winter of 2011/2012 is still the height of my concerns and could prove even worse than the one we are about to experience right now, due to the lag effect that comes with a number of these processes.

Unfortunately I do feel like I am repeating myself, but as stated nothing much has changed in regards to my winter forecast.  It would be fair to state that the situation has actually worsened in terms of the strengthening La Nina and the unimproved behaviour of the gulf stream.  I therefore suggest it is time to wrap up and make those last minute preparations before this winter well and truly grips us!

In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months.  I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide

I must say a huge thank you to editor Steve Dowle from WSG Media for making this possible.  The latest edition of the World Snowboard Guide is also available to purchase online from their website above or at any respectable high street book retailer.