Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Change Is Here For The Weather SUMMER - UK & Ireland

Change Is Here For The Weather & Change Is Here For Our New Website

For a large part of the summer to date we have experienced a rather changeable and unsettled theme for many, in particular, in many parts of Ireland, and in northern and western areas of the United Kingdom during July. In exception for one notable and widespread heat blast during the latter part of June and into early July, there has been nothing notable in terms of prolonged settled weather and exceptional warmth (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that there was the potential for a major heat blast during the end of June and early July + the major lightning and thunderstorms/flooding that followed).

However, some parts to the south of the UK have fared better at times in terms of warmer and more settled weather, although it still won't be enough to stop July from becoming the third consecutive month of below-average temperatures in terms of the Central England Temperature (CET) which is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that June and July were likely to be colder than average months overall).
To date we have seen a more southerly driven jet-stream which brings more changeable and unsettled weather to our shores. However, as we enter into the weekend of the 1st August, we are likely to see a quite significant pattern change to a more northerly driven jet-stream. This will allow high pressure to become more prominent across our shores from this weekend onwards and into much of August.

The outcome will result in more settled and largely warm to hot weather conditions for most parts of the country within this period, in particular, in the southern half of the country. There is also the potential for some exceptional heat spikes now that this pattern change is taking place, and we are likely to see a number of these developing throughout August. These could match or be similar in comparison to what we experienced in early July, but for more prolonged periods given the stage of summer that we are now entering. However, it may take a little longer to entirely nudge the unsettled conditions from some more northern and western areas than initially anticipated (please also bear in mind that the initial solar calculations for these changes in our long range forecasts were from 8 months ahead, and that we need to allow for some deviations in exact timing)
However, it won't remain entirely settled all the time, and some parts are still likely to see some occasional showers, in particular, in some of these northern and western areas and parts of Ireland, but in among any showers it will feel rather warm and pleasant for the majority of the time for most parts of the country in August. There is also the risk for some heavy and potentially thundery showers at times with these heat surges, and the additional risk of some localised flooding to be prepared for at the very least.

The following media article stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

(These exact forecast details were also released 5 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.
James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable andunsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.
"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.
"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.
"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to becooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.
"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as thejet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer, in particular in some parts to the north and east"

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office:

However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance.

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9th April 2015:
(These forecast details were also released 4 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.
These can alter longer term weather patterns around the globe and trigger anomalies in weather patterns for further ahead.
Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th February 2015:
(These forecast details were also released 2 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)
James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.
"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for Ireland in particular.
Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.
He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.
"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.
"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.
The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1st January 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder (2015).
He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.
He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.
There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.
Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.
This is a superb piece of coverage on our scientific work and analysis via the Daily Express, and despite only 'minor' and not 'major' stratospheric warming during the winter of 2014/15 for the period we stated from several months ahead (hence it not being as cold and snowy as expected overall), this media article still holds high validity for many other areas within our scientific work/long range weather forecasts that we would like to refer back to now and in future.
This really will be our last ever posting/weather update via the old Exacta Weather website until our new website goes live during the evening of the 1st August. It's out with the old and in with the new as we say goodbye to our old website that has served us for the last five years' and hello to the new and improved Exacta Weather website for the future.
In the meantime this is your last chance to take advantage of the FREE weather station offer from the Science Museum with our lifetime subs offer for only £49.99 in the link below (Never pay a penny again for our forecasts + Last few days remaining on this offer):
UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 29th July 2015 – James Madden