UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011

Now this is very interesting!

I actually have received a number of comments through my blog post and youtube video over the past few days that was very similar to the posting by KATENG.  I had to delete the first two comments due to the swear words and abuse that they contained towards my work, as my work is also open to all ages.  I mean these comments was quite nasty and personal, I even felt the need to comment back and say that I was not saying I was right about everything, the purpose of this was purely me being modest and it was meant in the context of me not being sure about what we are heading for in terms of cooling.  ie whether or not we are heading for little ice age/ice age conditions or just a general cooling trend.

Here is the first comment:

You are "not saying you are right about everthing" and yet you are so sure you are right that you have instructed every newspaper and the Met Office to issue severe weather warnings for a period five months ahead? That doesn't add up.


There was no personal attack in my comment. And I am nothing to do with "the global warming boom", whatever that might be. I am, however, a professional meteorologist who has to deal with fallout arising from the worries of clients who read the certainties in forecasts such as yours.


You are of course entitles to an opinion but to dress it up as thorough science is misleading.


I shall re-post my objections in a "cleaned up" version, and perhaps you could address the points I raise - THAT'S science.

Do you think that this professional meteorologist having to deal with fallout arising from worried clients could possibly be some weather organisation or global warming alarmist? Do you think they are possibly annoyed with me for contacting every UK newspaper with my prediction, on the basis of my previously correct seasonal forecasts. I am guessing a lot of people must have been in touch with this specific organisation or person recently in regards to my work, maybe this is because there is some validity in what I am saying. Why else would people be making a fuss about what I say for me to cause an arising fallout amongst worried clients?

Here is the second comment:

There is a lot wrong with your assertions.


1. You are fatally confusing local weather with global climate.


2. Sunspot activity is currently INCREASING.


3. We just experienced the second warmest year globally on record (2009) and the warmest January to July period globally on record (2010) at a time of sunspot minimum.


4. There was nowhere near enough debris from Eyjafjallajökull to affect northern hemispheric temperatures. Moreover, it lacked significant ejections of sulfur dioxide which is the aerosol that causes most of the cooling after large eruptions.
5. The thermosphere is behaving in an interesting fashion at the moment. But take me through the thought process that makes you link a shrinking thermosphere to temperatures in the *troposphere*.
6. How do you think the thermosphere will hold onto volcanic ash and cut solar radiation when what little volcanic debris there is from the Icelandic volcano will not even reach that height?


7. La Nina does NOT *always* immediately follow El Nino. In *this instance* it is likely to.


8. You have made no provision for forecasting the state of the AO/NAO nor do you make any mention of the PDO, AMO or any of the other likely drivers.


9. Here's what might happen in the UK/parts of Europe - first half of the winter will be colder than average, second half will be near normal or even a little milder than average, and not "worse than last year". It's as good a guess as yours.

The purpose of me showing you the above comment is so you can note the similarities in the original daily mail posting from KATENG below, which I am now going to address with hard facts that you can also research for yourself.

First of all, I loved the way that they tried to make me to look instantly stupid by commenting on the thames freezing.  My prediction however is that the UK will experience a winter similar to the last or much worse as I expect due to the cold factors in play, the following winter of 2011/12 is also a height of concern.  The thames freezing over is not my predicition I simply stated this as a possibility.  I have mentioned this in my posts due to the fact that when we was last in little ice age conditions, the thames actually did freeze over due to low solar activity, volcanic activity, and a slowdown of the ocean conveyor.  These are all factors that I have mentioned to you throughout the last few years, you can even check this for yourself below, don't worry wikipedia is not a weak reference in regards to what caused the little ice age as this is common knowledge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

1.  I am sure that I am not fatally confusing local weather with global climate, maybe it is this sort of thinking that led to a mild winter forecast for the UK last year when I predicted a severe winter.  I am predicting local weather not global climate, although I have suggested global cooling due to low solar activity.

2.  In 2006 NASA made a prediction for the next sunspot maximum to be between 150 and 200 around the year 2011 (30-50% stronger than cycle 23), followed by a weak maximum at around 2022.  The prediction did not come true as highlighted in my 2009 essay @ https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1YahKtCYLkiGef6acK-c1SFFU1s9dyvisk4uAgOs9PSk&pli=1
The sunspot cycle in 2010 is still at its minimum, where it should have been near its maximum, showing the suns very unusual low activity, this also has future effects on low solar activity.  You really do need to check out the recent new scientist article below  http://www.sott.net/articles/show/210503-What-s-wrong-with-the-sun-

3.   Well it certainly did not feel warm to me? Plus this warming data is from the NOAA as highlighted in my blog post on the 21st July 2010.  This data can not be trusted as 100% reliable as outlined by respected American physicist, Dr Charles R. Anderson.
http://www.revolutionbroadcasting.com/?p=692
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/26758

4.  Well there must of been a lot of debris from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano as all the airports was shut down all over Europe for weeks.  Yes the amount of sulfur dioxide does play a role and ash generally does fall back to earth.  I am however approaching the word generally with caution, as the point here and another fact is that some ash will have not fallen back to earth, sulfur gases will also still be present in the stratosphere for at least another year or so yet, it is this effect and also fact that this will block out extra sunlight.

5.  The thermosphere is behaving in a very interesting fashion, I mentioned this as it clearly appears to be cooling in correlation with the low sunspot activity as I clearly stated.  I did mention that any debris would stay in the atmosphere longer due to the shrinkage and this was in terms of space debris in the upper atmosphere, the space debris will reflect back some sunlight however miniscule it used to be thought of before the shrinkage.  The fact remains that the upper atmosphere does appear to be shrinking and scientists are confused by this.  My hypothesis is that this extra space debris will reflect even further sunlight away than the miniscule amount it usually would, common sense really when you think about it.  Now couple this with the new volcanic debris in the atmosphere from recent eruptions including Eyjafjallajökull and you will start to understand what I am trying to say.

6.  I feel it is irrelevant on this occasion if the la nina always follows the el nino as I stated.  In general it actually does but there are times when it may not.  I feel this is rather nit picky to be honest, the real problem has been avoided here with the monster la nina that we are about to experience as I have previously outlined.

7.  I am not confusing local weather with global climate again am I?  as I have previously suggested earlier maybe it is this kind of thinking and computer models that has produced stacks of incorrect seasonal forecasts.

I also found it very interesting that there was no mention of the gulf stream in all of this, especially as this is one of the most talked about factors on my posts.  The effects from the gulf stream on the UK from slight anomalies can be bad enough on its own without even considering any of the other factors that I have mentioned.  It is also interesting they predict a colder than average winter for for the first half of winter, so why are you having a go at my work again?

So there is not actually a lot wrong with my assertions at all, none of this can actually be disproved.

As for you KATENG you are obviously not going to let me get my point across and raise awareness, I actually feel like you have invaded my life over the past few days with your abusive comments towards the work on my blog, the youtube video which you branded pathetic, and now your on here.  I also love the way that the last line of the KATENG post mentioned the frozen thames again, it would appear that the person responsible here used an excellent credibility technique to make me look uncredible.  Notice how it was mentioned at the start and the end of the post, this was done deliberately so it stuck in your head, the frozen thames really was a very minor part of all the information I have ever provided.  It is also interesting that you chose to highlight on some grammatical and type errors within my work, and as for the paris hilton comments about my video, is that really the best you can do?  You appear to not be in approval of my work but surely do you need to stoop this low?  If it was looking like we was heading for warming or a mild winter, do you not think that I would be reporting this instead?

On a more serious note guys, I think I am going to struggle to give you any more information than you already have, as I feel I may have annoyed a lot of important people with my predictions.  Did you know that the met office is run by the ministry of defence, I don't really want to be getting their tails up to be honest. I was simply trying to raise some awareness based on my theories and past predictions, it is really not worth the abuse and hassle just for me and my so called alarmism, I also have a young family to consider at the minute.

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens and who is right, however KATENG I feel you seriously underestimated me.

Prepare for the severe winters to come guys and good luck.