IMPORTANT Q & A - UK Severe Winter Weather Warning 2010-2011/Winters

It really concerns me that I have presented so many FACTS still to be criticised and abused by other weather organisations who can not get their own forecasts correct! We need to prepare for a winter similar to the last at the very least or much much worse as I expect from my research/study results that have a 100% success rate so far.

1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).

2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter.  It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!

FIG.1 (NOAA, 20th Sept 2010)

These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.

Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.

La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.

So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?

I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out.  I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?

Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast.  Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on.  Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario.  There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes.  The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter.  Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.

Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS!  I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE!  I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.

What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned.  As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.

UK Weather Geek