Friday, 11 January 2013

Snow & Cold Update

Remainder of January & February 2013 PDF report now only £3 (50% off) + UK/IRE Spring 2013 Forecast (March, April, and May) here 

**NEW** Snow forecast page for winter 2012/13 here

Snow & Cold Update

Although we have seen a very mild start to January, there is a high-risk scenario that the developing cold spell could become much longer in duration than the models have been anticipating. If this becomes the case as expected in my original long-range winter forecast, we could be looking at a scenario similar to the December 2010 cold spell at the very least (which was the coldest December in 100 years). This also fits in with the wording of my original forecast (issued on the 23rd June 2012), which stated “with the possibility of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES, more probable in the January period of the upcoming winter”. These conditions are also likely to persist into the first third of February at the very least if this proves to be the case. (Original Winter Forecast 12/13 - Issued 23rd June 2012)

We also forecast the coldest December in 100 years before any suggestions from elsewhere (August/September 2010) and featured on BBC One TV for our prediction.
Another interesting article below on our coldest December in 100 years prediction

But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010”

There will also be plenty of widespread and major snow events within this period, but it will also become relatively dry for this forecasting period too (next few weeks and into early February). However, the snowfall (some very heavy in places) is likely to result in lying snow on the ground and lasting accumulations for quite some time under these conditions.

Next week is likely to remain very cold across the country with the development of some severe and widespread frosts throughout the whole week. In terms of snowfall, it is quite probable that next week will bring snowfall to large parts of the country, with some decent accumulations in places, but especially more so in northern and eastern parts to begin with. There is also likely to be some further notable falls of snow and accumulations in parts of central and southern England at times throughout next week too. It will also become exceptionally foggy at times (especially in parts of the Midlands and the south). The freezing fog is also likely to become quite dense and potentially dangerous in these parts, as it struggles to lift and becomes rather persistent throughout the day too.

Our detailed snow risk and final winter forecast (60 days ahead) stated:

The major snow events are likely throughout the period of the 10th to the 20th January (especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts) @
Next update will follow shortly...
Please also see our snow risk forecast page below:
Update added: 11th January 2013 (11:51am)

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