Monday, 31 January 2011

UK Summer and Winter Weather Forecast 2011-12

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 30th January 2011)

Well there has certainly been more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall and rainfall, with well below average temperatures as I originally forecast. I was also able to forecast this with confidence several months in advance, when other highly paid and respected meteorologists was forecasting a mild and dry winter.

November although not officially winter in terms of meteorology, saw widespread heavy snowfall and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK. The average UK temperature also never rose above freezing throughout December. Large icebergs was also a frequent sight in the Irish Sea and Morecambe Bay area towards the latter part of the month, in what turned out to be the coldest December in 100 years. January has been somewhat milder, and the stage the La Niña is at can sometimes influence this much needed and welcomed weather. However, it has certainly not been tropical by any means, more near average. The highlands of Scotland has still been particularly hard hit throughout January as originally forecast, and many other locations have still seen some sort of snowfall. It is also important to remember that winter runs until the 1st March in terms of meteorology, and it may still hold some more surprises for us yet in terms of my original forecast and into spring.

I also clearly stated ample times "the lag effect" of low solar activity and the shift of the gulf stream, in regards to the climate system and weather. Which leads me to my summer and winter outlook for 2011/2012. In regards to how I calculate solar activity and other natural factors, I am able to offer a UK Summer and Winter outlook for 2011-12, with high confidence at such an early stage that I am more than comfortable with. Other meteorologists will say this is impossible, they will however differ to myself in terms of the methods used, and the climate models that they choose to use. As I have stated before, I consider solar variability as the major cause of climate change. I sincerely hope that my early forecasts will stress the importance for the need to incorporate historical sunspot data into long term weather forecasting, and how it corresponds with the ocean.

It is a well known and documented fact that low solar activity is linked with periods of colder temperatures over Europe, which also interestingly includes a rise in wheat prices. Sunspot activity did increase somewhat last year, however in terms of rotation, positioning, and the solar flares produced, I am not convinced that much has changed. Another major cause for concern is the strength of the magnetic fields from these sunspots. Geomagnetic activity is minimal, and the current geomagnetic index is at an all time low. This will result in extra cloud cover and further affect temperatures, with future repurcussions of further prolonged periods of low solar activity, that could see sunspots vanish.

The fact also still remains that we should now be in a solar maximum. So let's take a look at how the sun should look during a solar maximum below. See Fig.1













FIG.1 SOHO/NASA, (2003)

So now let's take a look at the sun below in 2008. See Fig.2













FIG.2 SOHO/NASA, (2008)

Finally let's take a look at the sun below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.3 SOHO/NASA, (2011)

This extended period of low solar activity has now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.
 
I can also not stress the importance of the gulf stream shift enough than I already have, in terms of the amount of heat that it transfers to the UK. So let's now take a look at some comparable real time satellite data below, in relation to the horizontal current in 2009 and 2010. See Fig.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.4 NOAA, (2009 & 2010)

Now let's take a look at at the horizontal current data below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.5










FIG.5 NOAA, (2011)

This has also now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.

 
Summer 2011

Based on the factors I have covered, it would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the lag effect of the gulf stream shift to couple this. However, I also feel that the La Niña will largely influence the UK summer, in terms of how it will affect the jet stream.

WARNING!
This could lead to torrential downpours and severe flooding

So it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year.


Winter 2011-2012

Based on the natural factors that I have covered, it would also be adequate to suggest well below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the dire lag effects of the gulf stream shift couple this, especially if nothing improves soon. The La Niña should also continue to establish itself further as expected, and once again in terms of how it will influence the jet stream. We could therefore see widespread heavy snowfall once again, for the first part of winter at the very least. This would result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and should prove to be the worst of them all.

WARNING!
Widespread heavy snowfall and well below average temperatures that should see records broken.

I will update the outlooks as and when required, in regards to any other natural factors or changes that may need consideration in my forecasts.

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

92 comments:

  1. good posting friend. so possible floods in summer with no indian summer and another terrible winter. any more snow due this year?

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  2. congratsy on the winter forecast. im taking it that this must causing our problems in the US also? We have never seen so much snow before

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  3. Is their any change or an update to this now that three months have passed since published?

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  4. Looking at the current weather the report could all be rubbish!!!!!!!

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  5. oh thats another sh*t summer for us Brits then :( and foreigners wonder what makes us so miserable...

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  6. I live in north West Scotland and the winter we had was loads of ice, snow,the same with the year before..Well atleast I know our summer is gonna be poor again..Thanks for your predictions :) x

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  7. Hello
    Found your conclusions very interesting. Any thoughts about the summer 2011 in Italy? Thank you.

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  8. It will be very interesting to see how the UK Summer actually pans out, I have Bookmarked this along with the recent NetWeather Summer forecast & see who is right/wrong.

    The NW summer forecast is the complete opposite as they & some others are saying that June, July & August will be very hot - possibly breaking the records & hotter than the summer of 76 !

    Not much difference then :--)

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  9. hoping that we get plenty of snow this winter...nothing to beat a good cold harsh winter..lets you know that you alive...please let it be a harsh cold winter in the uk.

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  10. Hello
    Very interesting report is the prediction still the same as we are now into june?

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  11. Very interesting news. Are there any further updates? I have read elsewhere (not met office lol) that June/July will be flash floods like you predicted but August to be warm and sunny? What do you think? I love the snow we've been getting but can see the problems for the older generation. The Government should act now! Winter tyres this year then!

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  12. Is the UK ever going to see a hot dry summer again? I wouldn't be at all surprised if the answer is no. I've actually lost count of the consecutive poor summers we've had in this country.

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  13. You've just made my day!


    Can't wait for winter now!

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  14. Very interesting predictions. I too wouldn't mind the snow if I wasn't so worried every winter about getting to work. In my 60s and desperately need to keep my job. Have resorted to taking just the odd day holiday here and there in Summer and saving most annual leave for winter. I look forward to your update. Will it be soon? Thank you.

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  15. Oh well, time to move abroad then!!!!!

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  16. yay so excited for another cold winter!! it would be nice for mid year update.

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  17. So far, so true, about the grey summer skies and torrential downpours... had the worst thunderstorm imaginable here in LONDON yesterday, lightning at ground level!!!

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  18. All makes sense to me. I live in highland Scotland, it is July and it is pouring rain outside. It has been raining for nearly two days solid and I suspect flooding is on the cards (As predicted here). Take notice of what this guys is saying, at least those of you that live in the UK as this is the country this forecast is aimed at......Snow is on the way.....some say as early as October......be ready for it

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  19. I live in the North East of England, while April was dry since then we have had rain just about every day, it appears to be remarkably accurate. A mid year update would be greatly appreciated. Tank you or your work.

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  20. If the last three days is anything to go by then: 2011 "So it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year". You're absolutely right!!!! Ironically, the melting ice gaps have perhaps caused the last 2 winters to be so cold. I will not be surprised at all if the winter of 2011/2012 will be the worst on record.

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  21. I live in the East of England and the initial summer (April into May) was very pleasant and dry, very dry in fact. Generally, Southern England's summer has been overall dry, had a couple of days exceeding 30'c but since late June, it has been very disappointing, dull, grey, wet (but not extremely). Overall I can say our summer is somewhat disappointing, and I notice that we usually have an 'early summer' during April then a disappointing summer from June to July and if we're lucky, a warm late summer in late August. What interests me is our switch into Autumn/Winter. We have a typical cool/wet/windy autumn with sunny interludes but it's our winters that are getting more severe, we seem to be 'locked' with high pressure from November into December with nagging northerly/easterly winds that have, over the years, become more persistent... I fear the Gulf Stream and it's warm tropical waters and moisture is dwindling?

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  22. something really is happening were all in the firing line now, europe is most likely slip in to its own mini ice age. i live in Kent East of London we had up to 3 foot of snow dats normal for us in this day and age.

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  23. This is definitely worth a bookmark. 1st Aug tomorrow and grey skies the norm. It not even been the rain that's the problem, it's the grey skies - awful for your state of mind. I would love for the seasons to be definitive. Bitterly cold winter and boiling hot summers and differing amounts of what ever in between. V. accurate so far well done.

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  24. I live in centre of Scotland. Up till now it's accurately grey sky and even today is still raining outside..what a poor summer this year.

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  25. any news about winter 2011/2012?

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  26. Spot on, hope u get winter wrong tho

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  27. yeah its going to be freezing! again..lol

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  28. Forecast for this winter should firm up and be clearer by late September.

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  29. Just searched Google for an explanation of the August weather we're having and found this site. Unbelievably accurate! I'm concerned about a cold winter as I've recently moved to a remote rural location with no heating. Thanks to this forecast I'm lining the chimney, renewing loft insulation and will be stocking up on food and grit! I just wish that general forecasters would wake up to what's happening.

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  30. like the theory...just not the conclusion.....I cant wait to freeze again this winter!! :(

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  31. considering you're far more accurate than the met office, is there any chance you could go through in detail how you managed to predict the weather for these seasons and if possible add some more detail to winter's forecast
    thanks

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  32. really looking forward to all this snow forecast

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  33. Looks like you were correct with the summer forecast, it has done nothing but rain in scotland! Bet your winter on eis correct too! well done.

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  34. how very accurate it absolutley down poured yesterday 26 august ,and now is slightly sunny again 27 august,august generally slows down in heat before september ,except on the rare occassions of indian summers etc,but our winters have come in earlier and earlier,and winters are back to what i remember from a kid it's so nice to see and i don't think we will see the end of it yet. weather does obviousley goes in cycles has of past snow falls and warmer spells and what goes up in heat must go down and vice versa,i love british weather for for being unpridictable it makes every day different

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  35. OMG! Winter 3/4 of the year....Fabulous :(

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  36. your right so far , bring on the snow

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  37. i am from Edinburgh Scotland and you are totally right about the summer weather it has been absolutely terrible wet, storms, heavy downpours and strong winds. you could also be right about the winter because each winter the past 2-3 years has got worse and worse so bring on the snow SCOTLAND !!!!

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  38. i'm from glastonbury in somerset uk we had a lovely spring but not so good a summer so your right there but will we get snow???

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  39. You sound very sure of yourself and so far i cannot see any errors in your forecasts. I can safely say that i will from now on follow your predictions. I live in northampton and the worst of the weather always misses us as we are in a huge ditch! Please Please Please update your website as soon as you predict more weather, and personally i think you should consider opening your own weather website with all your predictions and the evidence you have to support your unusual early, yet correct predictions.
    Elliott.

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  40. So very interesting we all need to prepare ourselves. I think we should buy that wood burner we have been talking about and stock up the pantry!!

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  41. could you tell me when you expect it to snow thanx janice from edinburgh

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  42. Lots of snow over winter! The frost I hate, but personally the snow makes the winter feel great.

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  43. has there been any change to the winter forecast? as you said you would update if natural factors were to make any changes.

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  44. I Live on the East coast of Linclonshire, we had like many in the Uk a Bleak winter last year, i am involved with Winter Maintenance operations and my bosses think i am joking when i read to them the predictions from this website, this year they are asking me if i know what the predictions are, i do believe after the last few winters they are now begining to take these predictions more seriously, lets just hope you are wrong for winter 2011/2012 as we are still not fully prepared for another severe winter, my gut feeling tells me you are gotng to be spot on again, lets just hope we can cope with yet another cold one. looking forward to your next update.

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  45. I need to get new boots

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  46. Great commentary and forecast - very accurate for this year!! Any commments on Spring 2012 weather forecast for Europe?

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  47. Sorry - forgot to add, does this forecast apply to Europe (specifically south of Spain) as well?

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  48. Yeah keep it up man , seems 9/10 accurate where as MSM are only 50%

    I agree though, this winter may prove to be "the big one"

    :)
    You are a smart chap! I'll give you that... most people got their heads in the sand

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  49. Spot on so far, look forward to seeing if u get the winter forecast right as I have told many people your predictions.I live in the far north of Ireland so I'm well used to cold winters but none as bad as the last 3 years and your saying this one is going to break all records better get the boots out lol!!

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  50. I live in noirth yorkshire,a little town called high bentham,are we going to get a lot of snow?last year we didnt get much but was -14 and the snow we got froze and was here a long time

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  51. I have long believed that our sun is a variable star; based on sunspot and other cycles and this will undoubtedly influence the climate engine it drives. It is good to read some climate sense for a change. John, Hereford.

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  52. Walked through the park in cheltenham today.. Grey sky, drizzle, strong breeze & absolutely freezing cold even with coat on was shivering. Squirrels racing about seemingly in a rush, trees going reds & browns, lots of crisp rustling leaves all over the ground. Saw jays & crows very noisy. felt more like late october to me. I believe the warnings.. this winter will come very early and its going to be brutally cold.

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  53. At last a forecast on the ball. Get ready for a bitter winter by the sounds of it, youve been spot on so far, Marc.. Sheffield

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  54. spot on my freind,this is going to be the worst for a long time.the starlings ignored our berry trees again this year.in thirty five years they have only left them three times 77,10, and 2011,and we havent got a cat ....

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  55. let,s get ready for winter ye ha

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  56. look at the temps last week end to this week end they are a third this week end.....30 to 10. if this happens again its 10 to 3 etc and its only OCT.
    I am concerned that if we get cloud cover during the summer time that the earth can not absorb the energy it should thus it does not release it during the winter as protection. Look at our coordinates on the globe we are heavily protected against the winters of 52 deg latitude.... Canada and Russia....if the energy is not absorbed then it can not be released and the trade wind cease or shift to the south and then we are exposed....At the moment it may only be the La Nina that is saving the cold pre Christmas from becoming a post Christmas cold spell that lasts until May....this is the norm...we are just protected.

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  57. Ive been paying some attention to all this talk related to freaky weather, global warming,earth quakes, flooding, volcanic activity, galactic alignment, earth axis disruption etc etc.
    I think the writer is right, the weather has taken a turn for the worst and will continue to do so at an accelerated rate. The carbon dioxide into the atmosphere theory and all the ozone depletion excuses have kept people captivated long enough and as per, they soon lose interest. Weather and climate are just part of a bigger picture.The world is on the verge of financial meltdown yet people go about their every day business as usual?. The world is preparing for something and that costs money..
    If you had prior knowledge of some destructive event, how would you prepare? You would prepare people by giving them the knowledge required to help themselves.
    Unless the situation was on a global scale. in which case, you would deflect peoples attention, introduce a million theories and keep them preoccupied with proportionally acceptable situations and topics such as `the weather`..

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  58. After hearing all the gossip about the harsh winter we are to expect I looked at your report and it confirmed it for me so we shall see if it is all accurate.

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  59. is there anything more beautiful than seeing snow fall. loved it as a kid and still do at 60. roll on the next harsh winter.

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  60. well I live in edinburgh (lovely city) and our summer that just passed was wet, stormy, cloudy and wet. It was also said it was the coldest summer in 15 years and I do believe that your winter forecast is right. I would like to see an update soon as it is october 19. From anonymous

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  61. yay snow i hope it comes early am ready for it this year

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  62. I KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WINTER FORECAST AS I LOVE WHITE WINTERS HOWEVER I KEEP SEEING LOADS OF CONFLICTING WEATHER FORECSATS, CAN SOMEBODY PLEASE TELL ME WHY THIS IS

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  63. i live in falkirk, central scotland and this summer forecast is absoloutley correct, rain rain rain is all it was ! could you post a detailed forecast for scotlands 2011-2012 winter please, i want it to snow so bad!

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  64. Im ready for winter too, got winter tyres!

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  65. hi just wonted to know weather to except bad weather over cornwall this winter

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  66. Many people I know working in primary support functions have been told to expect a prolonged snowy period, they have been asked to make sure that they have provisions enough for at least 1 week. Including water... Get prepared especially after seeing the 32" of snow in America today. It was not predicted that long in advance. Remember we only have 3 days worth of food in the shops and if the transport is affected to any degree they will not be able to re-stock. Get snow socks for you car and get decent cold weather gear...

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  67. hi this summer prediction was the best ive seen it was totally correct yeeha :P I live in north-east England and i wondered if it going to be a bad winter again around this area ????? I do hope so :P snow=:)please email me prediction at matty_2k5@msn.com thanks and keep on predicting :)

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  68. Just seen news reports of heavy snow north west New York, are we gonna get any of that as we usually get tail of any US bad weather? I would love to see same/more snow as last year. (I live in Wiltshire)

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  69. Hi i live next to London UK
    how do u think guyz will it snow this year 2011-12

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  70. i live in ireland and we had the worst floods here in dublin the 24th of october very scary and a very very poor summer like u predicted

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  71. Bring on the snow.
    Canny wait for the snow. Love it

    An update to the predictions would be nice.

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  72. Agree with the post above, an update would be great please.

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  73. I live in south east england and so far this year your predictions have been right. Will we get more snow this winter than we did last year ? England hardly coped with it last year so whats gunna happen this year i wonder.. the first bit of snow we had last year put the south east pupulic transport to a near enough stand still so im guessing we can expect the hole contry to come to a total hult for the snowy months. please update the site asap so everyone around the country can get prepared for what ever the winter months might bring.. i dont wont the country to be in the same state as it was last winter. many thanks :)

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  74. i live in central scotland whens the snow comeing and are we going to get it back

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  75. The updates are on the blog Archive here is the latest one
    http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/2011/11/will-it-snow.html

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  76. Hi
    Very impressed with your predictions, but could we please have an update as we are now midway through November.

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  77. Snow has fallen in the highland and all hills above 700 meters but due to the unusually mild november tempature it has melted away. I looked a a next few days forecast and snow is supposed to fall in the next 3 days over the highlands. I predict a snowy winter seen as the summer was the coldest summer in 15 years. Last week it was -1 in edinburgh which brought frost the first this year.

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  78. Hi, going away for christmas this year and back in the new year. An update would be nice so i can pack my hand luggage for a long delay in the airport if recommended......

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  79. So I suppose the question we all want answered is are we in for a white Christmas.. I leave in the far north of Ireland and we've had one 2 years in a row could there be a third. would love it if we get 1 this year too ..Fingers crossed

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  80. I live in glasgow and i just baught a RC 4x4 and i wanna use it in snow

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  81. An update is available if you scroll to the bottom of the page and click on "newer post", keep going until you reach the most recent blog. Took me a while to work it out so don't be embarrassed!!!

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  82. Hi, ever since last November, I've followed your predictions on Exacta Weather and also on here, and without splitting hairs, on averages, your forecasts were correct. But, being a keen amateur meteorologist myself, have noticed that the 300hPa Winds (the Jet Stream) has been able to walk all over the UK during November, with a general pressure of Low pressure to the west and High pressure to the East. With no real block in place, we've generally had a suction of air from the south, because of the nature of the Jet Stream. Now late November, a return of the norm and westerlies has taken charge, but I'm really keen to know if and when a sustained period of cold air will be able to take charge, with this persistent lack of stability above our heads. The Greenland high is struggling to build over the Atlantic, will it be able to build by mid-December? Please give me your predictions on this matter, I really would like some decent snowfall, thanks :)

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  83. Finally a good forecaster! But my only problem was that you didn't say WHEN it's going to snow. Do you know so we can be prepared?

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  84. An update can be good so i can pack my hand luggage for any extended delay with the airport if recommended
    What can we do when we have many boring free time? How about try to get access to the online games? When we talk about the game, we need to talk about the WOW Gold. As the WOW is the world's most famous online game,all of us knows that we have to get the Cheap RS Gold to save money !

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  85. The weather is up and down,I have never seen it so bad before,something is going on with the world,it is going through a massive change, one we have never witnessed before now,we are seeing it in black and white and we all choose to turn our backs on it,the weather was always the first indication something is wrong,I read your predictions and most of it was true,so what is 2012 year going to be ?

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  86. Hi
    I Keep an eye on your predictions to see what weather is in store.I have not seen much snow at all in cental England so far and wonder if we will? Could we have an update please.
    Many thanks Paul

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  87. will it snow on east of scotland (fife) in january or febuary plz let it snow tell me what u think yes or no

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  88. will it snow on the east of scotland (fife)in january and febuary tell me below yes or no plz let it snow

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  89. What's July 2012 going to be like PLEASE?

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  90. Can we have summer weather in May 2012 for the UK please?

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  91. We haven't had a decent Summer since 2007. I recall last Spring was also wet and cold, though not as bad as 2012 is panning out. Your spot on about it being solar activity that's the biggest influence on Earth's climate. Global warming is just another tax grab.

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  92. You have confirmed what I have been thinking for a long time about our climate. What is the outlook for 2012/2013. Should I consider emigrating to somewhere that actually gets a summer?

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