UK Weather Forecast – May 2012
As we head into May and the final part of spring, the picture is set to remain relatively cool for the time of the year. There will also be some further wintry showers of sleet and snow at times, especially across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England. There will, however, also be some periods of warmer and pleasant weather at times, but these are likely to be relatively short-lived in nature. Any periods of warmer and milder weather are more likely to be varied in terms of location throughout the month, whist also becoming confined to a certain part of the country. Basically, they are unlikely to become extensive and prolonged across most parts.
The temperature for the May period as a whole is therefore, likely to be near or below-average. The Central England Temperature (CET) for April also currently resides at an abysmal -0.5C below-average. A likely continuation of this pattern as we progress throughout the final part of spring, will mean my original hypothesis of a near or below-average spring in terms of temperature was just about right. This comes after the third warmest March on record, when others were forecasting an above-average spring due to the conditions being experienced at the time. Others were also suggesting nothing as they don't forecast this far ahead.
I stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:
“Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too”
It is also likely to be relatively dry in terms of rainfall amounts throughout the May period too. However, drought-stricken southern and eastern parts will experience some much needed and heavy rainfall at times. This will unfortunately fail to ease the drought concerns in these parts as we head into the start of the meteorological summer.
I also stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:
“March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter”
“The rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole”
My original hypothesis of near or below-average rainfall amounts/drought fears for the spring period will also prove to be just about right, if the remainder of my spring forecast balances out as expected.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.