Friday, 3 August 2012

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The summer to date has been largely dominated by low pressure due to a displacement of the jet stream. In Layman's terms, this has allowed some extremely wet and unusually windy weather to hamper many parts of the country over a prolonged period of time throughout this summer. 

The following news article from the start of summer also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.
(Daily Express – Friday 15th June 2012 here)

There has also been a large number of flooding events across the country throughout this summer too. The exact timing for the first of these major flooding events was slightly out by a few weeks in terms of my original long range summer forecast. However, we must allow for some standard deviations in weather forecasting and consider that this statement was originally made in February. The forecasting suggestions of flooding from the later part of July onwards still hold some validity, due to some further heavy and potentially thundery downpours that are likely to develop in places over the coming weeks. However, I did manage to recognise the potential for some of these flooding events to arrive earlier and highlighted on this within my weekly and monthly forecasts (also see Floods, Floods & More Floods – Issued 29th June 2012 here).

The following news article also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned heavy rain and the risk of severe flooding would continue into next week. (Daily Express – Saturday 30th June 2012 here)

August also looks like repeating a similar trend, for the most part, although a major pattern change to warmer and drier weather for many is still possible in the later part of this month and into September. However, forecasting confidence has only ever been of medium range for this pattern shift to occur. The alternative and less likely scenario is for a continuation of the cooler and unsettled pattern with a few nice days thrown in here and there until early September. If this pattern shift does occur as my original summer forecast issued in February suggests, then many parts of the country can look forward to a decent run of prolonged sunny spells and very warm temperatures. It may even turn extremely warm in the southern half of the country at times. The August Central England Temperature (CET) is also more probable to come in at more near or possibly above average if this shift occurs too.

Regardless of a possible pattern change to drier and warmer later in the month, a major point is that we have still experienced another cool and exceptionally wet summer as a whole. Another summer of this magnitude is something that I have emphasised on strongly since very early this year. To date, June and July have been exceptionally wet, but they have also been rather cool too. The mean CET was -0.6 below average for June, and -0.5 below average for July. Now I often refer to the CET, as it is a key indicator of climate change. Regardless of those who say it only covers a small area (usually the warmists during cooler summers and winters); the fact still remains that this is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (over 350 years old). The CET is also a statistically useful indicator for a much wider area, as it can be applicable as an agent for northern hemisphere temperatures too.

I also stated in my original summer forecast issued in February that:

If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years (27th February 2012).

I also stated in the same forecast that:

I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters (27th February 2012).

My main concern lies with my forecasting parameters, which suggest that cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters will become the norm for us now, not all of them, but the vast majority of them. We must also consider other important factors such as reduced growing seasons and the problems this will create for agriculture, for which we will need to start making adaptations for.

All of these statements was made by myself, when Royal weather experts and many other forecasters were suggesting a summer of drought and scorching temperatures. The last of the hosepipe bans were also lifted recently too. These are also the same forecasting parameters that have been used within the production of the long range 2012/13 winter weather forecast.

Original Summer Forecast – Issued 27th February 2012 here
  • We are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole
  • I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer
Start of Meteorological Summer + June – Issued 22nd May 2012 here
  • I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for June
Rest of Summer - Issued June 14th 2012 here

  • The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country.
July + Major Flooding UK – Issued 20th June 2012 here
  • I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for July
August + Olympics Forecast – Issued 20th July 2012 here

UK Winter 2012/13 Forecast - 3 page PDF report (Dec,Jan,Feb) available here

1 comment:

  1. When will the winter forecast become available?