Well in answer to all the questions regarding Joe Bastardi's UK winter forecast, yes he is well respected and that is his opinion and you also have mine, we will see who is right but at this present moment in time I see it as impossible that we will have a mild winter. The low sunspot activity, the behaviour of the gulf stream, and the La Nina should override any other factors, my forecast does therefore not change for a severe winter that will at the very least be similar to last (and that was bad enough) or much worse, with a good chance of heavy snowfall!
Hi WeatherGeek. With the release of Joe Bastadi's UK forecast does this knock your confidence slightly? Joe seems to be a reliable source when it comes to long term forecasts..... I personally agree with you in regards to it being a severe winter ahead however there does seem to be a pretty even divide on the net over whether it will be mild or severe....
I have been reading all of these posts with great interest over the past few days. All of Weathergeek's theories sound very plausible and likely, but then there are major forecast stations and sites saying that it is going to be milder than last year - it really is hard to know what to believe - but I suppose it does no harm to plan for the worst. I would just love loads of snow, I am too young (29 lol) to remember any major snow in the past, being from N. Ireland, so it would be great to see loads of it!!!
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released:....... Hi new guy here just saw Joe's blog Richardc1983 its just a rough out look , but truth be told he has no idea whats going to happen. My reason for this statement is that you can read on his blog that he's done no research on the weather patern for the u.k etc and he's just speculating , so until he does a full report and some research you just have to wait and see. I think weathergeek will be spot on this year in regards to winter 2010/2011 , for those who like a white x-mas like myself I can't see it dumping it down in the south or the southeast but I hope I'm wrong . I would think the northern part will stand a better chance then us down here in the south , but let's hope I'm wrong theres nothing like a white covering of snow all over the place.
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. "
How pants is that!!!
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Put it this way, I'm going to be following YOU a lot more closely since discovering this website. My gut feeling as a non-meteoric person is a very cold, very snowy winter, and if your last year's prediction is anything to go by I think you're going to be right again this year.
ReplyDeleteThey're already predicting snow next week for scotland hills! So I doubt its going to get any better weatherwise!
As for the global warming lot, they seem to have kept their heads down for a while now haven't they.
I'm a non-believer of the CO2 causes global warming trash. Too much evidence out there showing the complete opposite.
Keep up the good hard work you do, and don't let some petty comments from earlier in your blog knock you back!
Andy
I found this website by wandering about Google searching for: winter 2010 2011
ReplyDeleteI wish I had found you before, it seems you have a pretty impressive track record and althrough I do not understand a fraction of what you do, I have LONG thought the correlation between sunspot activity and weather was massively undervalued.
I will have a look and see what you reckoning is for the rest of the UK winter, you are certainly more creditworthy than the MOD, oops I meant "Met Office" forecasts.
Regards - and thanks - Mark
Does anyone have the latest status of the Landscheidt Grand Minimum generating this extended La Nina weather? Can we expect next winter’s severe weather anomalies to be as bad or even worse? How might it affect spring’s planting and summer’s crop production? The answers to these questions will go a long way toward helping us know where food prices are headed later this year. They’re already not looking good.
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