Winter 2017/18 Review + Snow/Cold & Spring/Summer 2018
The first half of December was much colder than the second half and in the run up to the festive period, and we did clearly state that there was only 2% separating a cold/snowy period and a MAJOR mild period of weather for this given part of the forecast and from over 60+ days in advance of actual occurrence.
In addition to this our snow dates also proved to be of high accuracy in terms of occurrence from 60-90 days ahead for December too (Please see link below for further proof of this):
We also correctly opted for near to below-average temperatures for December overall on this basis and the Mean Central England (CET) just edged ever so slightly above-average at +0.1C
Even though January did still deliver with some alternating cold and snowy periods for when we expected – it was also an exceptionally mild month overall and the Mean CET finished at a quite abnormal +1.5C above-average.
We did note that some transient mild spells would exist from 90-120 days ahead, but we also stated that we didn't expect anything significant to develop in terms of maximum temperatures for January, and this was a notable discrepancy/forecasting error for this section of the original forecast on our behalf.
However, February was still likely to deliver a cold month from Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) on our projections and we also originally and correctly stated that “the Beast from the East would start to feature within this period to deliver some significant wintry blasts and the coldest nights of winter to date” from 120-150 days ahead.
All of the following is also available to view for yourself as PROOF that we did forecast the above and the beast from the east having an impact within this exact period from a massive 120-150 days ahead to our subscribers (within an unchanged forecast – something we strongly value within our ethos).
(Original Winter 17/18 subscribers report from 29th September 2017 available to view in the link BELOW):
In addition to the above long-range winter forecast we also posted the following HIGH CONFIDENCE social media posting on the 21st & 22nd JANUARY to confirm our original projections in reference to a February Freeze/Beast from the East scenario – despite no such indications from any other kind of meteorological sources at the same time.
In addition to this we also had further success with our long range snow dates for February and the Mean CET finished at a rather cold -0.8C below-average for the month as whole.
To conclude; It was a winter of rather changeable mild to cold alternations as we had indicated for December and January in our own words. However, we did underestimate how mild these periods would become in terms of the maximum temperatures, particularly, for the month of January as a whole. In terms of classing it as a cold or mild winter – it would be more fair to class it as something as more down the middle and with a split December, mild January and cold February (neither mild, nor cold overall) + with much more snow than we have seen in previous years (the changes are occurring to our more set weather pattern of dominant cold and snow in the coming years and decades).
Why Has The Late Winter/Spring Snow Been So Bad For 2018 And Why Has There Been So Much?
One thing that our forecasts and updates have consistently compromised of over the years is a future climate dominated by colder conditions and snow, particularly, during the meteorological winter and spring months.
Several feet or more snowdrifts, people being snowed in for days on end, record-breaking snow, record-breaking cold, snow gritters being snowed under - are all part and parcel of Little Ice Age (LIA) circulation patterns and the period of LOW solar activity that we currently CONTINUE to reside within.
A firm REMINDER is needed that this is the FOURTH severe weather event for SNOW/COLD to breach them 100 year or all time records in only EIGHT years (No time speaking climatologically or geologically - literally a blink of the eye).
1. The coldest December in 100 years (December 2010)
2. The equal coldest March on record in 130 years (March 2013)
3. The coldest Easter on record (Easter 2013)
4. The coldest start to March on record (March 2018)
We also foreseen and forecast all of the above weather events in our short and long-range projections and in advance of all conventional/standard meteorologists.
In the long term we can expect additional 100 year+ cold and snow records to be broken! Again - Something we have covered extensively since arriving on the scene in 2009 and we now have 4 x 100 year or all time records broken in terms of snow/cold + multiple decade long or more records at other times.
Unfortunately, this will also impact a dominant pattern of cooler wetter summer periods, but with a compensating impact on the overall intensity of heatwaves at certain times too.
Just to be clear! A Little Ice Age (LIA) weather pattern does NOT mean the end of some extreme warm to hot periods of weather at times in the coming years, but it does place us in era of Winter, Spring and 100 year+ Summer records being smashed for cold, snow, rain and heat.
However, the main emphasis from our extensive research and findings must at present reside with the amount of cold and snow that we are facing in the long term and this transition to a much colder and snowier UK/Ireland climate overall.
In addition to this increased cloud cover, extreme winds and huge low pressure systems will also be very problematic on frequent occasions, and this is something else that has also been covered extensively via our work over the past 9 years.
The recent snow events have been so bad as cold easterly winds have prevailed across our shores to be met by some significant weather systems pushing in from the Atlantic. This is something that we have consistently warned would happen more frequently and despite others stating that our theory behind this was impossible (small minds).
I would now like to think we are at a stage as to where people can gather their own conclusions as to how variable weather can be as a science for the British Isles and that we can't get it right all the time. However, it should be becoming clearer that there is something within our methodology, particularly, for our long-range forecasting and pinpointing events such as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and when key weather events will occur such as snow/heatwaves from very far in advance.
In addition to this we are now also able to give the so-called public service provider (MET OFFICE) a run for their money in terms of short-range weather forecasting – As we have consecutively proven with a high success rate throughout this winter/spring with snow and cold date arrivals.
Met Office Deceives The Public Again! (Must Read)
To emphasise on this further and how we have compared to the UK Met Office and their mass staffing levels of 1500 employees?! We have posted the following very well written and observed article from Paul Homewood below - an independent observer/writer as to how the Met Office have recently deceived the public again and with an accreditation to ourselves for being correct over them.
Part of the article states the following below: (worth reading in full)
It cannot be any clearer. Not only did the MET OFFICE not forecast the extreme cold spell at the end of the month, or the SSW event that led to it, they actually forecast the opposite, a MILDER spell up to MID MARCH.
Moreover, as well as FAILING to forecast the Beast, or even a coldish spell of weather, they also FAILED to predict the cold and snow we have now had twice this month since the Beast.
But by then, this was COMMON KNOWLEDGE amongst meteorologists. The same Star report quotes James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, as saying the oncoming assault of heavy snow and freezing temperatures could plague Britain for the rest of February.
He said: “A barrage of snow events awaits us throughout the rest of this month with the first notable snow events expected next week.
“There is a risk for a total whiteout across the country as a number of major snow events hit our shores, this risk really kicks in at the start of next week.”
It is ironic that, when their (Met Office) 3-Month Outlooks are wrong, they claim they are not “forecasts” at all but mere ranges of probabilities.
What To Watch For Next? (Late March & Early April/Easter)
Again, Something we WILL have forecast before any other conventional/standard/TV meteorologists (Dated 16th March):
UPDATE ADDED: James Madden - 22nd March 2018
We will also be releasing the BRAND NEW ultra long-range weather forecasts for Autumn 2018 & Winter 2018/19 very soon!
(Available by PDF/document delivery to e-mail ONLY – This year/these seasons will be of particular importance to farmers and those who require much further ahead and detailed weather forecasts to help them be better prepared)
http://www.exactaweather.com/subscribers.html (Full Summer 2018 Forecast Ready NOW!)