Thursday, 28 March 2013

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead



Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)


Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:


Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

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