The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The summer to date has been largely dominated by low pressure due to a displacement of the jet stream. In Layman's terms, this has allowed some extremely wet and unusually windy weather to hamper many parts of the country over a prolonged period of time throughout this summer. 

The following news article from the start of summer also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

(Daily Express – Friday 15^th June 2012 here)

There has also been a large number of flooding events across the country throughout this summer too. The exact timing for the first of these major flooding events was slightly out by a few weeks in terms of my original long range summer forecast. However, we must allow for some standard deviations in weather forecasting and consider that this statement was originally made in February. The forecasting suggestions of flooding from the later part of July onwards still hold some validity, due to some further heavy and potentially thundery downpours that are likely to develop in places over the coming weeks. However, I did manage to recognise the potential for some of these flooding events to arrive earlier and highlighted on this within my weekly and monthly forecasts (also see Floods, Floods & More Floods – Issued 29^th June 2012 here).

The following news article also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned heavy rain and the risk of severe flooding would continue into next week. (Daily Express – Saturday 30^th June 2012 here)

BBC News – Floods as torrential rain hits UK (6^th July 2012)

August also looks like repeating a similar trend, for the most part, although a major pattern change to warmer and drier weather for many is still possible in the later part of this month and into September. However, forecasting confidence has only ever been of medium range for this pattern shift to occur. The alternative and less likely scenario is for a continuation of the cooler and unsettled pattern with a few nice days thrown in here and there until early September. If this pattern shift does occur as my original summer forecast issued in February suggests, then many parts of the country can look forward to a decent run of prolonged sunny spells and very warm temperatures. It may even turn extremely warm in the southern half of the country at times. The August Central England Temperature (CET) is also more probable to come in at more near or possibly above average if this shift occurs too.

Regardless of a possible pattern change to drier and warmer later in the month, a major point is that we have still experienced another cool and exceptionally wet summer as a whole. Another summer of this magnitude is something that I have emphasised on strongly since very early this year. To date, June and July have been exceptionally wet, but they have also been rather cool too. The mean CET was -0.6 below average for June, and -0.5 below average for July. Now I often refer to the CET, as it is a key indicator of climate change. Regardless of those who say it only covers a small area (usually the warmists during cooler summers and winters); the fact still remains that this is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (over 350 years old). The CET is also a statistically useful indicator for a much wider area, as it can be applicable as an agent for northern hemisphere temperatures too.

I also stated in my original summer forecast issued in February that:

If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years (27^th February 2012).

I also stated in the same forecast that:

I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters (27^th February 2012).

My main concern lies with my forecasting parameters, which suggest that cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters will become the norm for us now, not all of them, but the vast majority of them. We must also consider other important factors such as reduced growing seasons and the problems this will create for agriculture, for which we will need to start making adaptations for.

All of these statements was made by myself, when Royal weather experts and many other forecasters were suggesting a summer of drought and scorching temperatures. The last of the hosepipe bans were also lifted recently too. These are also the same forecasting parameters that have been used within the production of the long range 2012/13 winter weather forecast.

Original Summer Forecast – Issued 27^th February 2012 here

• We are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole

• I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer

Start of Meteorological Summer + June – Issued 22^nd May 2012 here

• I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for June

Rest of Summer - Issued June 14^th 2012 here

• The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country.

July + Major Flooding UK – Issued 20^th June 2012 here

• I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for July

August + Olympics Forecast – Issued 20^th July 2012 here

UK Winter 2012/13 Forecast - 3 page PDF report (Dec,Jan,Feb) available here

Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012

Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012

As you may or may not be aware via my work and forecasts since 2009, I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters. Please feel free to examine any of my early blog or video entries. This does not necessarily mean that every summer or winter will follow this exact trend, and as a large part of this winter has also quite conclusively proven. However, it does mean that the vast majority of the summer and winters are likely to be this way. The main aim of Exacta Weather has always been to make as many people as possible aware of this transition in weather and climate over the coming years and decades.

 

This period of transition is largely due to major changes in solar activity levels and how this affects major natural factors here on earth. This transitional period is also part of a cyclical and predictable pattern that has occurred many times throughout our earth's history.

 

So let's take sunspots and their importance, for example. Sunspots are dark magnetic regions that are visible on the surface of the solar disc.

 

The amount of solar energy we receive from these sunspots, and the earth directed ejections have an important bearing on a number of major natural factors including: 1. The heating of the stratosphere 2. Atmospheric circulation 3. Ocean circulation 4. Cloud formation

 

Sunspots are also a good indicator of how magnetically active the sun is. The more magnetically active the sun is, the larger and more intense the sunspots are. Solar storms are also generally emitted from areas that surround these sunspots. However, a less magnetically active sun sets off a whole chain reaction of changes to a number of attributes that influence our climate and weather patterns. The sunspots and solar storms become less intense and infrequent when the sun is not as magnetically active. This also allows the cosmic ray flux to increase and hit earth more frequently. The increase in cosmic rays enhances low level cloud coverage and deflects heat back into space, something that occurred during the Maunder Minimum.

 

UV rays are also an equally important attribute when the sun is less magnetically active. Less UV rays are emitted from solar storms when there are less sunspots. A decrease in UV radiation and solar winds hitting the earth's upper atmosphere alter the properties of the stratosphere, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of storm tracks. The amount of solar radiation that we receive also has an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland. I have also extensively reported on all of these factors quite frequently over the past few years.

1 

2 

3

FIG.1 - Near solar maximum in 2001 (NASA/SOHO)

FIG.2 - Galileo sunspots 1612 (Science Museum)

FIG.3 - 27th February 2012 (NASA/SOHO)

 

The point I am trying to illustrate here, is that we are now recording extra solar activity today that we weren't recording several years ago or through the lenses of Galileo's telescope (FIG 1 & 2). Just look at the magnitude of the sunspots from Galileo (FIG.2) 33 years before the Maunder Minimum in comparison to today's sun in (FIG.3). Galileo was simply recording these with his telescope at certain times of the day. Today, we are constantly recording solar storms and sunspots in 3D 'close up and from the side' since the NASA twin satellite launch in 2006. We are now also meant to be heading into a solar maximum and seeing some huge increases in solar activity according to many other sources.

 

However, I have reported many times that solar activity and sunspots are minuscule in comparison to what they should be right now, and in accordance to all NASA's predictions to date in recent years. I have also strongly emphasised that the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will also enhance periods of low solar activity in the present and future solar cycles. We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating.

 

This will also not be counteracted by any so called effects of global warming or CO2 based on my own calculations, and the historical evidence that I have reviewed to date. In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone. This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator (warming) during periods of high solar activity.

 

Summer 2012 outlook

So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole. It would initially appear that another relatively grey and cool summer is on the cards for many. This does not mean that there will be no warm spells whatsoever throughout this summer. However, any warmer spells are likely to offer more in the way of some quite muggy and humid weather at times. I will also report on any viable warm periods of weather for up to two months in advance in my future forecast updates.

 

I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either. If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years. The Milankovitch cycle strongly vindicates that ice will return to parts of the northern hemisphere, once the summers become cool enough. The Milankovitch cycle also predicted this pattern with astounding accuracy in the past, and it also places us at this point in the Milankovitch cycle today.

 

Conclusion

At the very best we are looking at an unsettled to mixed summer for this year. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times. As a whole the temperatures for summer are likely to be near or below average, dependent on which scenario unfolds out of the given two. Rainfall amounts are also likely to be near or above average for the summer as a whole. In terms of the 2012 Olympics and although it does become extremely difficult to forecast for a two-week period this far out in advance, they are also likely to be pretty mixed in terms of the primary location in London. However, as we progress through August and into September, there is the potential for some warm or very warm periods of weather at times.

 

A number of other weather events that have already occurred in other parts of the world this year, also appear to tie in quite well with a number of recent and historical weather observations that I have personally compiled. They also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer. Now although I would prefer to report on the possibility of such events occurring nearer the time, my forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.

 

No Meteorological or climate models have been used in the production of this long range forecast, or any of my long range forecasts that date back over the past three years. They are all made on a number of personal observations that also include: solar activity and historical weather patterns from my own unique collective data. This is why I am able to issue a forecast this far in advance without being limited by what the models are indicating. These are the same methods that have served me pretty well to date and will continue to do so in the future over computer models. This method of forecasting allows me to make a long term judgement on the factors that I consider to be the most important, and what I also consider to be the most reliable in the future for long term weather forecasting.

 

Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.

 

THE WINTER REVIEW WILL BE POSTED ON THE ACCURACY PAGE SHORTLY AFTER 1ST MARCH 2012.

 

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

 

ExactaWeather.com

Published: Monday 27^thFebruary 2012 Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.