My apologies regarding the small delay everyone, but I have been rather busy of late. I am now working with exactaweather.com as one of there UK long range forecasters. Don't worry everyone I am not getting paid a penny, so I will not be changing any of my opinions.
Exacta Weather is a non profit weather organisation consisting of meteorologists from around the world, who share data and research on a voluntary basis like myself. The forecasters and planned forecasters simply have a passion for weather with a background history in the subject, and proven track records in accurate weather forecasting.
I feel this is a huge step in the right direction for me at the present time, especially as I have been largely ignored, even though I have been reporting this winter since very early this year in my blog and research papers. I will still publish to my blog for nostalgic purposes, my main efforts and detailed forecasts will however now be with exacta weather.
As for this winter guys, the gulf stream has not improved and we are still in a minimum solar cycle. Both of these factors will have dire effects on the UK in terms of temperature reductions (solar cycle - global effects). The La Nina continues to ever strengthen and is capable of further temperature reductions (globally). This will also bring more precipitation to the UK in the form of widespread and heavy snowfalls. It is going to be as bad as I have originally forecast with very few and if any mild spells, now let's look at the accuracy of this forecast come March/April 2011.
Feel free to view my exactaweather.com UK long range forecast, or contact me through them.
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
http://www.exactaweather.com/The_Team_-_Contact_Us.html
http://www.exactaweather.com/
J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Monday, 15 November 2010
UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011 - November Update
Thank you for all your comments everyone and your requests for an update. As it stands not much has changed in regards to my winter forecast, I believe the coming weeks and months will truly begin to illustrate what I have been saying.
1. Gulf Stream
It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1). It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers. This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.
Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)
2. La Nina
1. Gulf Stream
It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1). It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers. This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.
Fig 1 (NOAA, 2010)
Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)
2. La Nina
The current La Nina continues to strengthen and is looking more than capable of causing a sharp decline in global temperatures. It is also influential to the UK in terms of changes in global weather patterns as I have previously stated. The UK can therefore expect more precipitation than usual over the coming months, which I suggest we may already be seeing at present and as suggested in my previous blog post dated 21st September 2010. Now couple this with freezing temperatures and the increased cloud cover from low solar activity and it becomes highly plausible that heavy snowfall will also influence this winter.
3. Solar Activity
The FACT still remains that we are still in a minimum when we should actually be in a maximum. Yes sunspot activity has increased this year, but it is important to remember that the sun was blank for over 70% of last year and this will effect this coming winter. This will also have future effects on further prolonged periods of low solar activity. Now couple this low solar activity with the regional effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere. These factors will result in an increased blocking out of sunlight from our already weak sun, which will carry a combined effect in terms of temperature reductions.
I am therefore still currently forecasting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS! The winter of 2011/2012 is still the height of my concerns and could prove even worse than the one we are about to experience right now, due to the lag effect that comes with a number of these processes.
Unfortunately I do feel like I am repeating myself, but as stated nothing much has changed in regards to my winter forecast. It would be fair to state that the situation has actually worsened in terms of the strengthening La Nina and the unimproved behaviour of the gulf stream. I therefore suggest it is time to wrap up and make those last minute preparations before this winter well and truly grips us!
In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months. I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide http://www.worldsnowboardguide.com/news/story/20100930winterprediction.cfm
In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months. I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide http://www.worldsnowboardguide.com/news/story/20100930winterprediction.cfm
I must say a huge thank you to editor Steve Dowle from WSG Media for making this possible. The latest edition of the World Snowboard Guide is also available to purchase online from their website above or at any respectable high street book retailer.
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
Fox News 12 in Oregon use my info including on air TV mention
First of all I owe a huge thank you to Garron Socum from Washington Square in the USA for making this possible. It was his hard work that made this breakthrough possible by reposting my research and work to date, which also included my winter forecast video which appeared on the Fox 12 News website in Oregon, USA.
TV and Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen used the information from my research and actually mentioned it LIVE on air during their TV weather segment on WED 22nd Sept 2010, he also referred to my theory that we may be heading for a Dalton/Maunder Minimum on his website afterwards, of which he stated "both of these are associated with much cooler than normal global weather, but I didn't factor this into my winter outlook either".
I am overjoyed that I have made the news at last, it is however ashame that it had to come from the other side of the world as no UK media source will take me seriously. Still publicity is publicity and even if it only raises some small awareness, I am still very happy to have made the news. Once again I can't thank you enough Garron for making this possible.
J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)
TV and Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen used the information from my research and actually mentioned it LIVE on air during their TV weather segment on WED 22nd Sept 2010, he also referred to my theory that we may be heading for a Dalton/Maunder Minimum on his website afterwards, of which he stated "both of these are associated with much cooler than normal global weather, but I didn't factor this into my winter outlook either".
I am overjoyed that I have made the news at last, it is however ashame that it had to come from the other side of the world as no UK media source will take me seriously. Still publicity is publicity and even if it only raises some small awareness, I am still very happy to have made the news. Once again I can't thank you enough Garron for making this possible.
J.Madden (UK Weather Geek)
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
UK Winter Forecast 2010/2011 Update
I have had a stream of questions in relation to the amount of snowfall that we are likely to receive in the UK this coming winter. As previously stated freezing temperatures will be the main concern, however heavy snowfall is also plausible as another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity. We must also consider the establishing La Nina as this is generally influential to the UK in terms of the change in global weather patterns, locations that tend to be wet will become wetter. We currently experience an ample amount of wet weather in the UK, so it would be adequate to expect even more precipitation. More precipitation during freezing temperatures with the increased cloud cover from low sunspot activity = HEAVY SNOWFALL!
Sunday, 19 September 2010
IMPORTANT Q & A - UK Severe Winter Weather Warning 2010-2011/Winters
It really concerns me that I have presented so many FACTS still to be criticised and abused by other weather organisations who can not get their own forecasts correct! We need to prepare for a winter similar to the last at the very least or much much worse as I expect from my research/study results that have a 100% success rate so far.
1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).
2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter. It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!
These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.
Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.
La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.
So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?
I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out. I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?
Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast. Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on. Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario. There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes. The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter. Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.
Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS! I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE! I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html
I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.
What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned. As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.
UK Weather Geek
1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).
2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter. It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!
FIG.1 (NOAA, 20th Sept 2010)
These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.
Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.
La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.
So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?
I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out. I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?
Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast. Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on. Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario. There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes. The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter. Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.
Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS! I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE! I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html
I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.
What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned. As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.
UK Weather Geek
Thursday, 16 September 2010
UK Winter Forecast 2010/11 Update
Well in answer to all the questions regarding Joe Bastardi's UK winter forecast, yes he is well respected and that is his opinion and you also have mine, we will see who is right but at this present moment in time I see it as impossible that we will have a mild winter. The low sunspot activity, the behaviour of the gulf stream, and the La Nina should override any other factors, my forecast does therefore not change for a severe winter that will at the very least be similar to last (and that was bad enough) or much worse, with a good chance of heavy snowfall!
Hi WeatherGeek. With the release of Joe Bastadi's UK forecast does this knock your confidence slightly? Joe seems to be a reliable source when it comes to long term forecasts..... I personally agree with you in regards to it being a severe winter ahead however there does seem to be a pretty even divide on the net over whether it will be mild or severe....
I have been reading all of these posts with great interest over the past few days. All of Weathergeek's theories sound very plausible and likely, but then there are major forecast stations and sites saying that it is going to be milder than last year - it really is hard to know what to believe - but I suppose it does no harm to plan for the worst. I would just love loads of snow, I am too young (29 lol) to remember any major snow in the past, being from N. Ireland, so it would be great to see loads of it!!!
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released:....... Hi new guy here just saw Joe's blog Richardc1983 its just a rough out look , but truth be told he has no idea whats going to happen. My reason for this statement is that you can read on his blog that he's done no research on the weather patern for the u.k etc and he's just speculating , so until he does a full report and some research you just have to wait and see. I think weathergeek will be spot on this year in regards to winter 2010/2011 , for those who like a white x-mas like myself I can't see it dumping it down in the south or the southeast but I hope I'm wrong . I would think the northern part will stand a better chance then us down here in the south , but let's hope I'm wrong theres nothing like a white covering of snow all over the place.
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. "
How pants is that!!!
Hi WeatherGeek. With the release of Joe Bastadi's UK forecast does this knock your confidence slightly? Joe seems to be a reliable source when it comes to long term forecasts..... I personally agree with you in regards to it being a severe winter ahead however there does seem to be a pretty even divide on the net over whether it will be mild or severe....
I have been reading all of these posts with great interest over the past few days. All of Weathergeek's theories sound very plausible and likely, but then there are major forecast stations and sites saying that it is going to be milder than last year - it really is hard to know what to believe - but I suppose it does no harm to plan for the worst. I would just love loads of snow, I am too young (29 lol) to remember any major snow in the past, being from N. Ireland, so it would be great to see loads of it!!!
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released:....... Hi new guy here just saw Joe's blog Richardc1983 its just a rough out look , but truth be told he has no idea whats going to happen. My reason for this statement is that you can read on his blog that he's done no research on the weather patern for the u.k etc and he's just speculating , so until he does a full report and some research you just have to wait and see. I think weathergeek will be spot on this year in regards to winter 2010/2011 , for those who like a white x-mas like myself I can't see it dumping it down in the south or the southeast but I hope I'm wrong . I would think the northern part will stand a better chance then us down here in the south , but let's hope I'm wrong theres nothing like a white covering of snow all over the place.
Joe Bastardi's winter blog released: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. "
How pants is that!!!
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