UK Winter Weather Forecast 2010/2011 - November Update

Thank you for all your comments everyone and your requests for an update.  As it stands not much has changed in regards to my winter forecast, I believe the coming weeks and months will truly begin to illustrate what I have been saying.

1. Gulf Stream

It is still evident to see from real time satellite data a large reduction of warm water reaching the UK & Northern Europe in comparison to previous years (see fig.1).  It is still also evident to see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current (see fig.2), the main engine that drives the gulf stream.  As I have stated previously this is what prevents the UK from cold winters due to the latitude it lies on and the central heating effect that the gulf stream offers.  This will without doubt effect this coming winter and future winters of the UK.

Fig 1 (NOAA, 2010)

Fig 2 (NOAA, 2010)

2. La Nina

The current La Nina continues to strengthen and is looking more than capable of causing a sharp decline in global temperatures.  It is also influential to the UK in terms of changes in global weather patterns as I have previously stated.  The UK can therefore expect more precipitation than usual over the coming months, which I suggest we may already be seeing at present and as suggested in my previous blog post dated 21st September 2010.  Now couple this with freezing temperatures and the increased cloud cover from low solar activity and it becomes highly plausible that heavy snowfall will also influence this winter.

3. Solar Activity

The FACT still remains that we are still in a minimum when we should actually be in a maximum.  Yes sunspot activity has increased this year, but it is important to remember that the sun was blank for over 70% of last year and this will effect this coming winter.  This will also have future effects on further prolonged periods of low solar activity.  Now couple this low solar activity with the regional effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere.  These factors will result in an increased blocking out of sunlight from our already weak sun, which will carry a combined effect in terms of temperature reductions.

I am therefore still currently forecasting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!  The winter of 2011/2012 is still the height of my concerns and could prove even worse than the one we are about to experience right now, due to the lag effect that comes with a number of these processes.

Unfortunately I do feel like I am repeating myself, but as stated nothing much has changed in regards to my winter forecast.  It would be fair to state that the situation has actually worsened in terms of the strengthening La Nina and the unimproved behaviour of the gulf stream.  I therefore suggest it is time to wrap up and make those last minute preparations before this winter well and truly grips us!


In terms of publicity and raising vital awareness I am happy to say that things have actually picked up, the youtube video has had over 16,000 views to date and my blog has received over 50,000 visitors in recent months.  I also received a news story publication in the highly respectable World Snowboard Guide http://www.worldsnowboardguide.com/news/story/20100930winterprediction.cfm

I must say a huge thank you to editor Steve Dowle from WSG Media for making this possible.  The latest edition of the World Snowboard Guide is also available to purchase online from their website above or at any respectable high street book retailer.

IMPORTANT Q & A - UK Severe Winter Weather Warning 2010-2011/Winters

It really concerns me that I have presented so many FACTS still to be criticised and abused by other weather organisations who can not get their own forecasts correct! We need to prepare for a winter similar to the last at the very least or much much worse as I expect from my research/study results that have a 100% success rate so far.

1. Yes the number of spotless days has increased in terms of sunspot activity this year but the FACTS still remain that we are still in a minimum when we should be in a maximum, this has future effects on further low solar activity (which means more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity).

2. The gulf stream has only been waining in recent years, there has never been activity seen like this year before. Yes sometimes there are natural fluctuations here and there but this has gone on for a much more prolonged period than usual with very large anomalies (like nothing we have ever seen before). It is evident to see from real time satellite data (See fig.1) the lack of warm water from the gulf stream/North Atlantic current reaching the UK or Northern Europe, in FACT the whole system inc the thermohaline circulation is looking a major cause for concern. This is what prevents us from much colder conditions due to the central heating effect it has on the UK, yes it will have a lag effect that will hit us harder next year as I have always stated, but the fact still remains that the whole system has been under threat for years and this year has proved fatal in terms of what has happened and will effect our winter.  It is also evident to still see a clear breakage in the gulf loop current in the bottom left hand corner (see fig.1), the main engine that drives the gulf stream. I am also open to suggestions that the BP oil spill may have also contributed to this somewhat already weak system, in fact this was a basic physics experiment that we undertook back at university and the oil did have major effects on boundary layers of the warm water stream. Either way it is the effects that we are interested in, not the cause!

FIG.1 (NOAA, 20th Sept 2010)

These are the two biggest factors that will influence our climate and to be honest these are big enough by themselves, there are however others.

Volcanoes; the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was stated as not big enough to have a GLOBAL effect by a highly respected meteorological institue in Norway. The FACT still remains that the UK is very close to Iceland and this will have REGIONAL effects, it is also FACT that some ash and sulfur will remain within the atmosphere for the next 12 months at least, however minimal the sulfur content is considered by others. God help us if another volcano decides to blow its top especially Katla which generally follows Eyjafjallajökull. Couple the current activity this with the extra space debris accumulated from the shrinking of the earth's upper atmosphere which will also block out further sunlight (FACT) however miniscule it may be have been considered before or after the reported shrinkage.

La Nina; the La Nina is currently ongoing and still establishing itself and the immediate signs are not very welcoming, this will soon transition to the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to last the duration of the 2010-11 UK winter in a recent ENSO alert from the NOAA that issued a La Nina advisory. This is also hugely influential on cooling large masses of water.

So there we have it, our major driver of all climate and weather (THE SUN) is in a period of such low activity that scientists can not explain, all the predicitions to date including NASA's are wrong! This will result in a major cooling of our planet (FACT), it is also (FACT) that we can expect many more spotless days and further prolonged periods of low solar activity due to it's current condition. The gulf stream/North Atlantic current/thermohaline circulation is a major cause for concern (FACT), the warm water from this acts as the UK central heating system (FACT), now what happens if you have a house that suddenly loses it's central heating through the months of winter?

I am not trying to scare anyone, I am simply trying to raise awareness and get my scientific theory out.  I had one person ask me last week "why is awareness key"?

Well awareness is key my friend as it is FACT that vulnerable people suffer/die during extended periods of cold weather, an example of this could be one of my elderley relatives who was took by surprise last year even though I told him it was going to be a severe winter and to prepare as he lives a fair distance from us, he still took notice of the met office mild winter forecast.  Do you know he spent three-four weeks indoors due to the heavy snowfall and cold weather and could not really afford to put his central heating on.  Another area in terms of awareness is people with children or young familys such as myself, did you know we nearly run out of gas last winter in the UK, I am not sure how me and my young family would cope without gas, it will only take a winter slightly worse than the latter to trigger this scenario.  There is also the increase in accidents in terms of cars and children/elderley falling which puts severe pressure on our already pressed NHS. The relative I mentioned earlier unfortunately passed away earlier this year but they also fell unexpectingly due to the cold weather conditions and hurt himself on his own doorstep quite badly. Having said that I really am hoping that my predicition of a winter similar to last actually comes true, I do not really want anybody to have to suffer inc myself from any of the above due to an even more severe winter than the last, I however am very concerned that it will be worse especially in regards to the year after due to the lag effect from these processes.  The lag effect from the gulf stream may well hit us harder next year but we will still see an effect this year, we are also going to experience the lag effect from the low solar activity in previous years this coming winter.  Freezing temperatures will be the main issue, however heavy snowfall could also be another major issue that we are facing due to the extra cloud cover and cooling that is generally produced during low solar activity.

Not everyone and as it appears all weather organisations will agree with me about these FACTS!  I do understand this, but you must remember that they are also employed to prevent panic. It could also be suggested that this disproves any global warming work that they have done and received funding for, I have given you all of my research and theories for FREE!  I can't even get one newspaper to take me seriously, yet I see them publishing articles from earlier this year about "THE HOTTEST UK SUMMER EVER PREDICTS POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

I am however slighlty embarrassed about any grammatical errors that I have made throughout my posts etc, which the weather organisations have picked up on and mentioned to me time and time again to try and make me feel inadequate, this is simply down to typo errors or trying to type as much as I could in a short space of time, the science is however theoretically sound, so sorry about that everyone.

What really concerns me is the fact that these weather organistations or paid meteorologists have the time and effort that they are actually making with me to point out such things as grammatical errors, surely they have other important areas of research to be getting on with, especially as there is a lot of interesting things happening right now in regards to everything I have mentioned.  As is stands it would be more than adequate to expect further severe winters and poor summers over the coming years, of which I will keep you all posted on.

UK Weather Geek

UK Winter Weather Warning - 2010/2011 Forecast

or visit youtube @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

Show this everyone you know.

UK Winter Forecast Update 2010/11

I have been overwhelmed with the recent activity and interest that my work has been receiving, there are just a few facts that I need to clear up so everyone is fully aware of the current situation as a whole.

I am currently prediciting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!

1. The Gulf Stream

The gulf stream has shown signs of waining in recent years which can alter climate in the UK and Northern Europe, however this summer has shown an unusual amount of anomalies as highlighted in my previous posts.  The data screen below is part of an update that still shows a clear breakage in the gulf loop, the main engine that drives the gulf stream.

 

The forecast information for the next seven days appears to show an eddy that attempts to reconnect with the gulf stream but fails miserably before disintegrating, maybe because the current is not strong enough? It is important to remember that this is only a forecast, so I will keep you updated when I know more with accurate results, appears very strange to me though.

It is however also very easy to identify the lack of current flowing towards the UK in the above data screen.  The gulf stream is often referred to as the UK central heating system, any slight anomalies can often lead to cooling and result in our temperatures being similar to Newfoundland who are on the same latitude as us but without the advantage of the gulf stream.

The current activity of the gulf stream therefore suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere & the UK

2.  The sun has and always will control the climate and weather.  The current lack of sunspots even with todays technology remain at very low levels, in fact they place us right back in the 1700s when we was in the midst of the little ice age.  Low sunspot activity correlates very well with the cooling of the planet and is also influential on ocean circulation some 5 to 25 years later.

The current solar activity of the sun therefore suggests = Global cooling

3.  The shrinking of the upper atmosphere or better known as the thermosphere ("heat sphere") results in the rapid cooling of our planet, as it decreases in correlation with low sunspot activity.  The fact that this is called the "heat sphere" says it all really.  The current condition will allow space and volcanic debris to stay in the atmosphere for longer periods and block out the sun even further.

The current state of the thermosphere suggests = Global cooling

4.  The icelandic volcano debris in the atmosphere and the prolonged effect from the thermosphere.  It is a well known fact that volcanes can largely influence the climate on earth in terms of cooling, it is also worth noting that mount sinabung also erupted for the first time in four hundred years earlier this week in Indonesia.

The current volcanic activity in regards to the icelandic volcano suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and the UK.

5.  The la nina always follows directly after the el nino that we have just currently experienced, which explains our slightly better than average summer earlier on in the year.  The la nina delivers ocean cooling that cools large masses of water which include the north atlantic, the immediate signs are that this is going to be huge with major effects over the next several months at the very least, this further suggests a cooling of the northern hemisphere and the UK.  The huge sea surface temperature declines below in comparison to 2009 and 2010 are a huge cause for concern.

Frascati National Laboratories, NOAA and Rutgers University. (Frascati Labs), July 29, 2010.

So there is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter and next due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically effect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12. 

Another area with a lot of interest is my view on the heavy snowfall, low sunspot activity often results in more cloud cover, this further cloud cover can block out the sunlight that we need and result in heavy snowfalls and further cooling, this is also connected to the thermosphere as mentioned in number 3 above due to the amount of radiation it is receiving from an already quiet sun.  Another influence of heavy snowfall for the UK is the position of the jet streams and based on last year and this year, this could also influence heavy snow.

My theory has and always will be based on the activity of the sun and how it correlates with many other factors as mentioned including ocean circualtion.  I simply take in to account what is going on around us and how it may effect our near and future climate, I then use this to correlate the likely climatic outcome which has proved successful so far on four separate occasions with the UK met office and the Nasa science behind the sunspot activity in 2008.  I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead that could even replica little ice age conditions or worse.  The following wikipedia article on the Maunder Minimum states "a connection between low sunspot activity and the little ice age, though it is believed that there was another factor that amplified its effects on Northern Europe and the UK", I suggest that the other factors are what I am mentioning right now in regards to the cold factors, we could well be heading for a new maunder minimum or little/full blown ice age.  Only time will tell but the immediate signs are not very comforting and people need to be aware as this is now a much bigger threat than any global warming!

I have informed the UK Met Office that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen. Remember I told you about this in September when we experience another severe winter this year. Why could the met office not?

Below are the emails I have sent and received:

Dear Met Office,

I thought that this might help you to possibly reinstate your seasonal forecasts, you really should read this from bottom to top in date order.

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

I do hope you enjoy my work and I am not saying I am correct about everything, although I do feel very strongly in regards to sunspots and its effects on the ocean circulation/global cooling. You will notice from the date stamps that I have proven on a consecutive number of times that yourself and Nasa scientist David Hathaway was wrong. I am sorry if that appears as me being rude, I promise you I am not, I am just trying to be a good scientist.

Kind Regards

J Madden

-

Dear Mr Madden

Thank you for your feedback and link which will be for our Hadley Centre to read and comment upon. I know they are always particularly busy and it is a fine balancing act that we have to be careful not to ask our scientists to step away from their core work too often to deal with enquiries or read drafts of papers written by the general public.

Having said that, we did make a press release about why we are no longer issuing seasonal forecasts and this can be found at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100305b.html . It is unlikely therefore, at this time, that we will re-instate them for public consumption.

Thank you for getting in touch.

-

date26 August 2010 15:25

subjectRe: re: Seasonal Forecasting - URGENT


Hi Sarah,

Thanks for your speedy response, I would appreciate it if someone does get the time to read it and be ever so greatful. Maybe if they take these factors in to consideration and find they have any value at all, they could actually issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is coming, I mean surely they have a right to know, you could save lives due to awareness and you can make this possible. As I see it at present the UK is in for a very severe winter this year and I feel people should be warned. There are four or five major factors in play that will influence a severe winter for the UK


1. Current sunspot activity

2. La nina

3. Icelandic Volcano

4. The shrinking of the earths upper atmosphere

5. The gulf stream if there is no major improvement


Best Wishes

J.Madden
-

I have also informed the UK tabloids from the exhaustive list below that they need to issue an emergency winter forecast to warn people of what is about to happen with not one single response so far.

The observer
The evening standard
Morning Star
The people
The guardian
The independent
Financial times
Telegraph
Daily star
News of the world
Daily mail
Express
Daily mirror
The sun
Metro

Below is a copy of the email I have sent:


Dear (tabloid name),


I am writing this in hope that you will seriously review my work and scientific based theories, for the consideration of publication within your newspaper.

I am a studying geographer with a particular interest in climatic change and rapid climate change, especially in regards to current solar activity and oceanic changes such as the gulf stream. I have in the past correctly criticised the science of NASA scientist David Hathaway, whilst also outsmarting the UK met office with their seasonal forecasts for several successions, which they have now decided to scrap altogether.

I also happen to have some very urgent news in regards to the severity of this coming winter for the UK and Northern Europe.

Below are links that reveal my actual story and research to date, which is available in the form of blogs due to the time and date stamps that they carry with them. It would be much appreciated if you could read all of them in date order by scrolling from the bottom of the blog upwards, without discarding it straight away due to the title, this really could pose a grave threat to the future climate of the UK and Northern Europe, possibly starting this winter.
http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

Having gone previously against the met office and David Hathaway to prove them wrong, I feel a matter of urgency in making people aware of what could well be around the corner in terms of my scientific theories.

I will look forward to your response


Kind Regards

J.Madden
-

I also now have a twitter page that I can be followed on @ http://twitter.com/ukweathergeek

I must however thank a certain person called Richard Clarke from Leeds for his influence on my decision to finally get around to doing this and start tweeting, so thanks Richard lets hope it raises some vital awareness!

Gulf Stream Update

I would like to state that the gulf stream has improved slightly over recent days, however I use the word improved very cautiously.   There is still a clear breakage in the loop current and a lot of factors including sea temperature suggest that the UK and Northern Europe are in for a dire winter as previously outlined in my previous posts to date.  After a lengthy discussion this morning with another colleague, I feel it is also important to mention the Milankovitch Cycle and where we are today with it, which appears to correlate very well with ice ages/cooling.

http://www.iccfglobal.org/ppt/Illarionov-01-10-04.ppt