Coldest UK summer (2011) in nearly two decades?

Coldest UK summer in nearly two decades?

2^nd September 2011

UK Autumn & Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

Many parts of the UK and Ireland are coming to terms with what the media has been recently reporting as the coldest summer in nearly two decades, and as we originally forecast back in January and early last month in the link below.

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-Indian-Summer-on-the-horizon-sorry-08082011.htm

The media have been reporting that this was coldest UK summer in 18 years on the basis of provisional Met Office data. I still need to review the HADCET data for previous summers, but since these reports was published the Central England Temperature (CET) has been adjusted from a mean of +0.1 to a final figure of -0.4 for August. The Met Office did correctly state in the link below that the media had taken this from figures based on August CET that was not yet complete.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/08/30/met-office-in-the-news-30-august-2011/

The Met Office also stated that the CET only represents a small part of the UK? Yet they fail to mention how valuable the CET dataset is to meteorologists and climatologists as the oldest recorded dataset in the world (over 350 years), and in terms of Northern Hemisphere temperatures. It will be interesting to see how their summer review that has not yet been updated for August in the link below reflects upon this, if at all.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html

June Mean CET = -0.4 below average

July Mean CET = -0.8 below average

August Mean CET = -0.4 below average

The summer also turned out to be wetter than average across the UK with dominant grey skies, and torrential downpours/flooding that became a frequent feature across many areas and all as we originally forecast. Parts of Scotland experienced their wettest 24 hours ever recorded, with severe flash flooding to the South of the UK since the last update.

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

www.ExactaWeather.com
Published: 2^nd September 2011 (15:57) BSTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Summer 2011 Recap to date + Winter 2011-2012 Update

Duplicate from http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Summer 2011 – Recap to date



June 2011

June turned out to be very wet and unsettled across the UK. Rainfall was largely above average, with many areas seeing more than 150% of their normal rainfall amounts, including drought hit eastern areas.

June was also the coldest in the UK for 10 years, with Northern Ireland experiencing their coolest June in 25 years. The mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for June was -0.4C below average.

July 2011

July also turned out to be relatively wet and unsettled across many parts of the UK. Certain parts of England and Scotland received 200% of their normal rainfall amounts, with rainfall amounts elsewhere more near average overall.

July was also the coldest in the UK for over 10 years, with minimum temperature resulting in the coldest July across the UK in over 30 years. The minimum Central England Temperature (CET) data had a significant anomaly of -1.1C. Although it has felt more pleasant at times with less rainless days during July in certain regions, the mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for July was -0.8C below average. Other long range forecasters failed to consider the intensity of the rainfall when it occurred or the minimum temperature, just as they will underestimate the intensity of snowfall and below average temperatures this winter.

Grey Skies

Many regions across the UK have also experienced notable grey skies due to above average cloud cover, as I originally forecast. I expect this trend to continue as I have outlined many times, due to the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years.

Original Forecast

I originally issued my UK summer forecast on the 30th January this year, well in advance of any other forecaster worldwide.

It read “Summer 2011”

“It would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity in my forecasts, so it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year”.

I also issued a warning for torrential downpours and severe flooding.


Summer 2011 Publications

I provided the Sunday Sun and Chronicle with my 2011 UK summer forecast in early April which read

“But, sun worshippers have been warned to make the most of the hot weather as long range forecasters say the outlook for summer is gloomy. James Madden said judging by solar activity and the current ocean atmosphere, the UK could see more rain and a dip in temperatures in June, July, and August. He said: “based on the factors covered, the summer as a whole could unfortunately be colder than average with above average rainfall. “In my opinion, odds of a barbecue summer this year are slim.”

http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2011/04/10/north-east-makes-the-most-of-the-lovely-weather-79310-28487833/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/09/tyneside-is-in-for-a-scorcher-of-a-weekend-72703-28487268/

August will have to show a major improvement to avoid a cold and wet UK summer this year. As it stands at present with more unsettled weather in store, a colder than average summer with above average rainfall is looking extremely likely as I originally forecast. The torrential downpours and severe flooding that we have seen in early August, have already seen parts of Yorkshire receive more than one month's rainfall in just 12 hours. Parts of north-east England and Northern Ireland also experienced severe conditions due to localised flooding, with further flood alerts also put in place across Northern England and Scotland.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/northern-england-put-flood-alert-104014593.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/04/flash-floods-yorkshire-torrential-rain

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/08/08/woman-dies-as-floods-batter-scotland-and-the-north-115875-23327860/


La Niña Watch – Update

The Climate Prediction Center recently issued a ENSO alert system status for a (La Niña Watch).

I clearly stated in March and May of this year that

“NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña conditions will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings.”


“Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña will have completely disappeared by June 2011. However, I am not convinced that it will completely disappear. Recent indicators may suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to take forecast accuracy into consideration for this time of year and the current phase of PDO. The possibility of La Niña redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months.”

Strictly this is true, as atmospheric circulation anomalies still reflect aspects of La Niña. The subsurface oceanic heat content in the upper parts of the equatorial pacific continued to weaken (FIG.1) with strengthening subsurface anomalies in the east-central pacific (FIG.2), hence the La Niña watch that has been issued.

Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift

As expected, it is still clearly visible to see from present day NOAA satellite images that no improvements have been offered in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift.

The surface horizontal current (0m in depth) should be more comparable to the image in (FIG.3 – August 2009) below than (FIG.4 – August 2011), in order for the UK and Western Europe to benefit from this valuable heat source.

I clearly stated in early August 2010 that “the strength of the current seemed to be in a position that would no longer feed towards the UK or Northern Europe, due to a breakage that appeared in the gulf loop current”. I have also clearly stated in many of my posts that “if nothing improved soon in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift, that this would begin to alter the climate of the UK, especially more so in winter”.

Even at depths of (100m) nothing improves in (FIG.5) below. This is especially important if we compare this to the surface horizontal current of (0m) in 2009 in (FIG.3) below.

Solar Activity

One of the main factors I have strongly emphasised on within my forecasts, is my thesis on future levels of low solar activity.

31st January 2011

Geomagnetic activity is minimal, this will result in extra cloud cover and alter temperatures, with further repercussions of prolonged periods of low solar activity in the future, that could see sunspots vanish.

15th November 2010

The will also have future effects on further periods of prolonged low solar activity.

19th September 2010

This has future effects on further periods of low solar activity, which means more spotless days and more prolonged periods of low solar activity.

Recent scientific research from the National Solar Observatory (NSO), strongly indicate that the next 11 year solar cycle, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all. Although some sunspots are visible at present (FIG.6), solar activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be and according to all NASA's predictions to date. I stated in April 2009 that

“David Hathaway is a well respected solar physicist for NASA, who recently reported that there was nothing wrong with the sun on the highly respected NASA website. He stated that the average length of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. In October 2008 this was 145 months and the standard deviation of 14 months was officially over, which means we are now 6 months (April 2009) outside of his prediction. Although Hathaway suggests that the current solar cycle does not worry him, anticipating many more spotless days before a return to solar max conditions in around 2012? His theories appear very confusing for a scientist who has claimed to of cracked the suns conveyor belt as far back as 1890.”

Since then NASA and Hathaway have admitted that they were wrong about their predictions in a new scientist article in June 2010. Hathaway also recently stated that we will not reach the 150-200 sunspots as they predicted in 2006, we will instead be heading for a drastic decline that will place us in the lowest sunspot cycle in centuries. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of prolonged low solar activity.

The low solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will once again influence the pattern of the jet stream this winter due to the cooling of the stratosphere. This will block warm air from reaching the UK and create more moisture in terms of snowfall. When high pressure builds towards Greenland (Greenland High) this allows extremely cold easterlies or north-easterlies to develop.

Combined with the other factors that I have covered, this will result in an early start to winter with prolonged periods of cold and widespread heavy snowfall that will see many parts of Scotland/Scottish Highlands, Northern Ireland, North-east England, and Northern England get particularly hard hit throughout. I still expect to see records broken with widespread disruption from snowfall that will once again be hugely underestimated by others.

FIG.6 NASA (7th Aug 2011)

I posted this satellite image back in January 2010 below (FIG.7) and stated that “this is most probably a taste of our near future in the UK.”

Then this happened in December 2010, only 11 months later (FIG.8)

I will not be surprised when I can post another satellite image similar to these for the 2011-2012 UK winter.

Our Winter 2011-2012 Publications

Here we have links to what must be the earliest ever publications in regards to an upcoming UK winter below. Maybe this tells us all something?

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-sun-and-a-severe-weather-warning-21062011.htm

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/expert_warns_arctic_winters_on_the_way_1_2826532

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/severe-weather-warning-issued-for-winter-2011-12/20748.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2011/jun/22/winter-forecast-sharrow-bay-miller-howe-tesco-stockton-on-tees-campaign-for-wool

http://www.naturalnews.com/033178_radical_weather_extremes.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/idUS77740+13-Jun-2011+BW20110613


And finally here is some food for thought to leave you all with. The Met Office is to be investigated by MPs following the outcry over the barbecue summer and continuing questions over climate change. The Met office has also come under extreme scrutiny after handing out up to £1.5 million in bonuses, yet they don't issue long range forecasts?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8648215/MPs-inquiry-into-Met-Office.html

Please feel free to check any of the statements that I have made previously within my past forecasts/blog.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

http://www.exactaweather.com/

Published: 7th August 2011 (09:12) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

7th August 2011 Forecast - PDF VERSION

UK Summer Forecast 2011 - Update

Duplicate from Exactaweather.com 6th April 2011

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Press releases for 2011 UK Summer Forecast (Originally Released Jan 2011)

http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2011/04/10/north-east-makes-the-most-of-the-lovely-weather-79310-28487833/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/11/north-east-sunseekers-flock-to-the-great-outdoors-72703-28498720/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/09/tyneside-is-in-for-a-scorcher-of-a-weekend-72703-28487268/

Q & A: Gulf Stream / Thermohaline Circulation, Polar Shift, Solar Activity - Warnings 2011-2012

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 13th March 2011)

Q & A: Gulf Stream & Jet Stream, Pole Shift / Magnetic Reversal, Supermoon, Sunspot Activity

I have had a stream of similar questions in regards to

1). The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

2). Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

3). Supermoon

4). Rise in sunspot activity

The gulf stream and jet stream being connected

In Layman's terms, the position and strength of the jet streams help meteorologists to predict future weather. There is no real scientific evidence of a direct relationship between the gulf stream and jet stream. It is however plausible that the two could be indirectly connected in relation to the current polar shift, as they have both been behaving in a similar fashion in recent years.

Climate factors such as La Niña can also hugely influence the jet stream. In terms of the UK and Europe, the general trend is more precipitation due to a stronger jet stream in the North Atlantic. Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that the La Niña will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings. The gulf stream / thermohaline circulation have still offered no improvements, of which we will now begin to see the lag effect start to take place.

Polar shift / Magnetic reversal

Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters, in regards to a polar shift / magnetic reversal. However, in terms of how I personally interpret the scientific data available, it would be adequate to suggest that an accelerating polar shift is well underway. I personally feel that this will pose a huge threat in terms of further severe global weather events and huge natural disasters within the next 22 months, in relation to increased seismic and volcanic activity that others will hugely underestimate.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the polar shift and solar activity is related to the increase in seismic and volcanic activity, which is furthermore resulting in large earthquakes and devastating tsunamis, as we have just recently witnessed in Japan. Not only have we seen four of the largest earthquakes since 1900 in the last seven years, they also all ranked inside the ten largest. Two of which Chile (8.8) and Japan (8.9) occurred in the last 12 months.

Supermoon

As I have previously stated, I personally feel that the increase in Earth's seismic and volcanic activity must be directly linked with solar activity and polar shift. We are about to enter a phase over the coming weeks, that will see the moon at the closest distance from Earth, also known as supermoon. Once again, there is no real scientific data to support a direct relationship between severe weather events and major natural disasters in regards to a supermoon.

However, in terms of how I personally interpret this, it would be impossible to rule out a string of further natural disasters, volcanic eruptions, and major earthquakes over the coming weeks. Especially in regards to what we are currently seeing in Japan at present. In terms of global weather, it may also have the potential to cause abnormal storms around the world.

Rise in sunspot activity

The sun has recently seen a significant rise in sunspot activity. However, this does not justify titled articles I have seen such as "the sun has awoken". Observations over the coming months will be very interesting, especially as NASA scientist David Morrison has even stated that they are expecting a weak solar maximum in the video here. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of low solar activity, and changes nothing in regards to my current forecasts and how I calculate solar activity into them.

It will also be interesting to see the future modeling of sunspot numbers, and whether this will make any difference to the solar flux / geomagnetic index.


And finally, I have a very interesting article titled "sir paul nurse abandons scientific priniciples on becoming president of royal society", by Mike Hersee the co-founder of Heal London. It also goes on to mention myself and Exacta Weather, and Piers Corbyn from Weather Action.

"It’s now been proven that on 25th October the Met office in the UK, led by AGW champion Robert Napier, confirmed a weather prediction for winter 2010/2011 that was hopelessly inaccurate in the extreme, and no significant correction was subsequently forthcoming. Long-range weather forecasters WeatherAction.com rely predominantly on solar and lunar factors as drivers of climatic conditions and On 1st December Piers Corbyn posted a video on youtube claiming that the period December to February would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like hell frozen over at times, with much of England, Germany, Benelux and Northern France suffering one of the coldest winters for over 100 years, with two of the months December, January or February likely to be in the three coldest for 100 years”. Furthermore he said, “During this time, standard meteorology will consistently underestimate the lengths of these cold periods and will also grossly underestimate the severity of blizzards and snow deluges at times”. But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office who was confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010, and why 2011/2012 was expected to be worse still".

It makes for a very interesting read and the actual programme itself is also very interesting. Special thanks to Mike Hersee.

Please consider a donation to the Japan Tsunami Appeal HERE


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Published: 13th March 2011 (17:12) GMT

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Summer and Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 + Warnings

UK Summer and Winter Weather Forecast 2011-12

Duplicate from exactaweather.com (Published: 30th January 2011)

Well there has certainly been more precipitation in the form of widespread heavy snowfall and rainfall, with well below average temperatures as I originally forecast. I was also able to forecast this with confidence several months in advance, when other highly paid and respected meteorologists was forecasting a mild and dry winter.

November although not officially winter in terms of meteorology, saw widespread heavy snowfall and the coldest night on record in parts of the UK. The average UK temperature also never rose above freezing throughout December. Large icebergs was also a frequent sight in the Irish Sea and Morecambe Bay area towards the latter part of the month, in what turned out to be the coldest December in 100 years. January has been somewhat milder, and the stage the La Niña is at can sometimes influence this much needed and welcomed weather. However, it has certainly not been tropical by any means, more near average. The highlands of Scotland has still been particularly hard hit throughout January as originally forecast, and many other locations have still seen some sort of snowfall. It is also important to remember that winter runs until the 1st March in terms of meteorology, and it may still hold some more surprises for us yet in terms of my original forecast and into spring.

I also clearly stated ample times "the lag effect" of low solar activity and the shift of the gulf stream, in regards to the climate system and weather. Which leads me to my summer and winter outlook for 2011/2012. In regards to how I calculate solar activity and other natural factors, I am able to offer a UK Summer and Winter outlook for 2011-12, with high confidence at such an early stage that I am more than comfortable with. Other meteorologists will say this is impossible, they will however differ to myself in terms of the methods used, and the climate models that they choose to use. As I have stated before, I consider solar variability as the major cause of climate change. I sincerely hope that my early forecasts will stress the importance for the need to incorporate historical sunspot data into long term weather forecasting, and how it corresponds with the ocean.

It is a well known and documented fact that low solar activity is linked with periods of colder temperatures over Europe, which also interestingly includes a rise in wheat prices. Sunspot activity did increase somewhat last year, however in terms of rotation, positioning, and the solar flares produced, I am not convinced that much has changed. Another major cause for concern is the strength of the magnetic fields from these sunspots. Geomagnetic activity is minimal, and the current geomagnetic index is at an all time low. This will result in extra cloud cover and further affect temperatures, with future repurcussions of further prolonged periods of low solar activity, that could see sunspots vanish.

The fact also still remains that we should now be in a solar maximum. So let's take a look at how the sun should look during a solar maximum below. See Fig.1

FIG.1 SOHO/NASA, (2003)

So now let's take a look at the sun below in 2008. See Fig.2

FIG.2 SOHO/NASA, (2008)

Finally let's take a look at the sun below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.3
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.3 SOHO/NASA, (2011)

This extended period of low solar activity has now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.
 
I can also not stress the importance of the gulf stream shift enough than I already have, in terms of the amount of heat that it transfers to the UK. So let's now take a look at some comparable real time satellite data below, in relation to the horizontal current in 2009 and 2010. See Fig.4
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FIG.4 NOAA, (2009 & 2010)

Now let's take a look at at the horizontal current data below dated: 30th Jan 2011. See Fig.5

FIG.5 NOAA, (2011)

This has also now gone on for far too long, to be anywhere near normal.

 
Summer 2011

Based on the factors I have covered, it would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the lag effect of the gulf stream shift to couple this. However, I also feel that the La Niña will largely influence the UK summer, in terms of how it will affect the jet stream.

WARNING!
This could lead to torrential downpours and severe flooding

So it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this year.


Winter 2011-2012

Based on the natural factors that I have covered, it would also be adequate to suggest well below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts. The UK will also begin to see the dire lag effects of the gulf stream shift couple this, especially if nothing improves soon. The La Niña should also continue to establish itself further as expected, and once again in terms of how it will influence the jet stream. We could therefore see widespread heavy snowfall once again, for the first part of winter at the very least. This would result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and should prove to be the worst of them all.

WARNING!
Widespread heavy snowfall and well below average temperatures that should see records broken.

I will update the outlooks as and when required, in regards to any other natural factors or changes that may need consideration in my forecasts.

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.