Solar Activity + Start To Summer 2012 + Winter 2012-13

Solar Activity + Start To Summer 2012 + Winter 2012-13

There has recently been a large amount of hype and global media reports surrounding the sun entering a new Maunder/Dalton minimum type state.

Having looked into this in more depth, the bulk of it appears to stem from claims in regard to the quadrupole/quadrupolar sun from the Japanese Astronomical society and international media reports dated from as early as 20^th April 2012.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075

The important factors that I have gathered from this information is that:

According to the Japanese Astronomical society, the magnetic shifts in the sun replicate those that occurred during the “little ice age” when the River Thames used to freeze over in London. Their data suggests that the sun is about to enter a period of reduced solar activity/hibernation, even though the exact opposite is meant to be happening, and in accordance with the professional and scientific predictions to date.

Although this is nothing new in terms of the claims that I have been consistently making in regard to our future weather and climate, it is further weighting towards my scientific suggestions and personal methodology. There are also far easier methods of arriving at this conclusion before the release of this scientific information from the Japanese Astronomical society.

These changes have also occurred much earlier than the leading scientists/professional bodies were anticipating.

I published the following information in an update on the 27^th February 2012 (several weeks before the release of this information from the Japanese Astronomical society).

“We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating.”

I have also published/provided the following information on the subsequent dates:

Mr Madden said he believes harsh winters are here to stay. "I think we could be headed towards that," he said. "I believe this is just the start of that cycle." (The Herald Ireland – September and October 2011).

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.” (Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6^th December 2010).

I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead, that could even replicate little ice age conditions or worse. We could well be heading for a new Maunder minimum. (6^th September 2010 – Archived on blog and Youtube channel).

I simply want to make as many people aware of my science theories as possible, because if they are correct, there are some very tough and cold times ahead. (1^st November 2009 – Archived on blog).

The sun is currently blank of sunspots and solar activity is at very low levels, striking fears of huge global cooling on earth, similar to the Sporer, Maunder, or Dalton minimum. (22^nd January 2009 – Archived on blog).

I also made all of these statements when global warming had a fairly tight stronghold upon the scientific and global community from the alarmists. This particular subject will now be questioned by many in time to come. I have also made very strong scientific suggestions as to how this intrinsically alters our weather and climate.

Winter 2012-13

I strongly emphasised on the strong winds throughout the winter period of 2011/12 in August, before any other suggestions from any other forecaster. I also suggest that unusually strong winds will again be problematic at times during the upcoming autumn/winter period too.

As for next winter, the Met Office representation/scientist who stated “we are currently expecting a series of milder winters” will be incorrect about the upcoming 2012/2013 winter (Aired BBC 2 - 6^thNovember 2011).

I also expect that the “series of milder winters” statement was made due to the unexpected rise in solar activity during the late part of 2011, and the expected rises being forecast by other professional bodies for the future (when I have consistently argued otherwise).

I expect large parts of this winter to be very cold and exceptionally snowy in comparison to last year (forecasting confidence is quite high). I also expect these conditions to arrive earlier, rather than later this winter. There may even be the potential for some of the coldest/snowiest conditions in at least a century at times within the upcoming winter. More detailed information to follow on this shortly in the UK winter 2012-13 forecast/updates.

Start of meteorological summer – June 2012

The start of the meteorological summer will bring a wide variation of unsettled weather types across the country. June will also be hampered by periods of cool and wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in temperatures for the time of the year in places. Some of these showers will also turn particularly heavy and thundery in places, with the potential for some further wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow in places (especially across higher ground in parts to the north – in what will be officially summer). The unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some very strong winds at times throughout June too.

Any periods of prolonged warmer and settled weather are relatively slim throughout June. However, one or two widespread warm are sunny periods are likely to develop, but I expect these to be very brief in nature. The best of any drier and brighter weather to be had throughout the month, will more than likely feature in Scotland and some parts of the north. Elsewhere, is likely to experience a generally unsettled and very wet theme throughout June as a whole.

Temperatures as a whole are also likely to be near or below-average for June. However, I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below-average for June (the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old).

(Original summer 2012 forecast was issued nearly three months in older posts below)

I'm taking some short leave to spend some much-needed time with my family, whilst also conducting some important weather-related research. In the meantime, you can still check the latest short-range weather forecasts for your region, that are continually updated at regular intervals throughout each day.

Make the best of the more settled and warmer weather at present.

Don't forget to enter the free Olympics and Euro 2012 competitions for your chance to win a free holiday voucher/weather station.

Coldest UK summer (2011) in nearly two decades?

Coldest UK summer in nearly two decades?

2^nd September 2011

UK Autumn & Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

Many parts of the UK and Ireland are coming to terms with what the media has been recently reporting as the coldest summer in nearly two decades, and as we originally forecast back in January and early last month in the link below.

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-Indian-Summer-on-the-horizon-sorry-08082011.htm

The media have been reporting that this was coldest UK summer in 18 years on the basis of provisional Met Office data. I still need to review the HADCET data for previous summers, but since these reports was published the Central England Temperature (CET) has been adjusted from a mean of +0.1 to a final figure of -0.4 for August. The Met Office did correctly state in the link below that the media had taken this from figures based on August CET that was not yet complete.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/08/30/met-office-in-the-news-30-august-2011/

The Met Office also stated that the CET only represents a small part of the UK? Yet they fail to mention how valuable the CET dataset is to meteorologists and climatologists as the oldest recorded dataset in the world (over 350 years), and in terms of Northern Hemisphere temperatures. It will be interesting to see how their summer review that has not yet been updated for August in the link below reflects upon this, if at all.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html

June Mean CET = -0.4 below average

July Mean CET = -0.8 below average

August Mean CET = -0.4 below average

The summer also turned out to be wetter than average across the UK with dominant grey skies, and torrential downpours/flooding that became a frequent feature across many areas and all as we originally forecast. Parts of Scotland experienced their wettest 24 hours ever recorded, with severe flash flooding to the South of the UK since the last update.

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

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Published: 2^nd September 2011 (15:57) BSTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.