Start of Summer 2012 + The Coldest May in 100 years

Start of Summer 2012

The start of the meteorological summer has seen a marked drop in temperatures and a return to more unsettled weather in comparison to the warm and sunny and weather that we experienced in the later part of May.

(Please see original summer forecast issued in Feb 2012 below/archives & original June forecast issued in May 2012 below/archives)

The Coldest May in 100 years

Firstly, this claim/prediction never came from myself or Exacta Weather. My original May forecast also stated that temperatures were more likely to be near-average or below-average for the May period too. Now even though the warmer weather that we experienced in the latter part of May was much more extensive and prolonged than myself and most other forecasters (who have any shred of honesty towards their readers) had originally anticipated, it could have quite easily of gone the other way too.

Temperatures were almost 2C below-average until the final part of May, hence the reasoning behind my original prediction for near-average or below-average temperatures as a whole for the May period. My original spring forecast also stated the potential for some warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times as we progressed throughout the May period too (issued almost three months ago). Now although the coldest May in 100 years headlines proved to be incorrect for a certain forecaster, I am also not aware of any headlines or long term predictions from the Met Office that appeared to indicate a mini heatwave for the latter part of spring either.

In a nutshell, we are currently in a rather disordered period of time that will bring some difficulties to certain aspects of weather forecasting/computer models, due to the magnetic changes that are occurring within the sun and here on Earth. These factors also have an important bearing on earthquake and volcanic activity as covered in my earlier archived posts and videos. The general theme for the coming years and decades will still largely consist of cooler wetter summers/colder snowier winters for the UK. However, some people will still try to lay false claims in predicting the warmer weather that occurred in May, whereas others such as those with (warmist agendas) will utilise this and any future periods of warmer weather to their full advantage, whilst they still have the ability to do so.

UK Weather Forecast – May 2012

UK Weather Forecast – May 2012

As we head into May and the final part of spring, the picture is set to remain relatively cool for the time of the year. There will also be some further wintry showers of sleet and snow at times, especially across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England. There will, however, also be some periods of warmer and pleasant weather at times, but these are likely to be relatively short-lived in nature. Any periods of warmer and milder weather are more likely to be varied in terms of location throughout the month, whist also becoming confined to a certain part of the country. Basically, they are unlikely to become extensive and prolonged across most parts.

The temperature for the May period as a whole is therefore, likely to be near or below-average. The Central England Temperature (CET) for April also currently resides at an abysmal -0.5C below-average. A likely continuation of this pattern as we progress throughout the final part of spring, will mean my original hypothesis of a near or below-average spring in terms of temperature was just about right. This comes after the third warmest March on record, when others were forecasting an above-average spring due to the conditions being experienced at the time. Others were also suggesting nothing as they don't forecast this far ahead.

I stated on the 27^th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too”

Youtube spring forecast link - 27th February 2012

It is also likely to be relatively dry in terms of rainfall amounts throughout the May period too. However, drought-stricken southern and eastern parts will experience some much needed and heavy rainfall at times. This will unfortunately fail to ease the drought concerns in these parts as we head into the start of the meteorological summer.

I also stated on the 27^th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter”

“The rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole”

My original hypothesis of near or below-average rainfall amounts/drought fears for the spring period will also prove to be just about right, if the remainder of my spring forecast balances out as expected.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

UK Spring Weather Forecast 2012

Spring Weather Forecast 2012

Now although the spring and autumn periods have become an extremely difficult period to forecast for in recent years, due to some of the unusual patterns that have developed. March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter.

The March to April period is also initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times with some wintry showers in places within this period too. However, the latter part of April and into May could offer some potentially warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times. There does remain some uncertainty with myself in regard to the actual rainfall amounts that we are likely to experience in the second half of spring at present. On this basis, I will say that the rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole. Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too.

Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.

 

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

 

ExactaWeather.com

Published: Monday 27^thFebruary 2012
Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.