Indian Summer To Arrive On Cue + Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter UK, Ireland and United States Cold & Snow

Indian Summer To Arrive On Cue + Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter

Much of this week will become dry and settled with a gradual increase in temperatures to deliver an Indian summer for many parts of the country.

Temperatures are likely to touch or exceed 25C in parts of the south towards the end of the week and into next weekend due to more southerly winds (12th September), which is 8C above-average for the time of year. Other parts of the country are also likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s at the very least, even parts as far north as Scotland could see maximum temperatures in the low 20s. 

Unfortunately, some cloud cover could be of issue at times preventing wall to wall sunshine, but it will feel rather warm and pleasant in among the clearer sunnier periods.

However, the more settled conditions will be accompanied by some rather chilly nights to start next week under the clearer skies, and many places will get down to single digits at times during the first half of the week.

Later next weekend and into early next week could bring some sort of breakdown from the west of the country to more unsettled conditions and some developing thunderstorm activity. However, the high pressure that is likely to feature across our shores for the next several days could prevent any unsettled conditions or major fronts pushing in from the Atlantic, and it could very well be that we get an extension of the more settled and warmer weather than some current model indications for another several days before a potential breakdown.

Our 4 month ahead subscribers Autumn forecast also stated the following:

On our present indications the start to the meteorological autumn of 2015 is likely to see some warm temperatures developing for the time of the year within the early stages, in particular, in some parts to the south and east of the country throughout September. However, the warm periods are also likely to have quite a widespread influence at times.

Some changeable periods of more unsettled weather in terms of heavy rain and strong winds will also develop at times throughout September, and this will bring the risk of some potentially thundery downpours when they replace the warmer periods, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country.

The following media article from the 31st August also stated in reference to this:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said after the dire start to September, the weather could yet improve. Early signs show the first part of autumn is shaping up to be warm with a late scorcher not out of the question, he added.

He said: "As we progress throughout the week after some rather cool and showery days it will begin to turn more settled and warmer. "This should see a return to summery weather by the weekend and into the early part of next week for many. "So although it may feel rather autumnal to start the meteorological autumn it will only be short-lived."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/602038/Arctic-winds-bank-holiday-weekend-rain

Important Note On Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter

Towards the end of last year Exacta Weather forewarned of the serious implications that we were facing from colder than average SST in the Atlantic due to a changing Gulf Stream and low solar activity. Even though these changes never impacted our winter as it should have done, there is an important lag effect within this process that was difficult to define at that particular point, especially with it being something that doesn't occur regular. All of our forecasts/statements also warned about the implications this would have on our 'long term' weather patterns if nothing changed and not just last winter alone.

We really would have needed to see some changes throughout this year to escape the inevitable this time around. However, as expected, this is not the sort of process that reverts back on itself quickly once it occurs, especially when we are in such a period of low solar activity. However, there have been no improvements since we first reported on these changes, if anything the overall situation has worsened... This now means that those who like cold and snowy winters will not be disappointed this year, in particular, in the UK, Ireland and the north/east coast of the United States (see recent North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the below image).

The following article from the Express and Nathan Rao from the 1st January superbly covered this topic in depth, and it also correctly forewarned that the upcoming year would be dogged by cold blasts with a cool/unsettled/stormy summer from several months ahead due to theses changes in solar output and the Gulf Stream.

The 1st January article also stated the following in reference to the Gulf Stream, low solar activity and summer 2015:

The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/549619/2015-weather-forecast-UK-five-months-cold-winter

An additional media article from the 27th February also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-winter-last-another-5240729

An additional media article from the 9th April also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

An additional media article (above) from the 27th May also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks.”

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The Met Office has also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain over the last few months in the below article.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/britain-endures-coldest-summer-in-years-met-office-figures-show-a2926106.html

Yet 3 months earlier they stated the following in one of our articles for a colder than average and unsettled summer:

"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

An additional media article from the 9th April also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 6th September 2015 – James Madden

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Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms

Summer Accuracy To Date + Detailed Pattern Change Update & Hot August? + Major Thunderstorms
To date the 2015 summer has been rather changeable and unsettled with nothing spectacular in terms of prolonged warm weather due to a more southerly driven jet-stream, which allows low pressure and rainfall to dominate proceedings across the UK and Ireland.

Our 8 month ahead summer forecast that was issued before any other meteorological forecast for the summer period of 2015 has correctly identified the following to date:

A largely unsettled June and July with below-average temperatures due to a southerly driven jet-stream from a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and low solar activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation has been largely negative throughout June and July and temperatures in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET) were below-average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Our 8 month 2015 summer forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated all of the following to subscribers in reference to this:

The 2015 summer period (June to August) is likely to endure some much colder and wetter than average conditions as a whole, and in comparison to last year. The June to August, period is therefore, likely to experience a dominating pattern of quite wet weather and untimely summertime storms.

Although 2014 proved to be a warm year for the UK, with every month except August featuring an above-average CET (Central England Temperature), the 2015 summer period is likely to be somewhat different and significantly cooler overall. This is due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how this intrinsically alters our long-term weather patterns and ocean behaviour. This will become quite apparent throughout the early part of 2015, and for what is also likely to be a much colder than average summer period, for which we are likely to experience a strong displacement of the jet-stream southwards throughout the upcoming summer period for some quite prolonged periods.

The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer.

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office and PA Meteogroup:

"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9th April 2015:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th February 2015:

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-winter-last-another-5240729

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1st January 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/549619/2015-weather-forecast-UK-five-months-cold-winter

The major warm spell at the end of June/start of July which brought the hottest July day temperatures on record

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

This doesn't mean consistent colder than average conditions and rain for the upcoming summer period, and some periods of moderation or near normal temperatures can be expected to develop at times. The latter part of June and into the final month of summer is likely to offer some respite from these conditions at times, although we don't expect it to become exceptionally warm or hot for any prolonged periods or for the time of the year within this period.

However, a number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August, that could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with at the very least, before becoming more widespread to other parts of the country later.

Our forecast also indicated a pattern change to a more influential Azores High throughout the latter part of July and into August/September.

This is where those who feel the need to try and pick holes in our forecasts will gladly try and do so as they have nothing else to pick at, and they will also 'incorrectly' say that this pattern change should of happened weeks ago. So lets cover what they don't want you to know or what they will try and brush under the carpet in terms of our latest long range forecast achievements.

Our long range forecast for the summer accurately forecast the more unsettled and cooler theme and the exact causes to date from a more southerly driven jet-stream/negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - as outlined in various media articles and our long-range subscribers reports which we have provided proof links to within this update. It is also important to remember that our initial calculations for this 'developing' pattern change was from 8 months ahead, and with such long range calculations our long range forecasts always state that some standard deviation has to be applied. In essence the forecast has correctly identified a pattern change to a more influential Azores high for the period it stated, but it is taking some time to establish itself firmly so that it becomes beneficial for most and if not all parts of the country. The heat and high pressure is there, and many in the southern half of the country have benefited quite well recently in terms of some quite warm to hot conditions and settled weather, whereas parts further north have still struggled with some suppressed temperatures and further changeable weather despite an improving theme of better and warmer weather days when compared to the rest of the summer to date. However, the timing was there for these changes, in particular, in the southern half of the country, just as they were for June and July in terms of the cooler and more unsettled weather conditions.

So just to be 100% clear – our forecast correctly favoured a largely unsettled and cool summer with a gradual pattern change throughout August and into September.

We also stated in our long range forecast that it may take some time to become more effective to the rest of the UK and Ireland, and at the very latest we could see these conditions taking more of a stronghold during the second half of August and into much of September as the jet stream returns to a more beneficial position for an Azores High to become more influential across our shores, thus allowing for a number of prolonged warm to hot periods of weather for many.

The following was also stated within the provided media article in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27th May 2015:

"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.

"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to be cooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.

Our 8 month forecast issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated the following to subscribers in reference to this:

A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions could develop throughout the latter part of June, and a more notable warmish/hot spell during the second half of August.

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to some major thunderstorms and potential flooding for the first half of August which is now being reflected upon from standard meteorology for later this week + for the exact locations (14th - 15th August):

This will also bring the additional risk of some notable and widespread flood events/vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in parts of south-west/southern England and later to parts of north-east England for in or around the first half of August.

Summary

These cooler summers are also a clear indication of where our future climate and weather patterns are heading in terms of cooler/wetter summers and colder snowier winters, and everything Exacta Weather has ever stood for scientifically since our launch in 2010, and despite the bastion of support for the principles behind global warming.

Our original summer forecast PDF is also available to view by clicking here


Recent scientific articles (2015) such as this will now also become more commonplace in the coming years and decades:

Britain Faces Freezing Winters As Slump In Solar Activity Threatens Little Ice Age

http://rightedition.com/2015/06/24/britain-faces-freezing-winters-as-slump-in-solar-activity-threatens-little-ice-age/

It also stated the following: James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the effects may be felt as soon as this winter.

He also said: “Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. “We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. “On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16.”

UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 11th August 2015 – James Madden

Please note that this update was posted to subscribers at an earlier time

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Change Is Here For The Weather SUMMER - UK & Ireland

Change Is Here For The Weather & Change Is Here For Our New Website

For a large part of the summer to date we have experienced a rather changeable and unsettled theme for many, in particular, in many parts of Ireland, and in northern and western areas of the United Kingdom during July. In exception for one notable and widespread heat blast during the latter part of June and into early July, there has been nothing notable in terms of prolonged settled weather and exceptional warmth (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that there was the potential for a major heat blast during the end of June and early July + the major lightning and thunderstorms/flooding that followed).

However, some parts to the south of the UK have fared better at times in terms of warmer and more settled weather, although it still won't be enough to stop July from becoming the third consecutive month of below-average temperatures in terms of the Central England Temperature (CET) which is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (Our 8 month ahead summer forecast correctly indicated that June and July were likely to be colder than average months overall).

To date we have seen a more southerly driven jet-stream which brings more changeable and unsettled weather to our shores. However, as we enter into the weekend of the 1^st August, we are likely to see a quite significant pattern change to a more northerly driven jet-stream. This will allow high pressure to become more prominent across our shores from this weekend onwards and into much of August.

The outcome will result in more settled and largely warm to hot weather conditions for most parts of the country within this period, in particular, in the southern half of the country. There is also the potential for some exceptional heat spikes now that this pattern change is taking place, and we are likely to see a number of these developing throughout August. These could match or be similar in comparison to what we experienced in early July, but for more prolonged periods given the stage of summer that we are now entering. However, it may take a little longer to entirely nudge the unsettled conditions from some more northern and western areas than initially anticipated (please also bear in mind that the initial solar calculations for these changes in our long range forecasts were from 8 months ahead, and that we need to allow for some deviations in exact timing)

However, it won't remain entirely settled all the time, and some parts are still likely to see some occasional showers, in particular, in some of these northern and western areas and parts of Ireland, but in among any showers it will feel rather warm and pleasant for the majority of the time for most parts of the country in August. There is also the risk for some heavy and potentially thundery showers at times with these heat surges, and the additional risk of some localised flooding to be prepared for at the very least.

The following media article stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27^th May 2015:

(These exact forecast details were also released 5 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)

Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.

James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable andunsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.

"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.

"August is most likely to be the best month of the summer in terms of maximum temperatures and more settled conditions.

"Indeed, we could see it becoming quite hot for prolonged periods within this month. "But as a whole, the summer is likely to becooler, wetter and more unsettled this year, with a large number of untimely summertime storms.

"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as thejet stream and storm tracks. The excessive rainfall amounts may also contribute to a number of potentially major flood events throughout the upcoming summer, in particular in some parts to the north and east"

The same article also stated the following from the Met Office:

However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/this-is-going-to-be-our-worst-summer-in-years-warns-forecaster-31250488.html

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 9^th April 2015:

(These forecast details were also released 4 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.

“These can alter longer term weather patterns around the globe and trigger anomalies in weather patterns for further ahead.

“Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 27^th February 2015:

(These forecast details were also released 2 months ahead of this media article to UK & Ireland subscribers)

James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.

"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for Ireland in particular.

Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.

He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.

"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.

"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.

Mirror Article - 27th February 2015 HERE

The following and even earlier media article also stated the following in relation to this summer and low solar activity from the 1^st January 2015:

The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder (2015).

He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.

He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.

“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.

Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.

Express Article - 1st January 2015 HERE

This is a superb piece of coverage on our scientific work and analysis via the Daily Express, and despite only 'minor' and not 'major' stratospheric warming during the winter of 2014/15 for the period we stated from several months ahead (hence it not being as cold and snowy as expected overall), this media article still holds high validity for many other areas within our scientific work/long range weather forecasts that we would like to refer back to now and in future.

This really will be our last ever posting/weather update via the old Exacta Weather website until our new website goes live during the evening of the 1^st August. It's out with the old and in with the new as we say goodbye to our old website that has served us for the last five years' and hello to the new and improved Exacta Weather website for the future.

In the meantime this is your last chance to take advantage of the FREE weather station offer from the Science Museum with our lifetime subs offer for only £49.99 in the link below (Never pay a penny again for our forecasts + Last few days remaining on this offer):

http://www.exactaweather.com/New_Website.html

UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 29^th July 2015 – James Madden

UK & Ireland Heatwave To Arrive On Cue? + Little Ice Age

Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'Little Ice Age'

A recent Met Office-led study is now warning that Britain faces years of unusually cold winters due to low solar activity.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-facing-mini-5933890

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. "We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. "On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16."

Our much earlier comments within various media and dated scientific claims + our methodology for long-range weather and climate forecasting + weather events that we have forecast over the past 5-6 years in the links below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Science___Methodology.html

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden

Hottest Spell Of The Year To Arrive On Cue For The UK & Ireland

Temperatures will begin to rise quite rapidly throughout the early part of next week as warmer winds veer in from a more southerly direction (From Monday 29th June). This will bring some increasingly warm to hot weather with periods of bright sunshine developing for many. Temperatures could climb as high as the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and south -making this the hottest spell of weather to date for this year. However, there will be the risk of some occasional rain at times, in particular, in parts of the far north. There will also be the risk for some potentially heavy downpours and vigorous thunderstorm activity later next week, in particular, in parts of the south. However, as a whole we can look forward to a rather settled and warm period of weather to start the second month of the meteorological summer and for much of next week.

Our 7 month ahead preliminary 2015 summer forecast that was issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated for this exact period + another period that is still to come:

A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions and a more notable warmish/hot spell could develop throughout the latter part of June/start of July. This could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with, before becoming more widespread in other parts of the country later.

UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time

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NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK/IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE

Articles on the upcoming El Nino point towards December 2010 as a marker for when this last occurred - as within the following Daily Mail article below:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3078581/Britain-set-battered-fierce-snowstorms-El-Nino-cycle-five-years-begins.html

However, we experienced a strong La Nina event (cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean) throughout the second half of 2010, not an El Nino event (warming phase of the Pacific Ocean). We did however experience an El Nino event during the harsh winter of 2009/10, but this does not specifically mean that we are facing similar conditions throughout the upcoming winter of 2015/16, or that this is an attributing factor towards it. In Layman's terms no two of these events in the Pacific Ocean whether it be warming or cooling has the same impact on weather events across the UK and Ireland.

We also forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 on the basis of solar factors by stating the following on the 1st November 2009;

“I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold?. “Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/6246570/Britain-will-have-mild-winter-if-you-believe-the-Met-Office.html

and again with the event we forecast from several months in advance for December 2010 (the coldest December in 100 years);

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html 

We also can't compare or rank these types of warming or cooling events in the Pacific to our weather patterns over a long time scale, as the information we have only takes us back over the last several decades. This doesn't leave us with enough comparative data to make a strong and confident assessment of how El Nino or La Nina events can impact our weather patterns in the long term for the UK and Ireland. It is also difficult to asses the strength of these events until the warming or cooling phase has concluded. 

Similar stories developed about the arrival and strengthening of an El Nino event throughout last year (2014) from certain climate scientists which never materialised (as suggested in our early 2014 reports to subscribers via ExactaWeather.com).

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140412-el-nino-weather-forecast-science-climate-change-la-nina/

A good hypothesis would be to consider the current period of solar activity that we currently reside in, and how solar variability can impact these cycles and other factors such as cloud cover. In terms of the current solar cycle and energetic eruptions that are earth directed, we happen to be in a period of extremely low solar activity that emits less solar radiation and favours more dominant cooler phases in the tropical Pacific.

Unfortunately, solar output is still considered as minuscule in terms of overall effect on our climate and weather patterns, and the sun-climate link is still refuted by many. It is also not correctly incorporated into model projections that currently suggest a development for a strong El Nino event later in the year. They therefore have a tendency to over-hype what is unlikely to be a strong El Nino event, just as they did throughout 2014. In reality, the solar radiation output is simply not there at present and it hasn't been there in recent years to create any major temperature amplifications of the Pacific.

However, there is a long-term relationship with a number of indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with solar variability. In terms of the summer period for the UK and Ireland throughout 2015, we are more favourable to experience a rather cool and wet period with a large number of untimely summertime storms, and parts to the far south will benefit from any better weather at times. This will be due to a prolonged displacement southwards of the jet-stream and a trend towards negative territory for the NAO and AO indices, in particular, with the NAO - not any developing El Nino conditions. However, all is not lost as there will be some occasions when the jet-stream will flirt northwards throughout the upcoming summer period (June to August). This diversion of the jet-stream will allow some warmer weather to push in from the near Continent at times throughout this summer, in particular, throughout the August to September period, but in general it is likely to remain displaced to the south of the country.

All as indicated in our 200+ day ahead subscribers report for the 2015 summer + various media articles in advance of current indications from conventional forecasters/meteorologists.

The following Daily Express article from the 9th April 2015 also stated the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.

“Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”

 http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

In terms of the upcoming winter period - we could be facing some potentially rather cold and snowy periods at times (exact details available in subscribers reports of particular months), but this would be in part due to low solar activity, and not the development of any strong El Nino conditions that are currently being over-hyped from elsewhere (also further details in subscribers reports).

A dated version of this update has also been posted here to refer to at a later date.

UPDATE ADDED: Thursday 14th May 2015 (10:45am) - James Madden