Sunday, 22 April 2012

UK Weather Forecast – May 2012


UK Weather Forecast – May 2012

As we head into May and the final part of spring, the picture is set to remain relatively cool for the time of the year. There will also be some further wintry showers of sleet and snow at times, especially across higher ground in parts of Scotland and northern England. There will, however, also be some periods of warmer and pleasant weather at times, but these are likely to be relatively short-lived in nature. Any periods of warmer and milder weather are more likely to be varied in terms of location throughout the month, whist also becoming confined to a certain part of the country. Basically, they are unlikely to become extensive and prolonged across most parts.

The temperature for the May period as a whole is therefore, likely to be near or below-average. The Central England Temperature (CET) for April also currently resides at an abysmal -0.5C below-average. A likely continuation of this pattern as we progress throughout the final part of spring, will mean my original hypothesis of a near or below-average spring in terms of temperature was just about right. This comes after the third warmest March on record, when others were forecasting an above-average spring due to the conditions being experienced at the time. Others were also suggesting nothing as they don't forecast this far ahead.

I stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too”


It is also likely to be relatively dry in terms of rainfall amounts throughout the May period too. However, drought-stricken southern and eastern parts will experience some much needed and heavy rainfall at times. This will unfortunately fail to ease the drought concerns in these parts as we head into the start of the meteorological summer.

I also stated on the 27th February 2012 in my original spring forecast that:

“March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter”

“The rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole”

My original hypothesis of near or below-average rainfall amounts/drought fears for the spring period will also prove to be just about right, if the remainder of my spring forecast balances out as expected.


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
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Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Remainder of April (Wind, Rain, Snow) + UK Easter Weather Forecast

Remainder of April

The start of April has featured some less milder days than expected in my original April update. I did, however, state in the same update that the evenings/mornings would also be particularly chilly within this period too.

I also stated on the 26th March 2012

“As we progress towards the middle and second half of April, it is likely to become relatively unsettled at times across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England. Some of this more unsettled and cooler weather is also likely to be occasionally wintry in parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also be particularly windy at times within this period too.”

Forecasting confidence is still relatively high for the remainder of April to become relatively unsettled at times in these parts, with some further windy and wintry weather across parts of Scotland and northern England.

I also stated in my original spring forecast on the 27th February 2012

“The March to April period is also initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times with some wintry showers in places within this period too.”

The following Daily Express article from the 3rd March 2012 also states:

Long-range forecasters warned spring is likely to follow the topsy-turvy weather pattern. James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: “The March to April period is initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times.”


Easter Weekend

As we head into the Easter weekend, it will initially turn more settled and milder than of late. The evenings and mornings will, however, remain particularly chilly across most parts (as originally forecast in my April update). Good Friday is likely to remain generally dry across most parts, with the odd light rain shower in places. It will, however, remain particularly cloudy, with the best of any sunny spells more probable across more southern parts of the country. Saturday is a very similar picture for most, with some occasional light rain showers possible further north, and more in the way of settled and drier weather further south. It will once more be particularly cloudy, with the best of any sunny spells more likely to feature across more southern parts of the country once again.

Easter Sunday and into Easter Monday will begin to see a return to more unsettled weather, that is likely to be accompanied by some heavy rainfall and strong winds, especially across parts of Scotland and northern England. This spell of wet and windy weather is likely to produce a number of severe weather warnings, as we progress throughout this weekend and into the early part of next week.


Looking further ahead to later next week, and it is once again likely to turn cooler across parts of Scotland and northern England. Some further wintry showers of sleet and snow are probable in parts of Scotland, and possibly northern England too. Elsewhere, should remain relatively settled and dry, with the possibility of some decent sunny spells and milder weather developing at times.



James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Content copyright © 2010-2012. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.