Sunday, 15 January 2012

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update

Cold, Snow, and Winds – Exacta Weather Update
15th January 2012

I stated three weeks ago that January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.”

I also stated over two weeks ago that “This is currently still how I see things developing throughout January and into February at present. Although the worst of the strong winds, cold, and snow for January, is more likely to occur from around mid-month onwards.”

So we are now at mid-month point and it has recently turned much colder with widespread frosts across many parts of the UK over the last few nights. As we progress through Tuesday and into Wednesday day, things are set to turn slightly milder, with some wet and windy weather across many parts of the UK during Wednesday. However as we progress through Wednesday night and into Thursday, some much colder air will push its way back in across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England.

This colder air will bring wintry showers across these parts during Thursday and into Friday. Some of these showers will fall as snow and accumulate in places, especially across higher ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland. I am currently expecting this pattern of colder temperatures, to become the more dominant feature over the coming weeks across most parts of the UK. I am also expecting this colder weather to be accompanied by frequent wintry showers across northern parts of the UK, with some moderate to heavy falls of snow possible at times in these parts too.

I also stated in my last update and since early September 2011 that “Potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features, are still likely to be a frequent feature at times throughout this winter. However the low pressure systems will offer more in the potential of snowfall than of recently, which could also include areas further south too.”

I also stated over two weeks ago and 48 hours in advance that “Tuesday 3rd January 2012 will see yet another area of low pressure arrive, bringing with it some strong winds and wet weather across many parts of the UK.”

Unfortunately two people died and many was injured as strong winds and rain battered many parts of the UK.



The professional forecasters and their £30 million supercomputer also failed to issue a relevant weather warning about the impending havoc until afterwards. Met Office officials failed to upgrade from a 'be prepared warning', until 8:15am, when it was upgraded to 'red', which the Daily Mail and Guardian articles above fail to mention.

A Met Office representative then went on to say

By Tuesday morning we updated the status to red to the areas most at risk when we had the information from overnight.” Met Office Representative

Forecast is grim for the Met Office, but are they at fault for missing Big Gail? (See Scotsman link below)


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published P: 15th
 January 2012 (23:37) GMTContent copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Friday, 6 January 2012

Where is the Snow & Cold?

Where is the snow & cold?

Since my early forecasts of last year, I expected the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to remain dominantly negative during the months of summer 2011 (June, July, August) and winter 2011/12 (December, January, February).

Now although this part of my forecast played out very accurately for my summer forecast, the AO and NAO indices have remained largely positive so far this winter. As I have stated many times before 'this factor has an important bearing on my winter forecast'. I really can't ignore the correlation between the two, as my methods strongly suggest that these teleconnections should already be negative, hence the lack of widespread snow and cold so far this winter.

However there are now some more prominent signs of a huge drop in the AO over the coming weeks, with a more neutral to negative state NAO also occurring. Now when this starts to happen the outlook for some true snow and cold rapidly improves, and confidence begins to grow with the statements I issued on Christmas Day.

1 .January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.

2. February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.

3. As I also stated in my 2nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”

4. I also stated on the 2nd September 2011 that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”

Now if this pattern change does lead to either or both of these teleconnections becoming dominantly negative, as my winter forecast suggests, then we may still see some records being broken in terms of temperature and snowfall this winter. Another important aspect to consider here, is the length of time this cold Arctic air has been locked in place for. This is also another reason why I have never updated or stated otherwise, in regards to the possibility of records still being broken this winter.

Potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features, are still likely to be a frequent feature at times throughout this winter. However the low pressure systems will offer more in the potential of snowfall than of recently, which could also include areas further south too. February and into spring is likely to see the most remarkable changes if things develop as expected, resulting in frequent and widespread snowfalls across many parts of the UK, with sustained colder temperatures too.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Thursday, 5 January 2012

5th January 2012 - IMPORTANT UPDATE

5th January 2012






The article above immediately starts out in defence of the Met Office and the hostility they received for their incorrect 2009 summer forecast.



The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer'




The author then chooses to cleverly emphasise on quotes and newspaper headlines to make people question my credibility. However in a way I can understand this in regards to the newspaper headlines, and this is when I should be 100% clear about what actually happened with all them newspapers. The truth is that I did not write or have any influence on any of those newspaper headlines, I did not even speak to one newspaper editor or journalist, the quotes was simply taken from 'updates' on Exacta Weather, yet they appeared in almost every British national newspaper. Seem strange to anyone else? Imagine how I felt. Now at first I was overwhelmed and ecstatic at the national coverage and thought people would recite the quotations from within the article from myself and not the headlines that was used to sell the newspapers. So as you can see, I did not seek no publicity whatsoever as the author suggests. I also never made any financial gains from any of those newspaper headlines, although I am pretty certain that the newspapers did.


So let's review one of those articles from the Daily Mail on the 20th September 2011 (Britain to be hit by SNOW in October... Forecasters warn early winter is on way)




It begins with


James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.



OK, so this was part of my autumn update and once again this was taken from the Exacta Weather website, I did not speak to any newspaper editor or journalist. We did also see some moderate to heavy snowfalls in CERTAIN parts of the UK during October and November, and this is why included this within my autumn update.


The Daily Mail article then continues with


'I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfall occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.



In all fairness and as an honest forecaster, my forecast has been well off the mark to date, and there has since been some revisions to my forecast for the remainder of winter and November. This is a little unusual for myself, as this is the first time I have ever had to seriously amend any of my forecasts. In my 8th November 2011 update I promptly explained that there had been a delay in some of these pattern changes, and although the latter part of November and into early December turned out roughly as expected, December as a whole was inaccurate.

The Daily Mail article then continues with


Huge swirly low-pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.’ He added that Scotland and the North would face the worst weather, including possible ‘blizzard-like conditions’.


Now although we have seen frequent low pressure systems, we have not seen the teleconnections enter a dominantly negative phase, as I expected. The NAO and AO were both dominantly negative during the summer months of 2011, and as I have stated before, this had an important bearing on my winter forecast. We have however seen the 'potentially damaging gale force winds' which I forecast before any other forecaster or weather organisation, and I firmly believe that this is due to some major 'long term' changes, in the major natural factors that I consider within my forecasts, and how they influence the 'long term' pattern of storm tracks.


I also stated in the same update in which all the newspapers extracted them quotes from that “The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter” yet not one of them decided to use this. Had I of had any influence on them newspaper articles, then I can guarantee that I would have included this part of my forecast too.


The Daily Mail article then continues with a number of incorrect quotes from other forecasters, including the Met Office, and not one of them mentions anything about strong winds in winter:


Netweather forecaster Paul Michaelwaite has also predicted ‘widespread’ snowfall as early as November. He told the Daily Express: ‘Over the past four years November snow has not been rare at all, and with temperatures below the average there is the chance of some widespread falls.’

Meanwhile, The Met Office has said that below average temperatures in October mean there is a chance of upcoming overnight frosts, which would be seen predominantly in the Midlands and south-east.


And Weather Services International agreed that October, November and December would be hit with temperatures approximately two degrees lower than the average. WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, told the Express: ‘We currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.’


OK, so let's head back to the recent Guardian article. Now I don't mind taking some flak for getting a forecast incorrect, in fact I would probably say this is all part and parcel of weather forecasting. I however won't be made a scapegoat for the ineptness of the professional forecasters. I will also not be used as some pawn in a political and agenda driven article from a loyal warmist, because I dare to question the authors beliefs on man-made climate change. There is a lot that the author also conveniently fails to mention in the article. For example, he chooses to emphasise only on the 2009 BBQ summer that the Met Office forecast incorrectly, yet conveniently forgets to mention that this was a long line of recent blunders from them and their supercomputers in terms of long range forecasting. He also conveniently forgets to mention what I forecast when these mistakes was made.


Let's take last winter for example when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread heavy snowfall as forecast by myself. I even contacted the professionals and told them to issue a severe weather warning, yet no forthcoming warning was issued. Check out my previous forecasts and the tweet on my twitter page from the 31st August 2010 here.






Then there is the winter of 2009/10 when the professionals once again foresaw a mild winter, yet we experienced widespread heavy snowfall throughout December, January, and February. The UK winter mean temperature came in at -2.0C below-average and once again as forecast by myself. I wonder why the author chose not to mention any of this?




Another example that he uses to discredit another forecaster within the article is an incorrect 2011 summer forecast, yet he fails to mention that the professionals issued nothing, or that I forecast this period with 100% accuracy and before any other forecaster.


As it stands I did actually respond to the author of the article before it was submitted online, for which I have still not received a response either. Now this is actually starting to get a bit personal, but I was back home for the festive period, and although I made time for the usual updates and weather warnings, it was impossible to work my way through the 700+ emails that I had received in this time period until recently. I may well be an undergraduate with a computer, but my computer or my methods never cost £33 million of the tax-payers money, and it has proved far more accurate too.

In regards to the comment about an independent audit from the author of the article, well this is starting to get serious when a national newspaper is asking me questions like this. Anyone is free to view any of my past forecasts and pass their own judgement on what I have forecast, when the professionals and computer models have been consistently wrong. Please note that none of my posts are ever deleted and remain intact on my blog and youtube channel. I really can't help it, if I have only had positives to highlight upon in my lifespan as an amateur forecaster, and even before the recent article was published, I did actually state in an update on Christmas Day, that my recent forecast errors would also be highlighted on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. The fact that my forecast has turned out wrong to date, proves to me that my methods of analysis are not foolproof, and the long term aim is to refine my methods to become even more accurate in the future. In fact, an article from early 2010 and from the same author titled Britain's cold snap does not prove climate science wrong also states that:

This is called weather, believe it or not, it is not always predictable and it changes quite often” Hickman and Monbiot (2010)



It is also a major relief to know that no-one has had to really suffer this winter so far, unlike last year when there was many unnecessary deaths, as many was unprepared for what happened. Surely it is better that we are over-prepared for harsher winters, especially as I firmly believe that they will become more commonplace in our near future.


Now the author of the article has made a lot of incorrect assumptions in regards to myself, and maybe he has made these same assumptions in regards to future climate change too. I am not dependant on false science as an income stream, and I don't have a warmist driven agenda, which I actually happened to believe myself at one stage in my life. I am simply telling the truth and will continue to do so, it is up to yourself as to whether you choose to follow or believe what I have to say. One thing is certain though, I certainly won't try and make your mind up for you, unlike others.


Certain people are trying to use one incorrect forecast of mine to justify their own mistakes, and after reading that recent article and all the confusion of the last few months, I am really starting to wonder how long it will be before the Met Office becomes privatised and I become a direct competitor. Why? Because I issue long range forecasts and they don't, and the plan will be to justify this once the transition has taken place.


How ironic and fitting too, a Guardian article below from 2009 before the Conservatives come to power titled “Conservatives may privatise Met Office”.